Successful punting

Yes I just worked it out ...well sort of it's about life really...Here I show you!

   http://youtu.be/I4IFIegBFug

But don't blow a seal ffs ..here look

  http://youtu.be/R9ETlTZoF1E

Uhhh
16 Jul 12 13:14 Joined: 13 Jul 12 | Topic/replies: 139 | Blogger: Uhhh's blog
More like 0.01%
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I'm better than I thorght ffs

Thanks Lazza very funny!!!!

Yes Judge and LTF going at here to ..very serious stuff

   http://youtu.be/M-V9L4U4xVg

How long you been following Horse Brommans?

Judge wears the exact same coat too lol

Um, apparently I am in the 0.01% as well...
Now why would I want to share my strategies so I can join the 99.9%?

probablu the way to make punting pay is to specialise and know more about what you are betting on than the average betfair customer.
another way would be proper money management.

You need all that and more, Bromwich.
Risk management is my number one skill. I always have a way out, or a least objectionable risk.

Crazysnake do you mean say you back team A at $2 you will put in a position to lay them at $1.50 and take the profit? or if it goes pearshaped you get out at $4 and take the loss?

Easy to win.  Make sure yous get 20% to 30% overs.   And you are right 7 times out of 10, thats easy.   As to how you pick them its up to you, cause thats what makes the market.  If you dont get your price just watch the race.  Patience is the big advantage over a long period of time.   Dont expect many to believe me but Im up 900% over 3 years.  Sadly I dont bet big or Id be rich now.

I mean, because Betfair is as much a trading site as it is a betting site, if you take a position with a view to trading out and it goes the wrong way you need to know where the quickest exit is, how, and with whom.

I see it this way:

In any given system, the component with the greatest flexibility rules the system. In this case, I have high flexibility and can skin a cat a dozen different ways.

MM makes a great point. Patience and the willingness to sit out is as important, if not more important than what to bet.
Amateurs can't help themselves. For a pro it's nothing to do with entertainment.

I do my own ratings, frame my own markets, have my own speedmaps and try to only bet on class 2 handicaps/rating 58 handicaps or better - of course I get bored and can't convince myself to stay out of maidens

I make a lot of money from Rugby League and Ice Hockey (alot ) (when it's in season)

Good grief! Ice Hockey ffs lol

I just watch that for the fights!

it's easy CrazySnake, how many times do you see them pull the goaltender in the dying minutes and in turn conceding a goal which gives them a loss by 2 goals as opposed to 1, that 2 goal margin normally covers the 1.5 handicap

hmmmm, so you bet the games where the fave is -1.5?

not every game, I have a method to it, a little spreadsheet

I think Brom wants your rating system Ed...That's his question to you.

my rating system for hockey?

who is Brom

Money management and the ability to read the market can see you profit on any sport, code, race available on BF.  You don't NEED to know anything about what you are betting on, you just need to know the numbers, and have a money management system in place.  Anybody that sits and tells you you can't profit by betting on more than one thing has no ability to think that anybody doing anything different than themself can profit because they see themselves as the best thing going around.  Not at all uncommon on the BF forums.
When I first started on here, I bet on every race, every day, for 18 months starting with a 3k bank and turned it into an income.  At no point did I ever have an opinion on the horse I was backing.  Most times I didn't even know its name.  And no I certainly wasn't trading.

To profit on here you either need a very good knowledge of what you are betting on, or a very good ability to read the market.  If you can have both, then you are ahead of the rest.

Reading Markets..I don't know about that..Sure you get some big discrepancies but you can't just really on a Market to predict an out come...impossible imo

Uhhh, BJT wins on 4 codes cos he's full of it.
You and I both know different, but who needs to prove that to him?

I didn't say anything about trading.  What I said was all about punting.  But reality says that he is asking how people win on BF, so trading would be perfectly acceptable to point to.  Not that I did anywhere, that is just an assumption you made.

