lay betting suggestions

See if you can get hold of "Gold Coast Investor".. He is the man with the plan...Think he goes by the name of "Whoopi" now.

Just  remembered  must  be  no  less  than  10  runners  in  UK  handicap  system  as  above.

is that right Laz?

What do you think?...pretty good ha?

Ex NSW boy... punts the same too lol

temlees been here 9.5 years and is still looking for answers!
****n tough game this, lol

lol

I can tell you something that does'nt work.

Laying 12/1 shots at 30/1, anywhere.

Its a tough game laying here with markets at 98 to 102 %.Less the 6.5% commission its  a loser .

I also had some success trading the UK  fields, its fairly easy to green up for a few $$$.That gets wiped out when one does'nt get matched and invariably wins by half the length of the straight.

Its uncanny the number of times you  lay something and dont get set, gets beaten,Then you lay something at under the current offer, it gets taken and bolts in.

Im with lazza, its more and more a lucky dip for the punters and a boat race for those with vested interests {jockeys}

Bet for recreation only.

Good luck with anything else, let us know if you succeed.

Temlee

2012
Handicap only
>9 runners
Favourite
< $4

1016 runners, 273 winners -5.9% ROI before commission so lay profits of > 1%

DT- where did you get those stats from? Is that TAB odds?

My own database (UK), they're Betfair SP's

cool, thanks.You must put a ton of work in!

Only setting it all up initially, its all automated now so updates itself

How  about  you  go  back  to  your  database  and  find  out  how  you  can  win  laying  horses  to  lose

Sorry sir - I'll get right to it.

Alternatively, I can just wire you however much money you would like to win?

You  won't  have  any  you  spent  it  all  on  your  database.
Please  stop  the  crap  any  suggestions.

I've got plenty of suggestions.

One of them would be for you to go and get fcuked. I was trying to save you some time by giving you the results to what you were doing, but I can see gratitude isn't something you posses.

not a nice response temlee.

DT's info was good.Perfect in fact.

I've got plenty of suggestions.

One of them would be for you to go and get fcuked.


D_T  ...  a classic ... and the correct answer for sure ... to what it was responding to

ROFL, thanks for brightening up by afternoon
Now in all seriousness, DK, this is very interesting stuff. I have a database for Aussie but not for UK.
Does it work something like Southcoast? Is the DB adapted from something like Southcoast or similar?
I have done all that work locally. Cost me nearly 15k to set up. Still not using it...

temlee very gracious chap isn't he

There are quite a few of them in the UK (unlike here). I get all my data from Proform, the software has endless possibilities including an in-running module for those sort of strategies if you wish. The owner (Simon) is as good a bloke to deal with as you will get.

The software is about $200 to setup which comes with about 15 years of back data (compare to about $2500 for Southcoast), a system builder and all the usual stuff. I don't use the software at all, only export the raw data into my own database to interrogate.

Same same, DK. I dont use their algorithms, just my own.

That is extremely cheap for the software and back data. I don't know why I bothered with Southcoast...wishing I hadn't now.

It is. There are about 5 providers in the UK all around the same price.

And the Proform software is absolutely top notch, makes Southcoast look like its running on a Commodore 64

I  didn't  ask  anyone  for  a  statistic  ananlysing  report  I  asked  if  anyone  had  a  system  or  any  suggestions  obviously  there  are  no  punters  replying  just  statistic  experts,  with  plenty  of  data  and  no  lay  betting  knowledge.

Southcoast still use Foxpro. That was decent 10 years ago. Now it's just crap.

temlee, we hijacked your thread to discuss something more interesting. Please get back in your box.

Yeah its sh1te, but it is blisteringly fast. You can export a years worth of data in Southcoast in about a minute.

Temlee - how you propose to evaluate whether your system is successful? You have 2 options, do it yourself for a year, or ask nicely for someone to test it for you and find out in a few minutes.

I doubt anyone will be willing to help you know though.

Crazy - do you have a database of historical AFL results and odds?

Also do you have an algorithm to come up with your rated odds or just do it by "feel"?

Dark,

There are a few AFL based DBs around. I used to do mine in house but historical data for AFL is usually only good for about one year. I am not a subscriber to the old "this team has had the wood on that one for years" mentality, although game styles do make that difference and some teams play a game style that troubles others. It's nothing whatsoever to do with personnel after 5 years though IMO.

Have a hunt around. This one will get you started: http://www.footyform.com.au/

I do the year in hand but I no longer bother with the bigger task as the value in it is questionable for mine.

