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17 Jun 12 13:11
Date Joined: 26 Jul 04
| Topic/replies: 2,414 | Blogger: CrazySnake's blog
I decided to create this thread early because I am curious about pre game pricing.
I am going to frame my markets and will be interested to see how far out I am versus corp pricing upon opening.
I framed these prices BEFORE I looked at the Bettie pricing, but did look to see if I was miles out on any.

All markets to 100%. If you want to have a go, please feel free. You can't be wrong (yet).

1.60 Sydney v Geelong 2.66
1.50 Collingwood v West Coast 3.00
1.70 Fremantle v Essendon 2.43
1.45 WBD v Brisbane 3.20
1.30 Melbourne v GWS 4.30
3.50 North Melbourne v Adelaide 1.40

Note the bot has set up on the Sydney v Geelong market already in match odds, margin and tribet. Obviously, this person believes they know the actual pricing this far out. Very suss!
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Report bigted. June 22, 2012 1:11 PM BST
wowee..great game here..can't tip a winner ...drawMischief
Report Lets Elope June 22, 2012 1:15 PM BST
stevie J what a great mark under pressure and then hawkins finally kicks the goal
Report Zedative. June 22, 2012 1:17 PM BST
Fck off Lets you been bagging the horse Frankel every chance you get with your pathetic formline debates even comparing a import who got beaten 12L behind him a stayer wholast raced over 2400m first up over 1400m in Aus LOLOLOLOLOLO how many imports flop having there first start in Aus ffs

now after he wins you want to say you never bagged the actual horse get fcked pull the other one bagging him every chance but after he wins your now saying you never bagged the horse only his formlines how pathetic is that lololol  fck if he got rolled the other night you would have been the first to start a thread bagging him like you already have on here

Your could not spot a good horse if he run past you 2m away

btw fantastic formline study by u Lets comparing Frankel with the Stayer who flopped at Bendingo flush all of Europe's form now because of a Bendigo flop you Genius CrazyCrazyCrazyCrazy
Report Lloydy Trots Man June 22, 2012 1:20 PM BST
Syd went defensive to Early.
Cant Understand why not just Sit Reid in the square.
Genuine target at moment as soon as goes in Swans forward Cats sweep it out to easy.
Report Lets Elope June 22, 2012 1:26 PM BST
well done swans what a great game though in the end
Report Lloydy Trots Man June 22, 2012 1:27 PM BST
Report Lets Elope June 22, 2012 1:37 PM BST
Zeditave far be it from me to attempt to conduct an intelligent debate with someone who clearly is out on day release but am  still waiting for any evidence where I said he was no good, good luck finding it because I never said that at any stage. At no stage did I say he was no good I said he's a very good horse  but his rating is nowhere near justified until he actually beats something with some ability, the form line around him is shocking to say the least, pathetic would be closer to the truth.
You can be as impressive as you like against also rans, until you actually beat something you deserve a relatively high rating but certainly not the greatest of all time.  So may I suggest that you take some chill pills and go have a good lie down before you do yourself a serious injury.
Report Zedative. June 22, 2012 4:41 PM BST
you already said this on the other thread copying and pasting from thread to thread lol
Report Lets Elope June 22, 2012 4:45 PM BST
Says the stalker
Report Zedative. June 22, 2012 4:51 PM BST
Your the one chasing me from thread to thread copying something you wrote on other threads and pasting them on the latest thread i posted in you clown
Report CrazySnake June 22, 2012 4:56 PM BST
Just block eachother, will you. You are filling up threads with bickering.
Report Lets Elope June 22, 2012 5:01 PM BST
I was on the footy thread minding my own business and you posted on it , clearly you haven't taken your chill pills zed , i prescribe a good nights sleep and you'll probably feel a lot better in the morning.
Report Zedative. June 22, 2012 5:03 PM BST
have a shag and you won't be so grumpy
Report pokeron June 23, 2012 2:41 AM BST
ok back to footy. wow what a game. the adel north game could be similar in the first quarter to last night's game imo. adel talls grab big marks and kick 6-7 in first stanza and north odds blow.

