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Aussie Driver
11 Dec 12 01:45
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Date Joined: 08 Nov 04
| Topic/replies: 14,717 | Blogger: Aussie Driver's blog
Very interesting barrier draw for mine. I can see 4 or 5 very legitimate scenarios, and I suspect we will not know which will occur till the race commences.

Smoken Up the big loser, Terrorway maybe the biggest winner from the draw?

Cant wait!

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Replies: 148
By:
Lloydy Trots Man
When: 11 Dec 12 10:52
Race 7    SEW-EURODRIVE VICTORIA CUP (GROUP 1)    8:55 PM
M0 Or Better. * The winner of the following races in 2012 will be exempt from ballot for this race - New Zealand Free For All, Popular Alm Free For All and Cranbourne Pacing Cup. * This race is a leg of the Pacers Grand Circuit. * Acceptance Fee - $2, 000. RBD. Prizemoney: $400,000
2240 METRES    2ND LEG DAILY DOUBLE, 4TH LEG QUADDIE, 5TH LEG BIG6    MOBILE START
    Form    Horse    Trainer    Other Eng.    Driver         Class     Hcp
1    31466    MAH SISH NZ      T G Butt        Anthony Butt        C9 M1     FR1
2    s3221    TERRORWAY NZ      J P McCarthy        John McCarthy        C16 M9     FR2
3    11111    IM THEMIGHTYQUINN NZ      G E Hall Snr        Gary Hall Jnr        C43 M38     FR3
4    16901    THE GOLD ACE NZ      S J Reid        Tony Herlihy        C12 M5     FR4
5    12119    BITOBLISS      S C Stewart        Scott Stewart        C14 M7     FR5
6    3s234    MUSTANG MACH NZ (Em 1)      D F Braun    Yar Val 14/12/2012    Chris Alford        C12 M4     FR-
7    31262    PEMBROOK BENNY NZ      B Purdon        Zac Butcher (C)        C14 M8     FR6
---------- Second Row ----------
8    47134    SUSHI SUSHI      M Purdon        Natalie Rasmussen        C17 M4     SR1
9    333s5    FRANCO JAMAR NZ      J P McCarthy        Luke McCarthy        C16 M6     SR2
10    11111    WASHAKIE NZ      J P McCarthy        John McCarthy        C48 M37     SR3
11    15542    MELPARK MAJOR      A R Tubbs        Amy Tubbs        C24 M19     SR4
12    11211    SMOKEN UP NZ      L J Justice        Lance Justice        C59 M52     SR5
13    12943    CARIBBEAN BLASTER      A P Gath        Kate Gath        C15 M7     SR6
By:
Village Kid
When: 11 Dec 12 11:13
Lloydy Sushi is 21.0 with Tatts

GOLD ACE to cross, currently 13.0 & 3.40 Tatts, fantastic place divvie with the ICEMAN steering
sharp at the Auckland workouts Saturday

Race 9     MOBILE PACE. (4 or more Wins)
    Distance: 2200m     Weather: Fine     Track: Fast

Plc    Bk    Horse    Hcap    Time    Driver    Trainer

1    6    Gold Ace    fr    2-43.3    A G Herlihy MNZM    S J Reid
2    3    Ideal Scott    fr            J P Green & B Hughes
3    5    Mach Banner    fr            R J Dunn
4    2    Charge Forward    fr            S J Reid
5    4    Courage To Rule    fr            J P Green & B Hughes
6    1    Statesman    fr            A G Herlihy MNZM

   
Margins:    3 lengths, 1/2 neck, 1 1/2 lengths
Times:    Mile Rate: 1-59.4 Last 800m: 56.8 Last 400m: 28.7
By:
Village Kid
When: 11 Dec 12 11:15
I see Betty have the Inter market up
By:
Lloydy Trots Man
When: 11 Dec 12 11:32
Pre Post Betting Be Warned Reduction will be High if Bitobliss is scratched.
The big odds of Caribbean Blaster $51 is overs but i cant Confident have something small on if their is a Reduction
If Butt can hold the Lead. Sushi is a Moral. If im The Mighty Quinn leads will be an Interesting race as Lance wont sit back.

What i will have My big Winge about is the time of the race.
No F.cking Idea have they 8:55pm Thats 7:55pm for people in QLD and 5:55 for People in Perth
What time do most people Eat during Daylight Savings> 6-9pm

Ive worked 15 Years in the Gaming Industry and its a No Brainer to Hold anything Big during the times people are going to Eat.
It Should of been Run at 10pm Or yes 10:30pm and the last race 11:30pm.
The Obvious dont want to make as Much Money as they could on the night.
They also Have the worst 2 races as the last 2 races. They MUST want people to lave Early.
It should be the worst races the 1st 2 and in with a Good race not a 8k Claimer race.

