Vince Accardi is a MYTH

Please explain....

myth
noun

1.a traditional story, especially one concerning the early history of a people or explaining a natural or social phenomenon, and typically involving supernatural beings or events.

2.a widely held but false belief or idea.

I'm sure you can work it out spoon man

Nope. Isn't he a Punters Show tipster? Does he not exist? Is it really MondayMike with Nom de plume?

More like Jim 28.8 fitness %

Well if you're not able to explain ....what about Melb Punter, how's he goin?

Seems like a nice bloke but apparently didn't have much luck selling his tips

Oh well.

What's with this "myth" business then?

ffs are you a chinaman

are you a ghostbuster?

no a mythbuster

and typically involving supernatural beings

on the TV they usually do experiments and stuff to bust them....what have you done?

forget it you would need to know form to form your own opinion on the bloke
see ya going out for dinner

Fair enough.

Try the invisible rissoles, they're no calorie!

Elephant, are you a racenet supporter? As you have potted Pollett and Accardi

i remember a v Accardi tipping column alongside the other "experts" columns in the harold. Lasted about three weeks with a single short odds on winner saluting !!! Perhaps they could give Saint James a run ??

Good to see ure still kickin, Very.

Well I don't know how any of them go  but after a few watches lately, I have a confession.......

I have a man-crush on.................Glen Pollett

So he has to choose between you and TQ, thats a toughie

I do use racenet form guides that's about it

Spy the thread was intending to get a bite from you after i heard you were a supporter of the VA stuff? 

i watched a VA video a year or so back ... and as i remember he used to use the race replays to firstly time races and secondly record sectionals for each horse

doing this he says he proved to himself that the race times announced by the race clubs were often innacurate (for whatever that is worth)

in regards to sectional times .. in australia ... they won't mean THAT much unless you also take into account the pace of the race (having been run and the race your horse is entered in in the future) ... as often it the jocks not the horses that are the important factor at the finish based on who was allowed to what and where during the early/middle stages of a race imo

unlike american racing ... where sectionals are far more important ... as they pretty much go lickety-split right from the jump over there ... with the winner often being the one that 'compounds the least' at the end of the races

so i note with interest ... from what i understand is the gist of this thread ... that VA is having as much difficulty predicting winners in australia (based on a horse's previous sectional times) as other punters using available form and personal observations

outside of group and listed racing in Oz it is quite difficult to predict who gets the 'run of the race' regardless of which horses have an advantage over the distance with the weight and with the fitness on their side ... so if you can predict race positioning better than average then your chances of profitability would be higher i guess

i always remember up here in qld the sectional guru Phil Purcer saying one day (years ago) that Phelan Ready as a 2yo produced one of the fastest sectionals he had seen ... but by Magic Millions day and at 50/1 he had not backed the horse when it won

personally i loved times & sectionals ... but since the big boys started working with the jocks about 20 years ago and taught them how to count past 10 ... that type of race assessment is as tricky as the rest of the plans

punting is ... as always .. a tough endeavour ... know your horse from video assessment and work to get it up at odds on another day ... which is sometimes far away lol

interesting thread

i consider times to be the most important, but not only, factor in racing - the fastest horse will win the race often enough to make a profit imo

good on VA for going the extra yard - not that I'd pay for what he does, near enough can be good enough

TheElephant • November 23, 2013 9:36 PM GMT
Spy the thread was intending to get a bite from you after i heard you were a supporter of the VA stuff?  Laugh

I'm not sure where you heard that from Elephant, I have never purchased a single product from the punters show or any other provider, so I apologise as I won't be biting. I am honoured though that you hold me in such high regard

You get them all for free ffs

All I got for free was the MYM for about 1 month as they asked me to have a look at it and post up my honest opinion on it, which I did.

The only thing I would pay for is Crowformgoldpremium.com.au but the owner is a real coont and won't sell it to me

I won't sell it to you because I'm worried you'll give your honest opinion ffs

So you don't use the reviews or maps?