meanwhile gonna enjoy some dim sum before the eagles game. go the eagles! go luke 'super shoulder shrugger' shuey!!!

gonna chuck a little 30 bucks on brisbane and go to lunch :)
Report Kye June 23, 2012 2:58 AM BST
Lions have good ins & Bulldogs a big out. I'm thinking Lions will play well but dogs may scrabble in so taking Lions with the +18.5
Report wombleoz June 23, 2012 3:57 AM BST
Cheer cheer the red and the white Cool

just needed that last kick to get inside the post instead of hit it CryCryCry

Pies easily today, Same with the Bulldogs
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 4:07 AM BST
The pies may well win wombleoz but if the do I'm tipping it won't be easily, the eagles have set themselves for a big one and think they're a real chance of knocking them off and making a huge statement.
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 4:10 AM BST
anyone know who A Kasim is? The jock sound more like a pakistani spin bowler than an a jockey and more importantly can he ride?
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 4:10 AM BST
wrong thread sorry
Report Aussie Driver June 23, 2012 4:16 AM BST
I suppose when you are an expert on everything it is hard to post on the right thread.

Pies and Bombers just win today, Freo are decimated and Eagles have the worst MCG record in the comp in recent times due to the press not being as effective there.

The Lions/Bulldogs game is a bit of a raffle
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 4:25 AM BST
Say the self proclaimed I don't bet on football guru, pot calling kettle black anyone, glad you don't the eagles can win AD, because you're a huge chance of being proven wrong, yet again.
Report Aussie Driver June 23, 2012 4:27 AM BST
That is right, I don't bet on everything. Those who do this for a living understand that.

You on the other hand don't know what you don't know, I see you are an expert on overseas racing now Laugh No idea of the work required
Report BJT June 23, 2012 4:36 AM BST
It would really baffle you AD how little time I spend on form and still go pretty good.  Been living off it near a decade.  Good luck with all your hard work......Confused
Report Aussie Driver June 23, 2012 4:39 AM BST
I am sure you have some deifinition of what you focus on BJT, rather than gambling on everything offered by Betfair.

Anyone critical of someone for not betting on a certain sport is showing what their mindset is and how much they have to learn
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 4:48 AM BST
I wont bother explaining about how you can analyse vidoe and understand form if you know you're doing, seeing you already know everything AD.
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 4:49 AM BST
Lions looking ok early what a contest a couple of minutes back by brown
Report BJT June 23, 2012 4:49 AM BST
Goose a big out though for them down back.
Report BJT June 23, 2012 4:51 AM BST
Although, looks in pain but may have just been a solid knock on his elbow?
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 4:53 AM BST
That should read understand form if you know what your doing,  there was a 2yo winner at ascot on the second night that stood out like dogballs and they put it up 6/1, it displayed brilliant acceleration on three occasions during the race it debuted in ( its only start)and they opened it 6/1 and was back into 5/1 but it still didnt even run close to fav and the favourite was unimpressive in winning at its previous start it was sent out 5/2 and only drifted to 11/4
Report Aussie Driver June 23, 2012 4:55 AM BST
You analyse video for trots and gallops all over the world?? What a laugh. You can't do video form for all those races we all know that, you are on a gambling forum you are talking to people who do it and know the time it consumes

Gee I do 2 state harness racing and that is all the time I have, you must have 60 hours in a day
Report BJT June 23, 2012 5:02 AM BST
Goose back out for a run?  Looked like his season was over the way he was coming off the ground.
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 5:19 AM BST
Not doing any trot form at the moment Gp fields have been disgraceful and I do selective races over this carnival I analysed the videos of every single horse in that 2yo race and looked at every single run they had and the winner stood out clearly, the overwhelmingly majority don't do proper form its all about stable prestige reputation etc they're a bizarre lot.
One of my best mates lives over there and he says the exact same thing.

