Lightning Stakes

She only ran up 600m on Sat Kye...not really coming back that much imo.

True Lazza, but 7 furlongs is 7 furlongs even if only run in 1.25 & a weeks break is a weeks break.

& HL is not the slowest horse going around

backing up from track gallop only. if she gets beat that sure won't be the reason

Isn't it 1000m?

think it's a bit harsh to characterize it as arrogance. I think that luckily we have connections that appreciate what the horse means to the general public and are trying to give them what they want. Only wish Fred Kersley had done the same with Northerly in the Melbourne Cup.

Yes it is, sorry, misread your op, Kye

Kye,in the normal world,I would agree with you %120,but this is not the normal world/horse,were talking about...The fact that I have no  idea what P.Moody has been doing with BC,makes it impossible to actually comment on whether the horse will be sharp or not sharp.and I think thats the only drawback in peoples minds.Will the 1400 have taken the edge off it???...I would think P Moody knows exactly what hes doing,and the horse will just win no matter what happens.But only cause its easily the best horse ive ever seen,and the straight track is suited to horses that are not purely sprinters.All those races it has  been winning by 3 and 4 lengths,could easily have been 13 and 14 lengths...Machine..In saying all that,if you can lay at 1.03 or there abouts its a bet to nothing..Cant lose much,can only win,so if your  happy to slaughter a few bucks on the off chance it may break a leg,then good luck...

whoopi i only think it is arrogance b/c it seems silly to back up & get her beaten. They either thought HL would avoid her or that she can come back in trip & still be too good. i reckon they are wrong either way

flaw in your theory kye is that you are presuming it'll be a race. That's a risky assumption where BC's concerned.

whisker, she can't be sharp. she has just been trained up for a 1400m run & backing up a week later. She can't be at her best for 1000m.

She is a freak & if she wasn't up against much then she would be still too good. But she is up against a v good sprinter who is fresh & will go v fast over 5 furlongs. I think when HL lets down she will be a bit flat & he will steal length & hold her off.

agree with your logic, Kye, with any other horse it seems a definite head-scratcher of a choice.

Be difficult not to be a touch arrogant with a freak though.

The TAB has Hay List at 9.00 atm

Cant see that Scenario Kye...BC is just in another league...and who's too say Hay List will be at his top...??ps--The straight suits horses that can run a strong 1400...

Of course i'm assuming he is at his v best.

like i posted last week in another thread about Black Caviar running 1400m.

the 1400 at caulfield is like a 1200m race dowwn the straight at flemington, trainers know this.


watch her lighnting, newmarket, patnick races down the straight, all horses are off the bit hard ridden 600 from home.

her cruising speed is phenominal as is her burst

Watch her Sydney & Brissy wins. HL is only horse that cruises just as fast & has got her off the bit.

Reckon she was off the bit cause of the reverse way of galloping--Still destroyed him

kye...nolan said the plan racing in sydney and brisbane was to let her get on her melbourne leg once straighten up, once balance let her do her thing, they gave ground to hay list and the rest for a reason.

No chance in hell of the 1400m having taken the edge off it, especially running down the straight, that's total nonsense.

I just hope Haylist runs up to what we know Haylist is capable of given what he has endured and recovered from over the past year and she might at least get pushed and  who know but it wont be dropping back from the 1400m to the 1000m that beats her if she somehow got beaten.

It will be an enormous training effort given everything Haylist has been through if he even gets close to her considering how much Black Caviar has improved since he last met here but they're obviously happy with their horse otherwise they wouldn't be running.

has to be vulnerable imo

Went along last week to watch BC race and she is something to behold in the flesh also. Decided to go out the back to observe her being hosed down and having the post race walk and she was an exhausted horse. Think as Moody himself says, she looks to be doing it easy but it does take a bit out of her.

Funny move dropping back to the 1000m.....though she is the greatest sprinter i have ever witnessed.

If she was so exhausted I somehow doubt they would be backing her up, Moody isn't dumb and may know the mare just a tad better than you do.

Everyone is forgetting the manner in which she wins her races, especially down the straight, is because of her ridiculously high cruising speed as she lengthens off an already fast tempo effortlessly in a manner which virtually no horse can match.

must be a "few" that haven't forgotten. She is $1.10 you know

I'll be laying again

anyone done a speed map???  I can't see the champ settling as close as she normally would

I disagree, I don't do any time work, but surely over 5f you can only make up "so much" ground against flyers.

Very dangerous letting them "get away"

What assumption have you based that upon wombleoz, she's drawn perfectly to amble along just off the speed and then go bang when Nolen asks her to go.
At least this week layers will have some logical basis for laying her last week rather than just being plain stubborn you were effectively hoping for her to breakdown because that was the only way she was going to be beaten, this wees she faces some quality opposition but I still don't think it will make any difference whatsoever

like has been said, they aren't machines - last week they went as slow as a Liberal voters wages this week they'll go as fast as mine

she'll be at least 3 lengths further back than normal imo

she'll still win but not as easily as normal

We'll have to see, I suppose. I'd disagree with you now, Womble, but..........