Definitely not

What would make you think I did?

watching TPS on fri aft ML says something like he and a certain judge will be waiting for the reviews to come through that are late

He gave you an inch and you took a mile ffs

Was it on punters show or preview show for Kenso?

Preview

part 1?

can't remember

ffs

At least we finally got to what the "point" of the thread was

i think it was part 1

Mr Spoon, I take it you have looked at the 2yo in next at Ballarat, did you think the fav looked a bit light or not?

Sorry Spy. Watchin cricket....wet tracks not for me.

Can't count on anyone these days No worries cheers anyway

I was a bit disappointed you never got me the fill-in Melb position for the MYM yesterday.

It was unrepresented at MV,,,,whatsisname on hols,  they said.

Thats because I thought your name was Warren Huntley ffs

Saw him once, near the pre-parade at the Valley. Twas a Grey's race

I'm sure he looked as confused as me

When you look at a grey and you think it looks a little big, it will be close to spot on

Yeah...and then there's the variations of "grey"

Can make for a grey day

Fav looks a lovely horse but I did give C Dancer a couple of tries recently.....odds seem generous?

No wet form?...like me

Nothing wrong with quin, you're better than you thought

Mr Elephant, if ML meant daily sectionals data, then he may have been referring to me as I do subscribe to that

Well you've changed your tune
"I'm not sure where you heard that from Elephant, I have never purchased a single product from the punters show or any other provider"

Very disappointing IMO

The problem is Vince himself, and or RSN have tried to turn him into a tipster, which is a total joke.

He is a provider of times and that's where it should end. The work he has done on RSN has made him out to be a fool IMO and partnering with that total moron, RH, makes him look worse.

The work Vince does in terms of times is good, and couldn't be potted. Unfortunately it would seem for Vince's sake there isn't enough people willing to pay for the data so he is forced to go and look like a monkey with RH and team RSN.

age old question - if his work is so good why doesn't he make his money backing his tips???  i guess it's the old ego thing again, same reason they all sell their stuff - well that and getting a steady income to cover the slumps

Heard him on RSN of a Sat and if you want to sit through 5hrs of torture, listen in and hear some of the absolute dribble they comes out with

You were referring to tipping products Elephant, so again I state I have never purchased 1 from anywhere ever

Don't forget you invested in 28.8, that counts in my books

Danehill, I think you will find Vince has plenty of subscribers.

earlycrow, that is purely an investment, a bit like the stock exchange, just getting in on the ground floor, seeing as I missed getting in on the ground floor with google, not letting another opportunity slip by

CrowForm are looking for investors with a view to float at the end next year

Only trouble is its got more chance of sinking than floating

You said you have never paid for anything from anyone and then you say you subscribe to sectional data?
So what do you pay for exactly?  and how much is it?

I did say that but in reference to me buying tipping info, maybe I could have worded it better by saying I have never paid for tipping info

I pay for race times and sectionals, costs around $3300 per annum

and they're obviously different to the free one's he puts up on the ATC website ?

I have never looked at site but doubt they would be different

Just had a look, they're the same

so what do you get for the 3300 ?   every meeting?  Aus wide?  NSW?

TheElephant • November 25, 2013 3:56 AM GMT
so what do you get for the 3300 ?   every meeting?  Aus wide?  NSW?

Hopefully enough winners to cover the cost


Every meeting thats barrier trials included covered by racing channels. NSW only

so you trust they're accurate?  the provincials must be out a lot according to him because his metro times are rarely much diff to the official (nearly always slower) and if they are they're all out by similar margins?

I'll bite at this point.

Reminds me of a HK syndicate that paid 6 figures for 10+ years of sectional data some years ago.

After 6 months of turning it every which way to no avail, they asked the supplier how he made it profitable.

He confessed he couldn't.