You only profit on one select code STS.  That is just you.  That is why you have an opinion that nobody else could possibly profit on multiple codes.  Because you can't.  You have people in here telling you they do, long term punters, and because you can't, you state it can't happen.

snake, how could you possibly know anything about what I do?  At the end of the day, as you said yourself, when footy season finishes, you will be job hunting.  Have fun with that.

And at the end of the day, all I have said, is when I started I profited for 18 months.  I have NEVER made a statement about what I do or do not make on here.  That is all assumptions from you.  What I said is that you can make a profit on here on market reading alone THAT DOESN"T INVOLVE TRADING.  1 bet per race, on any race you like, regardless of who it is, where it is, the track conditions, whatever.  You don't need to state how your minds can't comprehend how that is possible, but it is.  This is a numbers game.

But snake has access to all my betting activities, so he can post that up to prove how full of it I am, even though I NEVER said that I am profitable in the first place, let alone how many codes I am profitable in. 
Unlike others here, I don't make up statements pretending they are quotes.

Quotes of me saying that please?

I do AFL, and dabble in NRL, but 90% is AFL, if not more.
This is my 10th year and if I did any more than AFL I would lose my mind.
I have a horse racing database but I never even look at it.

I know several people who make very good profit on multiple codes (sports).

To the OP, I may be wrong, but given your start date and the fact that the only posts you have made in the last nine years are on this thread, this looks like a wind up.  Anyway it is unlikely you will find people willing to share the secret to their "edge".

Shiraz,

In my opinion you can do multiple codes, but not at the same time. For example, I do NFL in the AFL off season but wouldnt be able to do both concurrently.
I don't think it's a wind up, but the true essence of my edge would never be divulged here.

I never actually said I was winning on any.  Did I?  All I said is it is very possible.

But just for you, your maths is way out.

2 codes.  AFL and cricket.

Why is it that you would need to spend 60+ hours on each code, every week of the year to be able to have a valid profitable opinion on them?  You are saying that while AFL players are off to Bali, you would need to be doing 60 hours a week.  AFL season and cricket season are at different times of the year, and it is very conceivable that even if your assumption of 60+ hours form study per week were neccessary, that you could easily cover those 2 codes.
Your argument just doesn't even add up at all.

Most bookmakers bet on anything going.  For racing most of them simply subscribe to odds compilers for their starting odds and then work from there.  They mainly work the numbers and supply demand.  Can't tell me they do 60+ hours a week for every different code they bet on.

Doesn't take a genius to figure if BF average traded price long term returns 100%, that if you can read the market and average 5% better than average traded price that you have a profitable strategy.

Those 18 months I refer to on here, I backed the favourite, in every gallops race in the country simply chasing the best price I could get.  All that done on 0 hours research per week.  That is the only claim I have ever made on my profitability.

There are bots out there that simply chase ridiculous prices ffs.  The user isn't even watching the market, they are just seeding the low liquidity markets and comparing them to tote/bookie prices and trying to get 30%/50%/100% better odds and happy to let their bets run knowing long term they profit.  People simply laying 1.01 all day and winning long term.  People actively trying to spot mistakes in the market and happy taking the value.  Doesn't matter what code you do that on, it is a profitable strategy on any market.

This thread is about profiting on BF.  Not a **** swinging contest on how you can't profit unless you do 60+ hours research.  I am sure there are people running bots that took less than 60 hours to build, and have spent 0 hours in the markets since and depending on the purpose of the bot will run it on any market where they have comparitive odds.  100% better than average bookie prices on any market in the world is value.

Many different ways people profit on BF.  Video replays and hours of form study is merely 1 of those ways.

But then, what would I know.

Fair enough CSnake, no doubt it can be time consuming depending upon your method.

As BJT has pointed out, "value" can be found by scanning the markets and picking off the cherries (pretty sure he will be targeting the next big bash, I know I will).  It is just a matter of which tools you use, where you look and how confident you are that you have found "value".