I don't have the energy to debate with you for 5000 posts

All will be revealed on Saturday TINS - IF she runs

4999

Exausted??--In what way??

lol Spooon and Kye that is a surprising post - thought you would never be off her after the tone of your recent posts

still you haven't been wrong yet

Kye - you are generally a good judge, but way off the mark here.

To say that HL has "challenged" Black Caviar is ridiculous. She beat her by 2L eased up in the BTC Sprint, 3L in the TJ Smith, 3.3L in last years Lightning, and smashed him in the Patinack, although we know he wasn't right that day.

She has improved, he has had injury concerns. She has never been tested, he has gone to the well each time they have met.

In each, and every run BC has ever had (Danehill excluded) and to a lesser extent MAYBE the TJ Smith (where she was left a tiny bit flat footed, although was first time Sydney way) she has had LENGTHS in hand, she has along way to go before she finds the bottom of the well, and I doubt she ever will.

In no way could she be considered a lay, at any price, you might as well set fire to the money, because you'll get a better sight. Or better yet, give it to a charity, at least that way you will have a warm fuzzy feeling and sense of community.

If she were to get anywhere near $1.25 I would consider her ENORMOUS value, she is still value at the current quote of $1.10.

fair call Danehill. I ridiculed those that laid her last week. so i accept the same if i am way off mark this week.

I don't really accept the excuses for BC in Sydney & Brissy in the same way that others have not accepted the excuses for HL in the Flemington runs.

She is much better that HL there is no doubt but you will go broke backing horses dropping back from 1400m to 1000m in a week. She is good enough & last weeks run was easy but she is racing the 2nd best sprinter going around. She is a massive lay for me at 1.10.

Have fun paying out 10 cents in every dollar

lol Joel

really like FOXWEDGE to fill a hole here, dont think he will miss

Personally reckon you'd be better chance of collecting laying HL a place at 1.22.

Personally, I'd do neither and sit back, relax and watch the best horse we have ever seen go about her business

Keep pushing the price out please Kye.

7 day back up after a track gallop. THis is the best horse most have ever seen.
Avg horses may stuggle 1400m back to 1000m, but have no fear here.
no reason not to keep lumping on as a backer

Agree with Dane, a better lay is hay list the place.

should be a terrific race for all who enjoy seeing BC race ...

one to savour for the horse itself ... should she still be gracing us with her presence after the 9am scratchings are lodged

she has been achieving 'consecutive sectionals' well beyond what we are used to witnessing ...

allowed by a combination of inherent speed plus the extra length of her stride

all nolan would be instructed to do imo  ... is click her up one extra 200m sectional earlier than usual

judged right this should be a ripper race to behold over the final stages ...

One last point

They all get beaten & if she doesnt lose this weekend then i can't see her getting beaten until the 2013 Cox Plate

i have to thank Thebas for this great article from last week before the C F Orr stakes.