I suspect VA has a similar problem. (Those that can do, those that can't teach)

Sectional data is merely another factor, lipstick on a pig when used in isolation.

Exactly my point first_at_last - he is regarded as the new guru by some but listen to the guy and you might find differently

Provincial and more so country can be a long way out, close to 1 second at times, I only get them to compare to official times for accuracy sake, at around $65 per week to me is worth it for what I want, but having said that, in this day and age you would think it wouldn't be that hard for clubs to provide accurate times. As first_at_last said, times are merely 1 of many factors

Having never listened to RSN I can't comment on what is said on there

have a listen spy but take a few panadol before hand
and are you seeing the apparent bigger mistakes being more and more heavily backed or layed?

spyvspy27 25 Nov 13 04:48 Joined: 29 Jul 12 | Topic/replies: 3,475 | Blogger: spyvspy27's blog
Provincial and more so country can be a long way out, close to 1 second at times, I only get them to compare to official times for accuracy sake, at around $65 per week to me is worth it for what I want, but having said that, in this day and age you would think it wouldn't be that hard for clubs to provide accurate times. As first_at_last said, times are merely 1 of many factors

In 2011 to early 2012 when I was specializing in Victorian racing I noticed, to my horror, that many of the country and provincial tracks would give exactly the same last 600m sectional (to 1/100 of a second) for 3 or 4 races on the same day. And then I would look at another meeting the next day and see those exact times appear again. I concluded that this was not so much a case of inaccurate timing as deliberately misleading timing on the part of race club officials. Not only was it deliberately misleading, it was also a damn insult that they weren't even bothered to make their "fictional times" a bit believable by randomizing their numbers.

Anyone who, in good faith, uses the official last 600m sectionals for Victorian provincial and country meeting, is a victim of fraud. I suspect there may be a few official timekeepers around making an absolute killing by knowing the real times, as distinct from the outright lies that get published by the race clubs.

That is Vince Accardi's supposed "edge". He has his own timing methods. But it's how you use those times that determine whether you can win from them.

I don't ever remember seeing last 600 times for Victorian country & provincial racing before 2012.
I believe since then Racing Victoria have been publishing Accardi's times.

TheElephant • November 25, 2013 4:51 AM GMT
have a listen spy but take a few panadol before hand
and are you seeing the apparent bigger mistakes being more and more heavily backed or layed?

I get enough headaches from my own punting without getting more by listening to other people ffs

I have never looked at betting trends on times with mistakes.
As first_at_last said, times are just 1 of many factors, but if I am going to look at them at all, I want to be looking at the correct times

BHLL:

Not all tracks had the last 600m times, but those that did were clearly shonky.

I didn't know that RV have started using Accardi times. I stopped betting on Aussie racing about a year and a half ago.

I suppose if Accardi is making his times more readily available to the public it might explain his lack of profitability. Once the masses get in on the secret it stops being profitable. Much the same as what happened to Don Scott's methods after he published his books.

PP a lot of the country sectionals were/are hand timed

American trainers charged with fraud
Darryl Sherer - 25/11/2013
Three horse trainers and an employee of Penn National Racetrack in Pennsylvania, North America, have been arrested and charged with fraud in connection with horse racing at the course.

According to a statement issued by the office of the United States Attorney, 39-year-old David Wells, 63-year-old Sam Webb, 43-year-old Patricia Anne Rogers, and 63-year-old Danny Robertson were charged individually in four separate indictments.


Wells, Webb and Rogers, all horse trainers, are accused of devising a scheme to defraud those betting on thoroughbred races at Penn National by administering "substances prohibited from being introduced into a horse within 24 hours of when the horse is scheduled to race," according to the release.

The statement lists several instances of the trainers each being found with hypodermic syringes in their possession as well as prohibited substances.


Robertson was employed by the track as the clocker to provide racing officials and others with the official work times for horses at Penn National. He is accused of falsifying information in his reports.


