AFL GRAND FINAL HAW V SYD

Hawks have been whacking high scores at the G this season, Hawks OVER 90.5 points here, Hawks average at the MCG this season has been a staggering an average of 138.2 points per game at the MCG this season and going to get on OVERS 168.5 points Total Match Points. Also weather looks sunny at the G today

Going to the Wembley Hotel to watch the game, cya around guys and enjoy the big one

not so sunny now.....1 hour to jump and the rain and a storm is starting

Will blow over in 15 minutes

great fightback by the swans 1 point the difference now

THE BLUUDDY CHOKERS

Sewell V Sydney

Think the odds are wrong here.  Sydney strangling the Hawks here.  Even the first quarter the difference was clean hands.  Swans fumbling everything and Hawks couldn't capitalise, and now Swans have contained themselves and using the ball well.  In it up to their necks here, and have a good lead that Hawks will find tough to combat with difficulty in scoring in the first place.  Can't be backing Hawks therefore at ~2.20, as such they must be a lay.  I have Hawks closer to 2.40 so happy to let my longstanding Swans Premiers bet ride a little longer.

Sydney are 1.70 with rain about to come, Hawthorn haven't looked like scoring for over a quarter. Shouldn't the Swans be around the 1.30 mark by now?

Hope I'm wrong though, I'd rather see the Hawks win

7.0 to 0.2 since quarter time, amazing

All scoring to Hawks in this quarter, but that seems to be the end.  Swans within 10 have to be favs here so should still be around 1.70...
Swans all the way here.

humdinger of a final quarter coming up, Swans up 65-64

This is some game of footy, and BJT get fcked

but Hawks really shifted up a gear in that 3rd quarter

Swans kicking with the wind advantage in 4th quarter

On the Hawks Snake?  Hard call, momentum and all, but Swans have 3-4 goal breeze here.  Odds way out of whack...

great comeback by the Hawks, but the Swans have the wind which should be the difference. 2.10 is good value

draw imo

Luke Breust with 1st goal of 4th quarter

Hale with the snap goal for Hawks

The scoring end trend is being defied so far. If the Hawks get another 2 goals with this momentum they should be able to hold off the Swans

Next goal wins...

Ouch, big goal against the flow

Gonna be another draw

78-78

Shocking defence from Hawthorn

GOODSEY GET INNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

How good is Martin Pike with that pack mark?

That's the ball game right there

Both teams hit 1.25 or lower

Gunston his the post

its amazing what pressure in a big situation can do

GSM MALCESKI

1.20 Hawks backers burnt

1.20      $510
1.24      $600
1.25      $700
1.26 $3,239   $3,098
1.28      $1,126
1.29      $357
1.30      $6,201
1.31      $2,540
1.32      $188
1.33      $8,607

note to self...Joel knows what he's talking about....Lets knows nothing.....must remember  this  for next season.....

great game, right up there with the grand finals of 2005 and 2006. Well done Swans and Hawks for putting on a great match from start to end, a game of bursts

Amazing game. That was superb from both teams.

thats what I was worried about okeefe was the only one who could stop me from collecting on the medal but the game was a great result . Whoopi I maintained all along the swans were a massive chance all season and never wavered and tipped them strongly on here. so much for knowing nothing. Where's AD the hawks were a class above everyone according to him.

OKeefe deserved winner. I was on Haneberry and McVeigh. Both had big games.

LE you abused me when the Hawks were NOT IN THE 8 and I told you they were the team to beat. I was certainly closer to correct than you, wasn't I. You have got next to nothing right all year if you want to claim that you are a fool.

Well done Sydney, impossible not to like them found myself loving the way they gritted that out. The mentally tougher team got home, no doubt about that

Get Some Hawk On Ya Fork Tonight

Thank God the Swans won.  It would have been a travesty of justice had the Hawks prevailed with the umpires doing everything within their power to get them over the line.  F'ken disgusting watching their performance.  It's blatant cheating or incompetence of a level never witnessed before, and with these 3 umpires perceived to be the "best", hence their appointment to the GF, that only leaves me with blatant cheating.

Frees 21-10 in favour of the Hawks.