I'll give you another example the queens horse carlton house was second fav behind so you Think and it simply couldnt win it wins first up was ok at bewtt it ran third ina very substandard derby last year and farhh a potential star a super impressive winner at its only three starts a very lightly raced 4yo was making a qunatum leap in class but looks an emerging star and ran accordingly and arguably should have nearly won the race.
It opened 10/1 I think and ended up starting about 7 bucks on betfair.
Carlton house had every possible favour in the run got the run at he right time and couldnt go with so you think and held second by an eyelash after farhh got stood on it head in the straight and re peatedly got stopped in its tracks and put in an incredible run to finish third and arguably would have tested so you think. You keep hearing the yards not in form and that sort of rubbish and this can't win from that stable because of that so because the trainer others horses at that particular time are cats, his good horse has suddenly lost a leg, please.
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 6:46 AM BST
Go you lions they are absolutely burying the dogs now after having controlled the game throughout
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 6:47 AM BST
Hope you ended up having a bet in this game snake
Report Kye June 23, 2012 7:04 AM BST
Dogs midfield must the most overrated in the comp.
Report VeryLTU June 23, 2012 7:10 AM BST
correct KYe... the difference between adelaides mid and bulldogs is that the bullies only goes for 2 quarters, adel go for 3. Can exclude boyd from this statement, every second game, he will give you 4.
Report got beat by a whisker-again June 23, 2012 7:14 AM BST
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 7:26 AM BST
brisbane youngs players are really starting to step up rockcliffe outstand again today, newich showing something the switch of merrett to the forward line is starting to pay real dividends he's becoming the new bradshaw for brown even though brown I dont think he kicked a goal but still influenced the game which is a very encouraging sign for the lionbs rich played well zorko looks a potntial star green shows a fair bit, that sort of performance will want to make black and brown pay on for a few seasons yet I would think if they can keep that up
Report Mrben June 23, 2012 7:34 AM BST
surprised there is not more discussion on the west coast  cwood game.Most seem to be writing off WC due to the MCG hoodoo.

Im on cwood to win the 1st quarter.
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 7:49 AM BST
started fast collingwood, eagles look like they're asleep currently, not looking good it's still very early stages but they need a steadier and soon
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 7:57 AM BST
that's better footy from the eagles hopefully they've settled now their last 5 minutes has been much better
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 7:59 AM BST
good mark brad pies lead back to 8 points after some danger signs early 7min 25 left in the 1st quarter
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 8:34 AM BST
well done nic nat and hill, all tied up with 7min 12 left in the 2nd quarter
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 8:36 AM BST
great kick big jack eagles by 6pts with 6min23 left inthe 2nd quarter and with the lead for the first time
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 8:42 AM BST
great goal beams but poor by brown twice put himself under pressure when there was no need to
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 8:44 AM BST
great unselfish play by hill
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 8:45 AM BST
shaping as another cracking game this one
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 9:18 AM BST
big kick cloak, outstanding goal the previous one but he marked that one out of his khyber pass
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 9:28 AM BST
long way back now 27 points down with 5min 27 in the third quarter
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 9:31 AM BST
grewat goal kerr back to 15 points with 3min left in the 3rd quarter
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 9:35 AM BST
umnpires have to be better than that that ball clearly bounced before maxwell claimed the mark
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 9:47 AM BST
good mark and goal by big jack game on again maybe, pies lead by 10 points with 16.12 left in the final quarter
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 9:48 AM BST
time for the sub swift to reward the clubs faith in him and stand up when it really counts
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 9:51 AM BST
naitanui mark and goal eagles trail by 3points umpiring has been deplorable for both sides
Report bigted. June 23, 2012 9:52 AM BST
go coasters..Scared
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 9:53 AM BST
josh hill eagles by 3points with 12 min left in the final quarter
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 10:00 AM BST
pies back in front by 2 points with 6min 43 left after a very dubious free kick results ina goal to beams
Report bigted. June 23, 2012 10:09 AM BST
fkkkkk multi confetti,had their chances Sad