I switched away from horse punting because of the work load. It was immense when I was doing it, but computing has taken away a lot of the "leg work". Watching videos is where it's at, but even watching one race for me took a long time because I used to try and watch individual runs, so I had to watch each race at least 6 times.
How do you shortcut that process?

Uhhh (are you STS?).

Anyway, I cannot disagree with what you there, sports are different, so, in that respect we agree.

I never mentioned horse racing because I don't know enough about it to comment and I am happy to accept what you say as being correct.

Sorry, should read......."Anyway, I cannot disagree with you there, sports are different, so, in that respect we agree."

We are not talking about the same league.  We are talking about people making a profit.  Full stop.  YOU are the only person that ever made the rule that you had to be a replay form student to be included in those making a profit on BF, and that is only for your own ego.

You have just pointed out what a waste of time reading through most of your posts actually is.


Uhhh • July 16, 2012 2:23 PM BST
BJT he asked regarding punting not trading ffs and what i said it right if you think you can cover two codes being a punter and think you are winning is just total garbage you cant and anyone that says they can are liers simple as that

off course there are guys using computer programs that can do many more but imo and im talking about top Judges a program punter vs a old fashioned video replay form student would imo be not in the same league, he could show a profit but he would get far more races wrong vs the video replays punter.

So which is it?  Total garbage, or in your opinion making profits over several codes using a different process to you?

Shiraz, STS is the only one here that set the rule that the only people that can profit on Betfair are betting on horse races, and the only ones that can do that are studying the videos.

Simple fact is most profitable punters on BF would not touch horse racing.  And a lot would be betting on a fair group of different event types.  But this is his world, we are merely visiting.

Where horse racing is concerned, I have never quite understood trying to handicap races using the same methods as the people you are trying to beat.
If everyone uses 1.5kgs to 1 length where does your edge lie? I mean to some degree the question is rhetorical, but interested in thoughts.

Theres a lot more to it than that CS..speed of the race will determine overall time as well..so not necessarily that fastest Horse always wins.

Not saying I subscribe to that idiom, lazza, just wanted to know how you guys approached itm broadly speaking of course. No trade secrets here

Thanks STS, I remember your thread where you challenged yourself to 1 month profit backing every race with $100 (or something like that).  I had serious doubts about that and you proved me (and Da_Judge and a couple of others if I remember correctly) very very wrong and happy to be proven that way.

I never doubted him Shiraz...you and Judge give him up cold lol

Hi Errol, (lazza), the only reason (which I think I pointed out on the thread at the time) was the fixed bets and betting every race, which was very restrictive and therefore very difficult.

Had a couple of glasses of shiraz tonight, so taking a while to respond, have to proof read each post a few times.

Sorry guys ..got some Greek things to look after..later mans

All good Errol, I always enjoy the banter, don't get on here often enough.

Uhhh 16 Jul 12 13:38
next question from earlycrow


what's money management?


Money management is knowing when it is time to turn your money and start stacking it sideways

shiraz
16 Jul 12 16:18 Joined: 14 Jun 04 | Topic/replies: 5,015 | Blogger: shiraz's blog
Thanks STS, I remember your thread where you challenged yourself to 1 month profit backing every race with $100 (or something like that).  I had serious doubts about that and you proved me (and Da_Judge and a couple of others if I remember correctly) very very wrong and happy to be proven that way.


That was a mighty fine feet, unfortunately was also the last winner tipped LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO

I am staggered that you could bet in every race and turn that kind of profit. I guess the secret of your success, and this leads back to the original thread, is absolute dedication and focus on your chosen sport. How's that for punting advice, Bromwich!

BTW, with that level of success where did you actually bet? I don't know any bookmakers that would take that kind of pounding for 8 minutes without closing you down, much less 8 weeks.

