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calculating exacta and trifecta divvies
calculating exacta and trifecta divvies
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Replies: 59
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(pI * pJ)/(1-pI)
Google victor_lo.pdf for a full description of the models, should be the first site |
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No, its easy to do in any programming language ( if you know how to code)
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I do not mean to come off rude,I can hardly remember reading all this.
But I thought the constant 0.85 , 0.65 had to be worked out with MLE , R, XLSTAT or some sort? |
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Then may I ask why you said its hardly a corrected sum when Harville is a straight 1+1=2 formula and what I proposed earlier is the same as Harville when average joe can work out Harville but not this stuff?
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If you are unable to code it yourself then perhaps, but those stat programs can't test what the actual profit would be as far as I'm aware.
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It would be difficult for the ordinary horse player to calculate and compute this formula
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This is true.
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You would be better off doing what was suggested earlier,exotic all your overs and even dogs near your price as place/win chances
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I believe your expertise and understanding on this subject may beyond the understanding of this thread
Anyway you clearly know what you're doing,have a good day. |
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Thank you, same to you Nic
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castiron, do you think that holds for quin/exactas or would those pools be open to timing as well? due to people placing bets on overs according to pre race odds... so you could get above 5% without eroding by deliberately putting small bets on earlier to trigger other software programs to take up the overs on other runners and create a sort of equilibrium?
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good luck to you all. No idea what any of the stuff on this thread means. But if it works nobody can argue with success
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Thanks whoopi, yours is the only post I understood.
 .I would have thought the takeout rates would make it challenging to maintain long term "overs"on the exotics. |
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If you look at the Tab site and click results, a few minutes after the race is finished all the dividends come up, including exactas and trifectas. No need for complex formulas.
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my head hurts
 obviously there will be a favourite bias and a percentage of markets will be out because of a big betting owner etc but wouldn't the easiest way be to look at a sample of races and see if there is a pattern??? i.e. do a spreadsheet that multiplies out your prices by a "factor" to give the dividend that you expect and then compare that to the actual dividend - then vary the "factor" until you get as close as possible on a majority of races bit of work - but i guess if you can find the right factor it would be worthwhile and it would be specific to your ratings rather than a theoretical formula actually - the other way would be to look at say 100 races (to start with) you know the results for already - put in your prices and the dividend and work out what "factor" you need to multiply them by to get there. Then look at the results and see if there are patterns in the "factor" my 1.5 cents worth - probably doesn't make sense but thought I'd throw it out there  |
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Look you're better off making your own selections via your prices. Essentially put prices higher then your own as 1st,2,3 and prices that are $1 - $1.5 off your price as 2,3 for the tris. A program will only spit out all the combinations and pay offs(Which would be inaccurate due to late money and rebates). But I recommend what DT said, put your overs in but more important the Quinella as it is the easiest exotic to beat.
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wrap your head around this
http://bet4place.com/user/image/efficiencyofthemarketforracetrackbetting.pdf |
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Unclee
Yes,no difference with quinellas and exactas. I have never tried, what you are suggesting, but it does seem plausible. |
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this one is a bit easier
http://www.sharpsportsbetting.com/forums/free/racing/index.cgi/noframes/read/89 |
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Market efficiency is just getting the win percent of odds to see if there's an edge.For instance $10 might win 11%,so you would want to back every $10 or Caulfield 1200 favorites under $2 might win 33% of the time and so on.
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