The Game:

Hawks didn't make the most of their chances early and again a few of their stars were missing in action. Mitchell fell away, Rioli was a passenger and Buddy again hooking badly from 40 out, as he did twice last week against the Crows when the pressure was on.  He's an amazing athlete/player but his nickname is not clutch. Roughead is another

I thought Shoenmakers, who cops that much $hit from his own supporters was their best........yeah I know many will say Sewell should have won the NS....yeah he had the ball 40 times and kicked it to nobody or the Swans on 38 of those.

Interesting Observation.  Hawks looked out of petrol tickets at the end of the game. Buddy couldn't compete and Mattner ran down someone at the end as well......the AFL screwing Hawthorn and giving Sydney the extra days rest - was it a factor?

powerfan...thats why the hawks got over the line in their last clash. Swans got robbed in the last qtr.
Umps won that game for the hawks in some shocking calls in the last qtr.

Yeah well they didn't have a good day today. Reasons unknown??

I do know this, they paid 1 ruck infringement all day and Hale kicked a goal when he dived forward (he also tried that again later but it didnt get called) and it got the Hawks back into the game having gone 40+ minutes without kicking one.

They didn't pay that holding the ball all day long either except that one against the Swans.

It didn't matter to me who won, i just wanted to c a good game and it was disappointing to c one team getting screwed so badly.

what fcken game were u watching?

1 ruck infringement all day??????

Um ....... try again. Mumford received one as well which was also very questonable. You obviously only watched part of the game.

The stronger team for longer won let's not talk about unpires. They had not one bit of influence whatsoever

They had not one bit of influence whatsoever

I disagree.

Hawthorn was never going to kick a goal if they played for 8 weeks. Then they get a gift freekick and Hale dobs it (missed easier ones i thought) and all of a sudden buddy pops up kicks one and they have 2 in 30 seconds and momentum.game on.

What did Sydney do to deserve the umpires giving the Hawks a leg up.

Frees were 21-10..if you think it had no influence, you're entitled to your opinion. A more accurate statement would be they didnt affect the result but they certainly had an influence.

Logroller...you wanna give me more info, what did you disagree with?

Well Powerfan, you have had plenty to say and been factually incorrect when you stated that Hale received the only ruck free kick in the game. Also, just because a certain team has more free kicks does not mean they are nor deserved.

Both teams had periods of extreme dominance where they were well on top. Sydney were just stronger for longer

All of the hawks vulnerabilities came to the fore today again when under extreme pressure as I stressed earlier in the week
Lets Elope
24 Sep 12 14:36

Hawks proven to be vulnerable when you pressure and shut down their kickers and swans can match them in the contested ball department and hawks defence is definitely potentially vulnerable as I have maintained throughout, it would be great to see Kennedy shove it right up them and be best on ground and leads the swans to the flag.

Your own words AD, you said you believed they were superior, you were wrong, be a man and admit it and you consistently rubbished me on here for correctly pointing out their vulnerabilities and at this time they were $3.50 favourites which I also repeatedly stated was massive unders.

Anyway he who laughs last.

Aussie Driver

15 Jun 12 15:09
Joined:

08 Nov 04
| Topic/replies: 11,396 | Blogger: Aussie Driver's blog

Do you see it the same way CS?

I just think they are superior, the only thing that will change that is key injuries (Hawks need Hodge to win it). But injuries are anyones guess so I am assessing it based on who is due to come back


Lets Elope
15 Jun 12 15:33
Joined:
05 May 06
| Topic/replies: 5,771 | Blogger: Lets Elope's blog



AD, Hawks lack leg speed, are still potentially vulnerable down back and lack mental strength and have become flat track bullies, no doubt they're in the mix and their best is very good but they are massive unders. They need to find a way to again win a really big game and they consistently keep coming up empty when it really matters in those games.

You are pathetic, you clearly were wrong about them stating they were massive under, guess what they traded long odds on didn't they. So they were never unders in June which is from the threads you quoted.

You were clearly incorrect but simply can't admit it

You could not have been more wrong, you yourself stated 3.5 in June was massive unders. Um ...... it was overs LE as history tell us. You been doing this long?

Lets, you have too much time on your hands

they got beat Ad
so in way you was both wrong

Well done Swans and backers. Great team. Hawks best team of 2012 but not best team in September. Goes that way sometimes and they were on the other side of that coin in 2008.