I make subjective judgments based upon feel, but I rate the prices per a pragmatic algorithm I created.

historical  data  is  great  people  need  tommorows  data.

Yeah I've seen that site... I have an AFL database I put together from footywire but struggled to get enough historical odds data to do the testing that i wanted to do

I suspect the algorithm I use for probabilities in my racing betting wouldn't be used by many (if any) in Oz sports betting...

But i need a huge amount of data to make it possible for the predictions to be accurate

Temlee - I can put you onto a mate of mine, Biff. He has a sports almanac he might be willing to sell you?

Horse racing systems fall into the same category as trying to determine the outcome of future football games based upon previous results. Whilst some data can point to an advantage or otherwise, resting solely on the bigger picture will send you broke.
You need to know WHY teams or horses or whatever finds an advantage. If you are looking for repeatable data to create a system the rules have to make sense. Tem, on the surface the rules of your system don't make alot of sense unless you can say exactly why they would or would not work...

Dark, I assume from your response that you are relying upon a bell curve...

historial data on AFL, results and betting odds is useless any further back than 3years, maybe four

Loggy,

Didn't I pretty much say that?

Tem,

I can post an article from an old book I have called "Making A System". I would have to type it, fortunately I am not a one finger typist.

Similar to that, yes.

Most definitely don't use systems of any sort, wouldn't give you 2 bob for a horse racing system.

The basis of any market I look at for something like this, is how efficient the market actually is. I can tell you there is definitely inefficiencies in the AFL head to head markets but didn't have enough odds data be accurate if i introduced more than a view variables....

When you say "inefficiencies" what do you mean?

what r your inefficencies in AFL head to head, Dark. the only inefficiencies i can see is that if the oods shorten or drift is that the line very rarely keeps adjusting to the selling odds

Guys - this is nothing even close to a system.

Loggy - of course I respectfully disagree. Take a simple variable, "distanced traveled" or "home team". The impact of these variables has hardly changed over the course of the last 10 years.

There are many more predictive variables you can use that haven't changed over the years. Sure air travel is easier these days, but the effect of travelling and the amount of time the home team wins barely has.

Loggy - the market (even on betfair) is heavily biased toward the home team for start.

I have to make this point here because I feel it is grossly misunderstood:

EVERYTHING is a system. The difference between the type of system we are talking about and race ratings in their various forms is that a "system" attempts to circumvent the vast amount of work required for a more traditional rating. Ratings are, however, still a systematic means of processing and interpreting data.

So can we say: "We don't subscribe to the value of shortcut systems."

not really bias towards home teams but to home fav's.

Not just faves, Loggy. I think Dark has a point.

no short cuts crazyone, just watch every game week to week

I would say a system is something with a set of rules?

Isn't a horse rating system exactly that?

How can something so simple and so obvious like home teams be biased on a supposedly efficient market like Betfair? It's staring everyone in the face yet its still there...

There are no doubt many more but it's not worth my while at the moment to investigate further without all the data i need

I sidetracked a bit...

I would prefer not to debate that too much. I don't think anyone will be changing anyone else's mind any time soon.

no rules, unless you r ZR and even then rules are always broken i'm talking sports not horse racing then i would agree to a set of rules/system

I can tell you why, Dark....

Because there is fck all volume unless we put it there. Most guys don't show up for a bet til 2 hours before the game.

Yes a system is, mine doesn't have any rules.

It has many variables that a regression algorithm decides how much weight to give each depending on circumstances before producing the final probability.

I can be a pedant but I won't. I would prefer to tackle the more interesting facets of this one.

crazy u were going to say rules=system.......system=rules
werent u

Regression needs a whole stack of data points.
So then you are talking about general trends rather than specific data points, being a horse's form.

Loggy

ie. so generalised trends for horses with a particular set of characteristics, rather than specific ones?

This is a fascinating approach! I would never have thought to tackle it in that way, if that in fact is what you are doing...

Yes that's closer to the mark.

At some point i'll probably just buy the historical time stamped data from Fracsoft but for the time being its on the shelf for other things.

Crazy thats my point - I wouldn't imagine many are doing it this way

My mind is officially blown
I need a break lol

If I say more than 3 "wow"s in a 2 minute period I walk away from my desk...

See ya.

me too, i'm going to give birth to a little mrben

LOL!

I was just thinking i need to take the kids to the pool (no inference to mrben on my part)

Ok, wait I had to come back. My mind is racing...

So let me get this straight...I can make profits if I can create a set of principles such that the vast majority of horse perform to these "rules"

So for example, if I know the percentage of horses that win first up after a 6 week break I can include that in my calcs? Or not that kind of thing?

