Australian
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
I've been laying horses in the UK overnight with moderate sucess the system I apply is from the frontline lay betting website whereas I go through the cards in the UK and only lay in races that are handicap one's.
lay all favourites that are under $4.00
Usually through the week there are between 1 to 4 bets placed on most nights
Saturday meetings there can be up to 6 or more lays
Betfair advertise 20% better odds and with 5% com it really is a hard tarsk
but never the less this system does win slowly with lots of ups and downs
Is there anybody out there that has a lay system that definately works either in the UK or Australia who would like to post there system here for us to see
I know that this sort of thing has been bantered around before but maybe someone out there has something we can get a quid out of please reply if you have. IN DETAIL.
lay all favourites that are under $4.00
Usually through the week there are between 1 to 4 bets placed on most nights
Saturday meetings there can be up to 6 or more lays
Betfair advertise 20% better odds and with 5% com it really is a hard tarsk
but never the less this system does win slowly with lots of ups and downs
Is there anybody out there that has a lay system that definately works either in the UK or Australia who would like to post there system here for us to see
I know that this sort of thing has been bantered around before but maybe someone out there has something we can get a quid out of please reply if you have. IN DETAIL.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 89
|
By:
See if you can get hold of "Gold Coast Investor".. He is the man with the plan...Think he goes by the name of "Whoopi" now.
 |
|
By:
Just remembered must be no less than 10 runners in UK handicap system as above.
|
|
By:
is that right Laz?
|
|
By:
What do you think?...pretty good ha?
|
|
By:
Ex NSW boy... punts the same too lol
|
|
By:
temlees been here 9.5 years and is still looking for answers!
****n tough game this, lol |
|
By:
lol
|
|
By:
I can tell you something that does'nt work.
Laying 12/1 shots at 30/1, anywhere. Its a tough game laying here with markets at 98 to 102 %.Less the 6.5% commission its a loser . I also had some success trading the UK fields, its fairly easy to green up for a few $$$.That gets wiped out when one does'nt get matched and invariably wins by half the length of the straight. Its uncanny the number of times you lay something and dont get set, gets beaten,Then you lay something at under the current offer, it gets taken and bolts in. Im with lazza, its more and more a lucky dip for the punters and a boat race for those with vested interests {jockeys} Bet for recreation only. Good luck with anything else, let us know if you succeed. |
|
By:
Temlee
2012 Handicap only >9 runners Favourite < $4 1016 runners, 273 winners -5.9% ROI before commission so lay profits of > 1% |
|
By:
DT- where did you get those stats from? Is that TAB odds?
|
|
By:
My own database (UK), they're Betfair SP's
|
|
By:
cool, thanks.You must put a ton of work in!
|
|
By:
Only setting it all up initially, its all automated now so updates itself
 |
|
By:
How about you go back to your database and find out how you can win laying horses to lose
|
|
By:
Sorry sir - I'll get right to it.
Alternatively, I can just wire you however much money you would like to win? |
|
By:
You won't have any you spent it all on your database.
Please stop the crap any suggestions. |
|
By:
I've got plenty of suggestions.
One of them would be for you to go and get fcuked. I was trying to save you some time by giving you the results to what you were doing, but I can see gratitude isn't something you posses. |
|
By:
not a nice response temlee.
DT's info was good.Perfect in fact. |
|
By:
I've got plenty of suggestions.
One of them would be for you to go and get fcuked. D_T ... a classic ... and the correct answer for sure ... to what it was responding to |
|
By:
ROFL, thanks for brightening up by afternoon
Now in all seriousness, DK, this is very interesting stuff. I have a database for Aussie but not for UK. Does it work something like Southcoast? Is the DB adapted from something like Southcoast or similar? I have done all that work locally. Cost me nearly 15k to set up. Still not using it... |
|
By:
temlee very gracious chap isn't he
 |
|
By:
There are quite a few of them in the UK (unlike here). I get all my data from Proform, the software has endless possibilities including an in-running module for those sort of strategies if you wish. The owner (Simon) is as good a bloke to deal with as you will get.
The software is about $200 to setup which comes with about 15 years of back data (compare to about $2500 for Southcoast), a system builder and all the usual stuff. I don't use the software at all, only export the raw data into my own database to interrogate. |
|
By:
Same same, DK. I dont use their algorithms, just my own.
That is extremely cheap for the software and back data. I don't know why I bothered with Southcoast...wishing I hadn't now. |
|
By:
It is. There are about 5 providers in the UK all around the same price.
And the Proform software is absolutely top notch, makes Southcoast look like its running on a Commodore 64  |
|
By:
I didn't ask anyone for a statistic ananlysing report I asked if anyone had a system or any suggestions obviously there are no punters replying just statistic experts, with plenty of data and no lay betting knowledge.
|
|
By:
Southcoast still use Foxpro. That was decent 10 years ago. Now it's just crap.
|
|
By:
temlee, we hijacked your thread to discuss something more interesting. Please get back in your box.
|
|
By:
Yeah its sh1te, but it is blisteringly fast. You can export a years worth of data in Southcoast in about a minute.
Temlee - how you propose to evaluate whether your system is successful? You have 2 options, do it yourself for a year, or ask nicely for someone to test it for you and find out in a few minutes. I doubt anyone will be willing to help you know though. |
|
By:
Crazy - do you have a database of historical AFL results and odds?
Also do you have an algorithm to come up with your rated odds or just do it by "feel"? |
|
By:
Dark,
There are a few AFL based DBs around. I used to do mine in house but historical data for AFL is usually only good for about one year. I am not a subscriber to the old "this team has had the wood on that one for years" mentality, although game styles do make that difference and some teams play a game style that troubles others. It's nothing whatsoever to do with personnel after 5 years though IMO. Have a hunt around. This one will get you started: http://www.footyform.com.au/ I do the year in hand but I no longer bother with the bigger task as the value in it is questionable for mine. I make subjective judgments based upon feel, but I rate the prices per a pragmatic algorithm I created. |
|
By:
historical data is great people need tommorows data.
|
|
By:
Yeah I've seen that site... I have an AFL database I put together from footywire but struggled to get enough historical odds data to do the testing that i wanted to do
I suspect the algorithm I use for probabilities in my racing betting wouldn't be used by many (if any) in Oz sports betting... But i need a huge amount of data to make it possible for the predictions to be accurate |
|
By:
Temlee - I can put you onto a mate of mine, Biff. He has a sports almanac he might be willing to sell you?
|
|
By:
Horse racing systems fall into the same category as trying to determine the outcome of future football games based upon previous results. Whilst some data can point to an advantage or otherwise, resting solely on the bigger picture will send you broke.
You need to know WHY teams or horses or whatever finds an advantage. If you are looking for repeatable data to create a system the rules have to make sense. Tem, on the surface the rules of your system don't make alot of sense unless you can say exactly why they would or would not work... |
|
By:
Dark, I assume from your response that you are relying upon a bell curve...
|
|
By:
historial data on AFL, results and betting odds is useless any further back than 3years, maybe four
|
|
By:
Loggy,
Didn't I pretty much say that? Tem, I can post an article from an old book I have called "Making A System". I would have to type it, fortunately I am not a one finger typist. |
|
By:
Similar to that, yes.
Most definitely don't use systems of any sort, wouldn't give you 2 bob for a horse racing system. The basis of any market I look at for something like this, is how efficient the market actually is. I can tell you there is definitely inefficiencies in the AFL head to head markets but didn't have enough odds data be accurate if i introduced more than a view variables.... |
|
By:
When you say "inefficiencies" what do you mean?
|