The indictment alleges that Robertson was given cash by trainers to provide false work times to racing officials and that profited personally from the scheme.


Each defendant faces up to 20 years in prison and a $250,000 fine if convicted of wire fraud or attempted wire fraud. Rogers faces an additional potential 20 years in prison and a $250,000 fine if convicted of the charge of conspiring to commit wire fraud.

Interesting story, Spy

Makes you wonder how widespread the practice of giving incorrect track times is. And whether it also extends to actual race times. And whether any inaccuracies in U.S. race times are due to technical imperfections or deliberate manipulation.

Drugs are a huge problem in U.S. racing. They seem to be everywhere. And there are some drugs that are permitted in some states but not others. One of America's most famous trainers, Richard Dutrow Jnr, is currently doing a 10 year ban for a doping offence.

They seem to really throw the book at them over there.

I would just like to clarify my post on the previous page, my belief is that Vince is not overly well served by giving tips on RSN.

His sectional times product is extremely good and for mine he should be sticking to that niche as that is his area of expertise. I have used his product at length and found it extremely beneficial.

Interesting topic - you would think with improving technology it should be possible to get accurate times for all tracks before too much longer.  1 second is a very big difference

I guess even if he doesn't get his times right if he does it the same way every single time he'll be accurate which is a good thing. Of course that's only part of the picture - 1.10 for 1200m is slow at Flemington but pretty quick at MV for instance.  Add in country and provincial tracks and it's a real minefield

womble, he is accuracy has a tolerance of 0.04 of a second, which is 1 frame, so very accurate. The technology for correct times has been around for ages but the race clubs don't give a fk, the exception is RVL who have been more pro active by using his times for a lot of the Vic tracks

PittsburghPhil • November 25, 2013 10:58 AM GMT
Interesting story, Spy

Makes you wonder how widespread the practice of giving incorrect track times is. And whether it also extends to actual race times. And whether any inaccuracies in U.S. race times are due to technical imperfections or deliberate manipulation.

20% error, 80% manipulation. In the old days when they used to publish the trackwork times in the daily newspapers, the clockers might be asked by a trainer to post incorrect time or clocker might do it of his own accord and think he had an edge and bet up himself

thank Spy - my new approach is to focus pretty well purely on Sydney and Melbourne Saturdays so I'm hopeful those times, and the form leading into those races, are more likely to be accurate

in the Yank racing the 3rd section (timewise) is all important as that is where the early speed turns into further aggression & explosion before the horse's breaking point is reached

in oz racing that "3rd section" prior to the straight is not always a given ... and is more dependent on the 'setup pace' of the race meaning which jock or jocks have been allowed to dictate and at what point and at what speed

handicapping your jocks & the (likely) settling position is of greater importannce in Oz racing imo (as you already know the quality & ability of the horses)

and yes Jim .. fitness also .. however that is determined individually

Danehill123

I would just like to clarify my post on the previous page, my belief is that Vince is not overly well served by giving tips on RSN.

His sectional times product is extremely good and for mine he should be sticking to that niche as that is his area of expertise. I have used his product at length and found it extremely beneficial.

Best retraction I've seen on here, Dane

the theories behind what he does makes sense - find the actual speed horses want to go and see if they'll have the right conditions in the race they're in

lots of unknowns though - makes it all a bit hit and miss i think

SPOONHEAD

I agree with everything Dane said in his first post and his second was a clarification of the 1st not a retraction

As you where

Could VA be blinded by his own science?

Perhaps VA is unaware his 'unique' conclusions are achievable and overwhelmed by other factors.

I would estimate on their own they may contribute 10-15% of race assessment.

A useful tool, but not the whole toolbox.

Probably best not to confuse his ability to capture race times, with his ability to interpret and understand race times.

TINS - Crow is spot on, it was a clarification and not a retraction. As you were.

Spot on DT and first - having the right information is only part of the process