Also they need to use their Brains and Change it from Victoria Cup to Melton Cup and Invlolve the Whole Shire. You wouldnt even know its on.
I honest would have to Pull the Back fence down to fit the Crowd in i could Pull if i was Marketing the race. And it doesnt just Involve Harness Racing. Id have the Biggest Little Aths Final on. So many other Avenues of getting a crowd of Non Trot People.
Id also have Rotary Club running Food so its Cheap and Money goes to the Community.
Insted they will Set up Temp Food Stall with Crazy price and Cra.p food.
Has been nothing even in Herald Sun talking about Horses. O yer let do a Big story on the day

They have attracted a great field and Barrior has made it a very interesting race.
Im Cheering Home Sushi the rest of the Card R8 no 1 Moral
Abetorpunt only if over $7 Im Racing down now to get that. Missed the $9. He will Be in a Good Position after start of race and may be in front at the Bell. Ive just talked my self to race down and have more on.

Khans Fav Horse off the front would love his Opinion. Id say Moral as who will stop him going to front?

Hutchy will be Tipping In Monarco like he has the whole year.

I still Cant believe they stuffed the timing up and Marketing has been shocking.
Yet ill be there.
Vodka Lime and Soda Please if you want to say Hello to me. (they dont have real lime and its Cheap Vodka and they still charge $8)

Lloydy
By:
Lloydy Trots Man
When: 11 Dec 12 11:41
I put mine on at 16s for Sushi with no Reductions.
The Gold Ace has always been a tease of a horse.
I was going to ask your Input on the Nzs i was shocked to see Mah Sish is a C9 M1 and only won 150k Ronny has a better record than that.
I dont have a Tatts Account only Odds Broker, Betfair and Baker Bet. Whom i owe money to after Chancellor Cullan.
I do have a $500 Free bet with Betezy if i Deposit $500. Their Site is like an Atari Video game. Worst Betting Site i have ever used.
By:
gardenstar
When: 11 Dec 12 11:58
Don't worry Vic Cup will clash with a maiden at Cranbourne night gallops and will be sent to Sky 2
By:
Lloydy Trots Man
When: 11 Dec 12 12:06
Im still in Shock of the Time Slot.
No Idea
By:
gardenstar
When: 11 Dec 12 12:09
Dont worry CEO is a GUN
By:
gardenstar
When: 11 Dec 12 12:11
gigantic useless nuffer
By:
Village Kid
When: 11 Dec 12 23:58
Lloydy the chances of MAH SISH leading are extremely slim, next to impossible IMHO
By:
Halyer
When: 12 Dec 12 00:34
Agree with VK, zero chance of leading Mah Sish. Doubt it will even hold leader's back
By:
Village Kid
When: 12 Dec 12 07:31
GOLD ACE, now 7.0 & 2.2 Tatts, typical, every bookie in the southern hemisphere is sh!t scared of me, LOL
By:
bigted.
When: 12 Dec 12 07:34
How good is Washakie going ConfusedJohn McCarthy has given punters a strong lead opting for him over stablemate Terrorway who scored 1stup lastweek Shocked

Andrew on terror
By:
Village Kid
When: 12 Dec 12 07:56
WASHAKIE is low flying, in career best form? (beat TMQ in the W.A. Cup).....the scorecard Washakie vs Terrorway is 2/2, but the last two to Washakie
I always thought Andy was a better driver than Luke but I'm sure theres plenty who disagree
By:
Lets Elope
When: 12 Dec 12 08:44
Quinnie is extremely conservatively a 5 length better horse than when washakie beat him in the Pacing cup and Washakie led on that ccasion and in reality Quinnie is probably closer to being a 10 length better horse than previously.
By:
Village Kid
When: 12 Dec 12 09:48
TMQ is beating up B Graders on his home turf, ridiculous unders at his current quote of 1.70
if he found the top and Smoken Up breathes down his neck he will fold like a house of cards
has to be driven for luck with a sit IMHO & lets wait and see how he handles the trip to Australia
By:
Craig The Speculator
When: 12 Dec 12 11:38
thats a massive call VK imo

going better than any horse since Christian Cullen for me ITMQ
By:
Aussie Driver
When: 12 Dec 12 11:38
Could not be more spot on VK

If they hold the front with Quinn he is a 10/1 pop. Has proven over and over he can't hack it with the big boys when he is driven like that. If they get the front they have to hand up to either Gold Ace or Bitobliss.