Backing Winner = Successful Punting

Monday mike
Date Joined: 08 Sep 08 Add contact | Send message
When: 16 Jul 12 13:39 Joined: Date Joined: 08 Sep 08 | Topic/replies: 1,729 | Blogger: Monday mike's blog
Easy to win.  Make sure yous get 20% to 30% overs.   And you are right 7 times out of 10, thats easy.   As to how you pick them its up to you, cause thats what makes the market.  If you dont get your price just watch the race.  Patience is the big advantage over a long period of time.   Dont expect many to believe me but Im up 900% over 3 years.  Sadly I dont bet big or Id be rich now.






agree entirely mike.... you have to know your percentages..... and then wait ..... and wait.... wait some more cos it's getting harder.... and then pounce like a starving tiger.

CrazySnake
Date Joined: 26 Jul 04
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When: 16 Jul 12 15:56 Joined: Date Joined: 26 Jul 04 | Topic/replies: 1,609 | Blogger: CrazySnake's blog
Where horse racing is concerned, I have never quite understood trying to handicap races using the same methods as the people you are trying to beat.
does If everyone uses 1.5kgs to 1 length where ur edge lie? I mean to some degree the question is rhetorical, but interested in thoughts.


the edge lies in using that handicapping data as a derivative.... assessing it as a percentage chance as well as just a number. Then you can combine it with "other" percentages, derived from a database for eg., and form a "unique" calculation. At least, that's what i do

It seems nobody uses that equation in its raw form and that would seem consistent with having the edge you guys have.
It would be like me saying Essendon beat Collingwood by 12 and Collingwood beat Carlton by 24 so Essendon beats Carlton by 36.
It just doesn't work that way.

....... it's remarkable how often a footy triangle faarkkks up. You could do stats on it and use them to frame a market i reckon

I have an equation for ya...work out the triangle and then do the exact opposite. You'll make more money

We do ...when we feel a disturbance in the force lol.

I typed out an explanation of my triangles don't work for the sake of the thread and then accidentally hit refresh instead of post and lost the entire thing. So in short, human error is another reason why people don't win

earlycrow
16 Jul 12 22:22 Joined: 16 Jun 10 | Topic/replies: 5,635 | Blogger: earlycrow's blog
shiraz
16 Jul 12 16:18 Joined: 14 Jun 04 | Topic/replies: 5,015 | Blogger: shiraz's blog
Thanks STS, I remember your thread where you challenged yourself to 1 month profit backing every race with $100 (or something like that).  I had serious doubts about that and you proved me (and Da_Judge and a couple of others if I remember correctly) very very wrong and happy to be proven that way.


That was a mighty fine feet, unfortunately was also the last winner tipped LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO
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Very disappointed with the lack of abusive response, the old Greeks gone soft ffs

FFS!!

My recommendation is to remain unsuccessful. Otherwise you lose 24% of your profits to Betfair & will get disenchanted & leave punting altogether.

Making a profit is not wanted by anyone.

must be awful making a profit

Womble i need to win tonight just to make sure i can pay the bill. Otherwise i will be paying them off by instalments. Ridiculous charge! & i won't stop bagging them for it.

My advice to anyone taking up punting now - is don't bother

I agree the charge is a shocker and terribly structured but still, must be nice to make a profit - hopefully I'll do that next season

Good luck tonight Kye

if you have a couple of hours Bromwich you could do worse than reading this

http://www.paladinvest.com/pifiles/MungersWorldlyWisdom.htm

an essay by Charles Munger (Warren Buffet's offsider) and in it he concurs with posts here to bet rarely and very selectively but when the odds are in your favour to load up

takes great discipline to do tho

Wonderful article, but geez they are merciless with chiropractors aren't they!

yeah i love discipline too.... particulary with black boots and a v..gin whip .... yeeeoowww you beauty.

Susan Li does some things for me tooo ... just watchign bloomberg..... gf doesn't know it yet... but she's in for some fun in next ten minutes

You should jump on to DA's thread V and tell us all about it?