Records coupled with modern technology have enabled the expert judges and analysts to come up with the same finding - the unbeaten mare is a super freak. By Chris Roots.
SHE IS the closest thing to Phar Lap that racing has had in a century but Black Caviar still has a long way to go to rewrite the record books.
However, ask those who know and the overwhelming response is it is only a matter of time until she does. ''She is the best horse I have ever seen,'' says rails bookie and form analyst Robbie Waterhouse. ''She is the best in the world, I have no doubt about it.''
Phar Lap was the benchmark of his time and beyond. He is built into the Australian sporting consciousness. He effectively won 27 times at the top level, Cox Plates, a Melbourne Cup, derbies, you name it, he ran in it and won. He went overseas long before it became the trend, and won, too.
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Phar Lap, like Don Bradman was to cricket in the same period, will always lead the pantheon of turf stars, which includes names such as Carbine, Tulloch, Kingston Town and Makybe Diva.
Comparing different eras in any sport is complicated and inexact, as achievements are a product of competition. ''Our horses are better now because they are bred to be better and the training techniques are better,'' Waterhouse says.
Black Caviar, more than any horse since Phar Lap, has became public property. Her aura comes from her invincibility - 17 starts, 17 wins.
She is Australia's top sporting star of the present day. But can she match Phar Lap's record?
Probably not because she might not even have 29 starts, and she definitely won't run in that many group 1s.
Since 1978-79, racing has identified greatness using the group system. It rates the best races on four levels, group 1 being the best. Black Caviar has won seven times at group 1 level, which is a long way from the Australian leader, Kingston Town, which chalked up 14 wins in the 1980s.
It is a record that could fall to the freakish daughter of Bel Esprit. Another in her sights would be stakes wins, which takes in all four levels of the group system (groups 1-3 and listed). It is held by Sunline at 28 wins, Black Caviar sits on 16 and could move into the 20s by year's end if her winning streak continues.
The likelihood of that is extremely high, says Australia's leading time analyst Vince Accardi. ''Her average [time rating] is 12 lengths faster than standard,'' Accardi says. ''I have never seen anything like it. There was a point where I went back and checked my figures because I thought they had to be wrong.
''I have a 15-year database and there is nothing on it that compares to her. The best example of how good she is, is Takeover Target, who was a great sprinter. His best rating was 11.7 lengths better than standard. She does that every time she races.''
Accardi, who runs the website Daily Sectionals, measures 200-metre sections in metres per second. It gives him a great tool to measure horse against horse and predict performance. He clocked Black Caviar 19.47mps during her Newmarket win last year.
''I don't think it is possible for a horse to go faster than 19.5mps, if you can find one I would like to see it,'' he said. ''The thing that is extraordinary about her is her ability to hold high speed.
''Horses can run in the high 18s but they very quickly fatigue and drop off because they are basically overexerting themselves.
''[The Newmarket last year] was the day we saw how good she might be because it was 17.3 lengths better than standard, which is the highest performance I have on record.
''She went 19.42, 19.47, 18.78 for three sections in a row, I have never seen that before. But she does it regularly.''
Black Caviar has never been beyond 1200m but this afternoon steps up to 1400m in the Orr Stakes. She is expected to win. Accardi's numbers say it will be a formality. But he has gone further and measured her against the 20 best 1400m races in the past decade in Australia.
''No horse has been able to run her numbers,'' he said. ''I believe it wouldn't be a worry for her to keep winning at 1400m and even a mile, given her pattern.
''My model has her [potentially] about seven lengths better than the average of those 20 races, which is amazing.''
Black Caviar possesses a potent mix of speed and endurance that staggers the experts.
Waterhouse has a different system, he favours stride length. He has estimated Black Caviar's stride to be beyond eight metres.
''Horses can have a giant stride and still be slow,'' Waterhouse says. ''But for a big horse, she is light on her feet. She seems to do it effortlessly and be in contact with the ground for less time than other horses.
''I measured her strides in the Newmarket win and she took 12, 12, 13, 13 in the last 400m [in 100m sections]. The horses chasing her, Crystal Lily and Beaded, took 13.5, 13.5, 14, 15. That's a massive difference, she took six less strides to cover the same distance. She is just not fatiguing like her rivals.
''In the T.J. Smith, she went 12, 13, 12, 13 and Hay List, which is a great sprinter, was 13, 14, 15, 15.''
Black Caviar has been able to concentrate on sprints, not racing beyond 1200m, because of increased prizemoney. In the past, great sprinters have had to stretch out to 1600m (a mile then) to earn the big bucks.
Black Caviar has been able to earn more than $4.5 million in her 17 starts. It is impressive but still $10 million shy of the record amount three-time Melbourne Cup heroine Makybe Diva banked in her career.
Makybe Diva won 15 races but the race that stops the nation swelled her stakes by $8.4 million, making the prizemoney record another that appears out of reach for Black Caviar.
But is she the best in the world? Timeform, one of the oracles of the ratings game, puts unbeaten English sensation Frankel in front of Black Caviar at the end of last year. The measure Timeform use is pounds and it rates Frankel at 143 and Black Caviar at 135+, which indicates she is expected to improve.
''It is there [the plus] for when she goes to 1400 metres and she could go up a couple of points,'' says Timeform's Australian agent, Gary Crispe.
Black Caviar will meet eight rivals when she chases win No. 18, this time over 1400m at Caulfield this afternoon.
Most in the crowd of about 30,000, who won't have to pay to get in after the Melbourne Racing Club decided to throw the gates open, will be there to see one horse, not nine races.
She will attract a nationwide television audience on the racing channels and on free-to-air through Channel Nine, and it will be transmitted globally.
So what is in store from Black Caviar for the remainder of the year, when she will take on the world like Phar Lap did, starting in either Dubai or Royal Ascot?
''I can only go the numbers from her first-up run [in the Australia Stakes] where she was 12.8 lengths better than standard,'' Accardi says.
''I would say that makes two or three lengths better than last time she was in work.''
That is scary, but her trainer Peter Moody has always said she was getting better.

whats vinces BF name?

lol LIH .. on his webshow he said sometimes he has 1 bet a week ... and has joined forces with an odds assessor ... no easy money sadly ... provides sectional info to stewards as well (mentions one of the rodder enquiries)

his webshow is here ... i started watcching at the 18 min mark first & went to 45 mins ... you'll know there if you want to watch on

http://www.championpicks.com.au/blog/horse-racing-tips/form-analyst-sectiona...

How wet will the track be?  Hay List is 9 out of 10 on good tracks and 14 out of 20 overall - doubt it will be good after the rain last night

Foxwedge, Lone Rock and Temple of Boom all place chances

Lay the champ if she is a crazy price as well - it's not going to be the usual walk in the park tomorrow, IF she runs. She will settle a little further back than normal and have to work harder to win - which she probably will but a fair price would be $1.25 imo

she's won a trial in heavy going.

http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/Racing/horse.aspx?horse_code=790716

Track will be fine.