Nick I am happy to admit that.

When you look at the last two weeks they 40 more inside fifties in total than their opposition and lost on aggregate over the weeks. They clearly were not mentally strong enough to convert.

Happy to admit they have not proven to be as good this year as I thought they were. Certainly more accurate than the other boso though who was taking the easy option given that they were not even in the 8 when he was saying that

yes agree, they would be very disappointed with there effort today
there bottom half dozen got showed up big time today

Adelaide would have been a better finalist

They were definitely in the eight when I made those comments they were 3.5 favourites at the time so dont try to pass off that rubbish AD.

You can't admit you were clearly wrong and I that I was more accurate in my assessment of them than you. If they were 3.5 at the time and that was unders, how did they trade at 4's on then?

You can't give any credit which is clearly why you are an amateur at this caper by your own admission

like i said sydney wins !!

The point I was trying make AD is why tie up your money for 3 months at 3.5 which was unders when you could have made a hell of a lot more and still had your money by backing them in selected individual games with far less risk.  I can understand it if you're tying up money at something like 10's 12's, 14's etc but 3.5 was rock bottom odds at the time for what was an extremely open season.

It was a pointless exercise especially when I'm certain you would have got the same price at some stage today in  he run during the Grand Final about the hawks. Therefore 3.5 for tying up your money for that time period was a poor bet. I would have thought that was self evident without having to explain the reasoning behind it. In several games before the end of the season they would have traded at better than the 3.5 for the flag in the run during the betting of an individual game including the game in sydney several weeks before the end of the season.

The fact of the matter is they were poor value at the time and you declared them superior but now refuse to concede that you were in fact wrong, last time I checked you can't eat value especially a price about a team that clearly wasn't value when you could have got that price about them during an individual game and collected without tying up a large sum for months on end.

But Lets the 3.5 may have been necessary to balance a book. There is a team/player in pretty much every market that the market loves - Tiger Woods, Djokovic, Miami Heat etc. where you will never get a big price and in order to have them covered you might have to take a 3.5. It never went above that until the GF (as far as I am aware) so I'm not sure how you can suggest it was a poor buy for those who partook. You could easily argue the 3.5 was a better price back then than it was in running during the GF.

Taking Hawthorn at 3.5 was definetely not a pointless exercise.

BLOODS

If you had invested say 500 at 3.5 on the hawks rhino at that time you could easily made more on that 500 by backing the hawks in selected games including the geelong and sydney games and traded out on each occasion for plenty and then done the same in the finals and in the grand final without tying up your investment of 500 for three plus months.

Even if you were having a big bet I don't know say 20k and intended to use that position to be able to trade during the GF you would have still been better off using that 20k to operate with on the hawks during the regular season and the finals themselves again without tying up your stake for 3 months or more.

it's an irrelevant argument Lets. For those trading the GF market with a sensible approach the Hawks had to be covered. Their week to week price is a separate issue, the amount of money to be made backing week to week has nothing to do with the long term market.

swans won , because , well it was a factor i took in previous years form of the crws into account
its fantastic they got that far, but you can't deny they were 2 years 3 years 4 years ago couldn't win a game

i took that into account

hawks should of won by a mile, i think next year

would be be better for the crows they are like a rising filly ,

to many losses in that camp,

sorry but the crows background isn't good but they are a rising filly

next year would be better off backing them

was an easy bet imo sydney loaded up :)

Sep 29, 2012 -- 8:15AM, Lets Elope wrote:

The point I was trying make AD is why tie up your money for 3 months at 3.5 which was unders when you could have made a hell of a lot more and still had your money by backing them in selected individual games with far less risk.  I can understand it if you're tying up money at something like 10's 12's, 14's etc but 3.5 was rock bottom odds at the time for what was an extremely open season. It was a pointless exercise especially when I'm certain you would have got the same price at some stage today in  he run during the Grand Final about the hawks. Therefore 3.5 for tying up your money for that time period was a poor bet. I would have thought that was self evident without having to explain the reasoning behind it. In several games before the end of the season they would have traded at better than the 3.5 for the flag in the run during the betting of an individual game including the game in sydney several weeks before the end of the season. The fact of the matter is they were poor value at the time and you declared them superior but now refuse to concede that you were in fact wrong, last time I checked you can't eat value especially a price about a team that clearly wasn't value when you could have got that price about them during an individual game and collected without tying up a large sum for months on end.