$1.70 is absolutely absurd
By:
Village Kid
When: 12 Dec 12 12:00
you are a wise man AD, lol

to clarify TMQ is a one of the best sit sprinters I have ever seen, sensational horse if things suit him
but how can he be considered a champion till he can sit in the death and put them away or get the top, get hammered and still prevail?
Blackie could much more often than not thats why he was the superfreak

lay all day at those odds for mine, if he wins so be it, get of the canvas and keep punching the next day
By:
elsu.
When: 12 Dec 12 12:56
i wish betfair would go up
ill be betting $2.00 for a bit of money
By:
Lloydy Trots Man
When: 12 Dec 12 13:21
Ok dont know if Herald Sun have jumped on Board in trying to promote the night.
They had a small write up today.
After Party after the Last. Im think Great thats what they need to do.
Then i read Special appearance David Murphy. They Couldnt Get Jet or maybe Shannon Nole or to a less Niki Webster. They Got David Murphy.
For the 99% of Australia that dont know who David Murphy is he is a Sensational trainer at breaking horses down.
Nearly won an Inter.
I laughed my head off.

Thanks for the Heads up Mah Sish. Happy with my Sushi Bet.
I think i went a bit Crazy on Abetorpunt. Have had $300 on so far. I only wanted $100 on but as you do when you are in the Tab you put a Mugs Bet on the Dogs and turn the $20 into 100. Slammed it all on Abetorpunt. Then again today went and had my $50 on my horse who i gave no hope but just incase i had my $50 on Of Course was waist ogf money drawing 13 of 1680mt race and race run slow.
Abetorpunt was just staring at me telling me PUT more on. I had a wallet full of Money and took it all up $100 into Guaranteed so Hopefully
gives me Odds $8.40 Abetorpunt.
Also took for $50 Icandoit, Abetorpunt Guaranteed $21.84 was the Odds
My Bets so Far
Sushi $100 @ 15s or 16s ill have to look
Abetorpunt $200 @ 7s
Abetorpunt into Guaranteed $100 @ 8.40
Abetorpunt, Guaranteed, Icandoit $50 @ $21.84

Im also going to Lay Im The Mighty Quin the Place. Wont Send me Broke. i just hope im not to Intoxicated and Reception for my Iphone will work out there. Last time it was terrible.
All my Proffit from Hk Spent with enough for Lunch today. God dam Nandos has gone Expensive. Chicken Combo, Extra Breast, Cheese Extra Hot $21.80. I havent had for a while. Im sure it used to be only $15 also the Chicken is smaller.

After Sat night ill either be eating Lobster or Steamed Rice for tea Sunday.
Putting all my Bets on before i go.

Lloydy
By:
Lloydy Trots Man
When: 12 Dec 12 13:36
Dam Hutchy is Tipping Abetorpunt as his Best Valu and Best Roughie Caribbean Blaster. He must of read my Post.
Best Bet Race 1 no 1.
Im tipping that will be Aussiebobs lay of the night bet.Its weak as Pisssss. If the pace is On Watch Steam Washed Go Whooska. Really like this Mare but Barroir is against her.

Lloydy
By:
Lloydy Trots Man
When: 12 Dec 12 13:40
R 3 Cut for an Ace should be nice odds with the draw he has
By:
Lloydy Trots Man
When: 12 Dec 12 13:45
Found one that Sould be Big Odds R4 no 8 The Ragpickers Dream.

Dam Abetorpunt just keeps telling me to put on more
By:
Lets Elope
When: 12 Dec 12 15:43
Smken up has been beating up on c graders and they still keep handing up to it it would have worried quinies camp if smoken up had drawn to lead its ngot no hope of beating quinnies currently unless it doesnt travel oer well and fails to settle in but all things being equal smoken up wouldnt see which way quinnie went.
By:
Lets Elope
When: 12 Dec 12 15:52
that should read as wouldn't have worried quinnies camp.
By:
leftrightout
When: 12 Dec 12 16:46
I think drawn gate 3 Quinn is obliged to be used out of the gate and lead.  There is no way I would come out and hand straight up to Bitobliss after last week.  If push comes to shove can always assess how the first 600 goes and hand up to Smoken Up if need be, you'd be disappointed if he didnt get you to the sprint lane, albeit not the best sprint lane going around.  In that case you wouldnt want a quality horse like The Gold Ace peeling off a good 3 deep trail.  But really Smoken Up is not the horse he was.  Quinn should man up and lead all the way.  $2 at IAS for those with a friend who has a losing account and like him.