great game
Report Lets Elope June 23, 2012 10:12 AM BST
great game, dont think they have lost anything with that performance though the eagles, apart from a couple of lapses during the game just needed to be cooler under pressure jamie elliot for collingwood was sensational under extreme pressure in the final quarter. Pies have found yet another good young player
Report got beat by a whisker-again June 23, 2012 10:25 AM BST
Just what you need BT,more confettiScaredSad
Report bigted. June 23, 2012 10:46 AM BST
Go bombers Excited
Report wombleoz June 23, 2012 11:21 AM BST
Go Dockers Excited
Report Kye June 23, 2012 1:16 PM BST
Bombers too good. Home ground couldnt stop the best side winning!! boooommmm
Report logroller June 24, 2012 5:46 AM BST
took me some time to find this thread with all the BC crap around
there r 2 games left........cant get my head around the melb/gws game. thought gws had a chance at the line early week, not so sure now, this is more than likely melbournes biggest game of the year.
still think crows r good things cant see the roos matching or beating them in 2 many positions, crows to cover
Report Lets Elope June 24, 2012 5:57 AM BST
agonised over the sydney geelong and the freo essendon gmes and just prior to the deadline on Friday switched my tips from both winning teams Agh!!!

I did manage to find the lions though in all my comps especially the important ones that base their points upon the prices they are when you tip them which is far fairer method of determining who is the best judges based upon the cumulative score of all tips each week for the entire seasonand have tipped giants at the line and the crows to beat the line today.
Report bigted. June 24, 2012 5:59 AM BST
i need north to win for a result..

go roos

Report bigted. June 24, 2012 5:59 AM BST
oops wrong smiley

Report Lets Elope June 24, 2012 6:02 AM BST
am absolutely launching on the crows.
Report bigted. June 24, 2012 6:04 AM BST
this is a final for north imo

if they win they move up close to 8 plus get some credibility..

morals imo
Report Lets Elope June 24, 2012 6:50 AM BST
absolutely no hope whatsoever Ted in my opinion, they are woeful and will be hopelessly outclassed by a genuine flag contender.
Report Lets Elope June 24, 2012 6:57 AM BST
Snake I just registered for Pinnacle and then found they only had 1.39 adelaide, early bird gets the worm I guess.
Report Mrben June 24, 2012 7:17 AM BST
I'm all over the crows. North would have to play at their absolute best to get close , and they probably would still lose.

Report West Coast Eagles June 24, 2012 7:21 AM BST
North are a much better side at the Dome, than any other ground. Im on the home side here at 3.50

No interstate team should start this short against any Victorian side , especially at a ground such as the Dome.
Report West Coast Eagles June 24, 2012 7:24 AM BST
Under 197.5 points as well for me, paying 2.20
Report CrazySnake June 24, 2012 8:01 AM BST
LE, how do you like your eggs?
Report bigted. June 24, 2012 8:25 AM BST
I smell money Excited
Report Kye June 24, 2012 8:26 AM BST
I'm on the roos with the start. Crows better side but hard to play well every week when your games relies on midfield smashing opposition.
Report bigted. June 24, 2012 8:28 AM BST
This is over punters....  Lay off crow backers Shocked
Report CrazySnake June 24, 2012 8:42 AM BST
North love the Dome don't they!
Report bigted. June 24, 2012 8:45 AM BST
just knew theyd be 'on' today..tipped this early on thread..not aftertiming..Blush