Don't lie, you were not ever making that pont at all. Not at any stage. You were suggesting over and over they were not good enough. I conceeded very clearly on this thread they didn't turn out to be what I thought they could this year. I was a damn sight more correct than you, you were way off. You refusal to admit you were way off with them says a lot.

By the way nice selective work in going back and posting what you said. You were carrying on like a lunatic when they lost a game in Perth in about round 3 when they were indeed not in the 8 and I told you they were the best team in the comp. Interesting you decided not to regurgetate that effort of yours. You were clearly way off the mark, but can't admit it

Fark you AD I was right they weren't good enough and have been proven to not be the best team in the comp, you constantly tried to be a smart arse when I put forward a logical argument why they weren't superior and guess what I've been proven correct as the flaws in their team, the same ones I highlighted time and time again were exposed big time today.

No excuses, you were wrong and I was right end of story.

Like I said my whole point was which should be self evident without having to explain it to someone of your "abundant" knowledge is that they were bad value because you could do so much better if you believed in them by continuing to back them with your original stake during the season and the finals without tying up the same amount for three months plus even for a proven simpleton such as yourself surely that has to be self explanatory.

AD you then have the audacity to call me a liar and stupid, Go crawl back under whichever gutter you slithered out from, meanwhile I'll continue to count my money from laying that "superior" side, the hawks.

does everyone have to argue in this damn place, it doesn't compute with me seriously

we enjoy tip wins , and should back oh okay a bit off losses

why argue?

lol looks like only one of us can concede what we got wrong. You were so far off the mark in what you said about them a month in to the season it is laughable, now you are trying to spin you are right.

You never said anything about staking you are only making that up now to backpeddle and look for an angle. Unlike you to aftertime! Not one comment of yours months ago had anything to do with staking. After that game in Perth you said they were no good, truth is you had no foresight at all.

They traded at 4's on (maybe even shorter I don't know), you were not even close to be being right, as usual

in terms of logic the only reason any of you could argue is if you are 100 percent right

logic , which you arnt so why argue about percentages of anything

sorry but i see arguments and i dont understand them i had someone cal lme a retard, yet dont annoy me found it strange of course this is my first experience in a forum

these things just dont comput to me why are you arguing

it makes no sense at all to me

how can you make a forum become personal on sunrise that chick went into hospital, i been on her a few months i've had like a couple of attacks lately but dont effect me

it seems like everyone gets fired up apart from me lol

your on a computer typing stuff ?

all that matters is you have your hot chick next to you drinking cocktails, imo

you win the bet or you dont

the only conclusion i can come to is you are not enjoying yoru life or something?

as i said my first forum, lik ethat chick that was on sunrise went into hospital

why are you people arguing like this? like calling names and all that

like why on earth would you even care if someon called you a lier on a forum?

i seriously dont get it?

AD
Winners are grinners and losers can please  themselves.

Your the one who is supposed to be the all knowing punting guru why should I have to explain the logic of why I said they were unders to an "expert" such as yourself,  I made the statement I consistently stood by it and I was correct, end of story.
If you couldn't figure out or comprehend the logic behind my statement about the hawks being unders that's your problem and maybe you're not the all knowing guru you think you are.

Unlike you I don't claim to be a punting guru, just a good judge.

Now that the season is over, I think some forumites should consider investing some time " on the couch ".

Anybody know what Odds Sewell went to on Norm Smith.
I had my Bet matched at $2 so i doubled my Money and made something.

2012-09-29
17:25    2225395823     2012-09-28
00:58     Grand Final - 29 September Hawthorn v Sydney / Norm Smith Medal / Brad Sewell
Lay          2.00    320.00    Won         320.00    351.00
    2012-09-29
17:25    2219853699     2012-09-24
23:20     Grand Final - 29 September Hawthorn v Sydney / Norm Smith Medal / Brad Sewell
Back          15.00    90.00    Lost    (90.00)         31.00
    2012-09-29
17:25    2219853303     2012-09-24
23:12     Grand Final - 29 September Hawthorn v Sydney / Norm Smith Medal / Brad Sewell
Back          14.50    30.65    Lost    (30.65)         121.00

That was the lowest price matched, for quite a bit from memory. Problem they get there votes in before the end of the game. In a contest like that the final 10 minutes should really decide who the B.O.G. player is. I also think it must come from the winning team.