Don't worry about B graders, Washakie has been beating C graders.  Pub Blitz, Mach Wiper and Karloo Mick. 

With all due respect to those who have been putting bread on the table laying the right favs for longer than I have, but I think Quinn will be winning.  Terrorway is gross unders at $8 TAB.  Gate speed isn't flash on the evidence provided, could be shuffled back in the running line a good way and had a dream trip last week.
By:
Aussie Driver
When: 12 Dec 12 21:44
LE, Smoken Up might not be quite what he was (still going better than most are giving credit for), but that is not really the point here. Lance is filthy his horse was not horse of the year last season, and still smarting about the Inter. And he knows how to hold a grudge.

If Quinn is in front Lance wants to world to see his bloke can stay better. He will masacre Quinn and neither will win. In fact neither will probably run a place.

I don't want to sound like I am knocking Quinn as he is a wonderful horse, but we have seen enough to know he needs certain things to happen against the very best outside of his own state. He has to either come out and then take a sit (which carries its own risk around Melton), or be quietly driven from the gate and let the others go at it (which they won't do as Leftrightout says, they will feel obliged to use the gate). It is a barrier which would have looked fantastic to most when they saw the draw, but I believe it is a trap for this horse.

Regardless, he is crazy unders at the moment.

LRO, I thought Terrorway was a good chance of crossing Mah Sish and depending on what else happens, might get a gun run thereafter
By:
Village Kid
When: 12 Dec 12 22:11
well put AD, Lancie is the ANGRY FLY IN THE OINTMENT
By:
Dark....Target
When: 12 Dec 12 22:27
I don't know much about the opposition, but have follow ITMQ very closely for years and if they are anywhere near the lead with him I'll eat my hat.

I don't think you can knock him because he hasn't sat outside the lead and still put them away, be like saying Brisbane weren't a champion team because they never won a premiership with Lynch at full forward and Brown at full back, why would they do that when that's not their go?
By:
Village Kid
When: 12 Dec 12 23:25
DT, you've lost me with the AFL reference......my point is the horse is one dimensional (like I said one of the best sit sprinters I've ever seen)
I don't mean to knock the horse, I'm just stating facts
I idolise horses with heart and tuffness, I can't put TMQ in that category
By:
Dark....Target
When: 12 Dec 12 23:31
Yep I do agree that he's one dimensional, but that dimension is a pretty good one!

What i mean is, leading isn't his go, he's explosive driven with a sit so I don't think it matters how he gets the job done, as long as he gets it done? The horse has won the last 2 inter doms and is a fair chance of making it 3 in a row this year.
By:
Village Kid
When: 13 Dec 12 01:29
can't argue with that I just wouldn't have a poster of him on my wall Happy
By:
leftrightout
When: 13 Dec 12 03:16
With Terrorway if it does cross the 2 and is on the back of Quinn and somehow Quinn does get it relatively easy then he can't sprint past him.  If Quinn does fold up (let's hope not!) then the sprint lane may not be any help to him and what I see is him being shuffled back in the running line.  I just think he is massive unders. 

Obviously I am in the Quinn camp but roughies I'd rather be having something on are Franco Jamar and Caribbean Blaster.  FJ was obviously not great last prep and still not far away from Terrorway.  Was just fair first up but can improve off the run and you'd be happy to be on him if they have gone crazy and he was peeling 4 deep into the HS.  CB who has never been one of mine, I thought was great last week.  Did the work in a fast third quarter and was coming again last 50m. 

But I hope they show some balls on Quinn so he can either earn some more respect in regards to adding another string to his bow or he can be known as a one dimensional horse at the top level.
By:
Dark....Target
When: 13 Dec 12 03:27
Wouldn't their main aim be to win the race, and later on win the Interdominion for the 3rd straight year?

I'd imagine winning the race would be slightly more important for the camp than winning respect Confused
By:
leftrightout
When: 13 Dec 12 03:36
Thanks for that Captain Obvious.  I just hope that is the way he wins.  It doesn't bother me how.
By:
Dark....Target
When: 13 Dec 12 03:39
Sorry mate didn't mean to sound like a smart @rse, just saying I wouldn't be trying to make him do something he isn't comfortable with in the race just to earn respect.
By:
leftrightout
When: 13 Dec 12 03:51
Yeah you are correct.  I guess the "good" draw ha made the race even better than if he drew the back row and they had no choice.
By:
leftrightout
When: 13 Dec 12 03:51
Yeah you are correct.  I guess the "good" draw ha made the race even better than if he drew the back row and they had no choice.
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