hope i havent mocked the result Scared
Report CrazySnake June 24, 2012 8:49 AM BST
I'd like to say I had a piece of the Roos but sadly I did not. I did catch some Lions yesterday though. That was my only bet for the weekend.
Crows were priced to their absolute best but the Roos were where I thought they should be Sad
I will adjust their Dome rating based upon today's outcome, however.
Report CHANTECLARE June 24, 2012 8:52 AM BST
so why wouldnt the crows like playing underthe
doona too?
Report CrazySnake June 24, 2012 8:53 AM BST
It's more about the Roos, chanty. The Roos don't like playing anywhere else lol
Report wooky June 24, 2012 9:05 AM BST
what a c nt of a week tipping wise, only got melb right. Went all in on adelaide so unless they turn it around i've got nothin.
Report bigted. June 24, 2012 9:07 AM BST
Report CrazySnake June 24, 2012 9:20 AM BST
Look out! Only 5 goals now.
Report bigted. June 24, 2012 9:22 AM BST

north have a habit of fading

Report Kye June 24, 2012 9:24 AM BST
Roos need a goal or crows will have this game. Happy if they win cos i tipped them but need it less than 19pts
Report bigted. June 24, 2012 9:39 AM BST
wowee..hang on ya bar stewards .. Scared
Report bigted. June 24, 2012 10:01 AM BST
Fat lady....

Report Lets Elope June 24, 2012 10:17 AM BST
I will be joining the unemployment queue first thing on Monday, Snake.LaughLaughLaugh (only joking)

It's only money, it's not like its life or death, they've stuck it up me twice now this year the Kangaroos and cost me plenty both times, good luck to you if you backed them I hope you had a massive result.

North have exposed themselves now lets see if they back this up over the next few weeks I somehow doubt it will happen but we shall see.

I didn't know the flu made you you lose all your skill, flair and poise under pressure though.

Wish I had had known beforehand they had the flu I may have been a tad more cautious.

I will say it anyway because unlike some on here I have no trouble admitting it I WAS WRONG, VERY, VERY, WRONG

If you can't laugh about these things you shouldn't be in the game.
Report logroller June 24, 2012 10:28 AM BST
best attitude mate.........u gotta laugh
Report Lets Elope June 24, 2012 10:38 AM BST
first chance I get I will be laying north for a massive result to get my money back. in the right game of course, bloody kangaroos, they shoot roos don't theyLaugh
Report West Coast Eagles June 24, 2012 10:47 AM BST
Roos were solid under the roof today.

Roos best footy has been at the Dome this season (close high scoring game against Ess, Big win over Geelong (paying around 5.00), and another upset over Adelaide (@ 3.50))

Saints V Roos should be a classic next week
Report VeryLTU June 24, 2012 11:02 AM BST
yes LE, the vagaries of the punt !!! Being brought unstuck by bird flu or something. Haemagglutinin 1 Neuraminidase 1...H1N1 surface antigens on the surface of the bird flu virus........ the difference between 1.10 and 1.40 being value. Memo: Adelaide Football Club...... IMMUNISE everyone or lose 4 points Laugh
Report Lets Elope June 24, 2012 11:11 AM BST
I know its vitally important for trainers to get blood counts done on horses prior to each race maybe we should get the same thing done on AFL players. Argh!!!!Laugh
Report VeryLTU June 24, 2012 11:15 AM BST
For sure, perhaps a full blood tgest for Kurt Tippet. He looked like he had mixo when he was benched..... full blood transfusion in the alfred tonight before a slow ambulance back to adelaide.
Report CrazySnake June 24, 2012 11:21 AM BST
Look, LE. I don't wish these things upon anyone. I did try to gently warn you about this one though. Had one of those feelings it wasn't going to be the cakewalk many thought it was.

Anyway, it's not like I made a killing on it either. I sat out, had a little go ATS and i do mean little.

I'll post prices for next week as soon as I can work things out.
Report bigted. June 24, 2012 11:23 AM BST
Or coulda listened to me Excited
Report Lets Elope June 24, 2012 1:11 PM BST
Snake you live and learn but I still if the real crows turn up they win comfortably but norh were outstanding today and have exposed their level of required effort for the rest of the season but can't see them reproducing that too often other than in games when I bet heavily against themLaugh
Maybe James can sling me twice as much as my bet against them if I continue to lay them for him, if that was the case I'd be more than happy to oblige and North would get a flag out of it, a win win for all concernedLaugh
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