Na i was on Voss the year Buckly won it. So Losing players can win it.

Yeah, I know it can, but it doesn't feel right when it does.

Crazy voting for BOG on assumptions.  What happens if the North Smith Medallist gives away a double 50m penalty to lose them the game in the last few minutes, gets reported and ends up getting weeks, etc etc.

29-Sep-12    Win    1996 Win AFL-NRL Premiership Double SYDNEY/MELBOURNE  @Price:$5.25=Return:$525.00 (All-In)        5.25    525        $100.00    $0.00
   
Grand Final - 30 September / Bulldogs v Storm / Match Odds   
Melbourne Storm    Lay    2230690322    30-Sep-12
01:40         1.2    250.00        1.2    30-Sep-12 18:47


Still want Storm to Win. But If i dint do same with Sewell i lose.

Go Storm

Sorry Winkler just re read your Post.
Im same should come from Winning Team.
ail is Buckly threw Medal into Yarra after the game.

So lets say Buddy kicked 18 goals yesterday, and Hawks lost by 10 points, you wouldn't give him BOG?

Nope. Cause he would have probably kicked 18 goals 27 behinds and cost his team with inaccurate kicking.

I think there's a fair chance if an individual player somehow kicks a lazy 18 goals in a GF that your team is going to win. Sewell traded for plenty at even money I laid off some at that price as well.

I placed the Bets the night before. Hit Keep inplay.
Went around mates to Watch Game/Drink/BBQ drink till 4am.
Then today when checked Balance was shocked to see Bet Matched,
Pretty Happy i was.
Outlayed 1200 for the weekend Collected 2100
World Record 6 weeks in a Row i have made a Profit. Taxation will make an enquiry on my accounts soon thinking im getting a 2nd Income and not Declaring it.
I just received a letter that i never Declared $4 of Interest i never Declared that was in an account i didnt even know of, that i have 28 days to explain or they May take legal action.
I called them up, poor kid on the phone didnt know how to explain it. He had to get 2 Managers to find out how the $4 of unclaimed Interest over 45 mins of all their time.
I heard 3 different reasons i still dont know. Now i have to send in my Bank Statements and they have to Re do my Tax.
All over $4 of Unclaimed Interest.
Good side of it i have an account that was opened up as a kid it had about $88 in it. I went to the Bank and they couldnt find the account after 20 mins they found it, it was set up by my Mum so i need her signature to WD the money.
The Bank staff said i have to open up an account with them to transfer the money as it was an old account.
I open up the account then told i need my Mums signature. I said please im 40 why do i need my Mums Signature to WD from an account that i didnt know i had. After 20 mins they finally decided i could WD the money. i then asked to Close all accounts down that took another 15 mins and 14 was the staff trying to get me to keep open and move everything to them as i had been a loyal customer.
This $4 has cost so much.
The Taxation send pretty scary letters out

was an easy form ussumption , just as easy as the nrl game tonight

storm are better in finals

was no different to the form assesment that crows hardly made the finals hawthorn ill poforemed

easy bets
imo

Cheer Cheer the Red and White

what an effort, never say die - 2 Flags in 7 years a fair indication of how good a team we are imo

seeing as it's not after-timing if you lose??? had $10 on Hanners to win the Norm Smith at $32.50 at the Tab on the way to the pub - how the fark was he not BOG???

Lloydy -pay your taxes

Did you just get home womble?

Joel

Just woke up - Was a BIG day

Couldn't back up for the NRL GF so just watched at home - luckily the doctor came up with a certificate for a couple of days

It was the greatest momemnt of my life

did you go to the game Joel???

would've been brilliant to be there - i think some of the folks at the pub I was at wish I had a ticket

I was there....was there in 05 too but I think this was better....at least I had 30 seconds to enjoy it before the siren sounded

wow, i'm very jealous Joel - i'll have to go next year

Why didn't you go this year? Not a member?

not a member, better sign up next year

Yes you better.......when Malceski kicked that goal.....was best thing ever