Ok, kids come first, we can pick this up later.

Ok on the original subject at hand...

I would suggest an idea that yields -5% on only 4 rules has potential. A tweak here or there might get you over the line. Eeven break even could be useful.

If you're a PC player it might be a way to normalise your profits and reduce the PC you pay. That alone might make you 20k per annum!

Temlee  if  you  go  to  racing  and  sports  a  good  website  they  have  a  customised  form  sheet  which  may  be  helpful  to  your  needs  its  not  hard  to  work  out  and  i  find  it  very  handy  i  understand  a  database  is  not  what  your  looking  for.

Sort of Crazy. A bloke by the name of Michael Nunamaker wrote a book on what you are suggesting, i.e. how often horse win off a 6 week break. I believe his method was to give each impact value (don't use strike rates they aren't accurate) a weight and combine them together. I believe he was succesful but its seriously flawed...

Take a very basic example of, a horse off an inside barrier who loves the wet. Two very good variables on their own, but what about when you combine them together on a track where the inside is off when its heavy? You have no way of correlating the 2.

Now take logistic regression (a vastly superior option). One of the most predictive variables Benter and Woods (the best in Hong Kong) had in their model was how many starts a horse has. On its own it really shouldn't give much indication to their winning chances... But lets say you add in the horses average speedrating with its total starts. When you combine the 2, the regression algorithm can determine the correlation between them. It knows that a horse with 2 starts and an average speedrating of 100 going up against a horse with 100 start and an average speedrating of 100, the horse with 2 starts is more likely to win because it can tell that as the less starts a horse has had, the more likely it is to improve.

Thanks  clarkie55  it  took  70  replies  but  finally  someone  came  up  with  a  suggestion

My  database  tells  me  that  Richmond  won the  flag  in  1980  so  if  they  took  the  same  side  into  this  weekends  game  I  would  be  able  to  sell  my  database  to  that  fella  who  spends  15K  setting  them  up,  and  back  them  would'nt  that  be  lovely.

Ok, Dark, well I get that point...

I guess there was a lot of trial and error for you to come up with a working model. Ironically, you HAVE to use past results as an indicator of future performance, something which itself has the potential to be deeply flawed.

WHEN  YOU  GET  A  DATA  BASE  THAT  CAN  TELL  YOU  WHAT  IS  GOING  TO  WIN  OR  LOSE  TOMORROW  POST  IT  ON  THIS  TREAD  STOP  DREAMING  HOW  THE  PAST  IS  GOING  TO  TELL  YOU  WHAT  WILL  HAPPEN  TOMORROW  YOU  ARE  JUST  A  COMPUTERHEAD  NOT  A  PUNTER.

Temlee - I have no interest in what horse is going to win tomorrow, my only interest is in getting my win probabilities more accurate than the rest

temlee,

If I'm not a punter then what the hell have I been doing the past 10 years?

Let's be serious for a moment. IF I had a successful method/system that I could share with you, why the hell would I? You're obnoxious!

Looking  at  your  database  thats  what  your  been  doing,  by  the  way  when  did  you  last have  a  bet  if  you  haven't  then  get  your  database  and  get  of  here

you  nor  your  database  has  nothing  to  do  with  lay  betting  or  lay  betting  systems  or  any  suggestions  concerning  the  subjet  so  just  go  to  bed.

You're an idiot. You're asking for punting advice but it's apparent to me you wouldn't know a good idea if it crawled up your a$$ and set up camp.
Take a bottle of vallium and pray for death.

and  to  you  dark  horse  as  you  said  your  just  not  interested  in  what  will  win  tomorrow  so  you  may  as  well  go  to  bed  to.

A  bloke  asks  if  anyone  has  a  lay  system  or  any  suggestions  and  runs  into  a  couple  of  cockroaches  yeah  thats  right

Here's a suggestion:

Lay everything to 101%. You'll make money

Thanks for the entertainment temlee, honestly you couldnt make this stuff up

Usually I have to troll for a target. This is too easy.

Dark....Target • July 5, 2012 6:54 AM BST
Temlee - I can put you onto a mate of mine, Biff. He has a sports almanac he might be willing to sell you?

DT... that stuff re no. starts a horse has had.... is invaluable when used the right way like benter and woodman did. It's V important with my own ratings.... i connect it with weights in the most unlikely ways and find it a great predictor of "improvement". They're flesh and blood and they wear and tear same way as humans. A lot easier than just looking at "times" wouldn't you say ???

..... just forgot to put a few of these in for the champion gryahound.