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I can't wait to lay BC. Has been pushed to pick up HL over 1200m. Backing up from 7 furlongs she has to be a bit flat.
I wouldnt be running her & would go straight into Futurity but i think connections may have got a bit arrogant. Horses are not machines & this is the perfect time for her to be beaten. I might be wrong & i'm sure she will go close but if she is less than 1.25 then definitely a lay for me
I wouldnt be running her & would go straight into Futurity but i think connections may have got a bit arrogant. Horses are not machines & this is the perfect time for her to be beaten. I might be wrong & i'm sure she will go close but if she is less than 1.25 then definitely a lay for me
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She only ran up 600m on Sat Kye...not really coming back that much imo.
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True Lazza, but 7 furlongs is 7 furlongs even if only run in 1.25 & a weeks break is a weeks break.
& HL is not the slowest horse going around |
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backing up from track gallop only. if she gets beat that sure won't be the reason
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Isn't it 1000m?
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think it's a bit harsh to characterize it as arrogance. I think that luckily we have connections that appreciate what the horse means to the general public and are trying to give them what they want. Only wish Fred Kersley had done the same with Northerly in the Melbourne Cup.
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Yes it is, sorry, misread your op, Kye
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Kye,in the normal world,I would agree with you %120,but this is not the normal world/horse,were talking about...The fact that I have no idea what P.Moody has been doing with BC,makes it impossible to actually comment on whether the horse will be sharp or not sharp.and I think thats the only drawback in peoples minds.Will the 1400 have taken the edge off it???...I would think P Moody knows exactly what hes doing,and the horse will just win no matter what happens.But only cause its easily the best horse ive ever seen,and the straight track is suited to horses that are not purely sprinters.All those races it has been winning by 3 and 4 lengths,could easily have been 13 and 14 lengths...Machine..In saying all that,if you can lay at 1.03 or there abouts its a bet to nothing..Cant lose much,can only win,so if your happy to slaughter a few bucks on the off chance it may break a leg,then good luck...
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whoopi i only think it is arrogance b/c it seems silly to back up & get her beaten. They either thought HL would avoid her or that she can come back in trip & still be too good. i reckon they are wrong either way
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flaw in your theory kye is that you are presuming it'll be a race. That's a risky assumption where BC's concerned.
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whisker, she can't be sharp. she has just been trained up for a 1400m run & backing up a week later. She can't be at her best for 1000m.
She is a freak & if she wasn't up against much then she would be still too good. But she is up against a v good sprinter who is fresh & will go v fast over 5 furlongs. I think when HL lets down she will be a bit flat & he will steal length & hold her off. |
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agree with your logic, Kye, with any other horse it seems a definite head-scratcher of a choice.
Be difficult not to be a touch arrogant with a freak though.  |
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The TAB has Hay List at 9.00 atm
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Cant see that Scenario Kye...BC is just in another league...and who's too say Hay List will be at his top...??ps--The straight suits horses that can run a strong 1400...
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Of course i'm assuming he is at his v best.
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like i posted last week in another thread about Black Caviar running 1400m.
the 1400 at caulfield is like a 1200m race dowwn the straight at flemington, trainers know this. watch her lighnting, newmarket, patnick races down the straight, all horses are off the bit hard ridden 600 from home. her cruising speed is phenominal as is her burst |
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Watch her Sydney & Brissy wins. HL is only horse that cruises just as fast & has got her off the bit.
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Reckon she was off the bit cause of the reverse way of galloping--Still destroyed him
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kye...nolan said the plan racing in sydney and brisbane was to let her get on her melbourne leg once straighten up, once balance let her do her thing, they gave ground to hay list and the rest for a reason.
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No chance in hell of the 1400m having taken the edge off it, especially running down the straight, that's total nonsense.
I just hope Haylist runs up to what we know Haylist is capable of given what he has endured and recovered from over the past year and she might at least get pushed and who know but it wont be dropping back from the 1400m to the 1000m that beats her if she somehow got beaten. It will be an enormous training effort given everything Haylist has been through if he even gets close to her considering how much Black Caviar has improved since he last met here but they're obviously happy with their horse otherwise they wouldn't be running. |
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has to be vulnerable imo
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Went along last week to watch BC race and she is something to behold in the flesh also. Decided to go out the back to observe her being hosed down and having the post race walk and she was an exhausted horse. Think as Moody himself says, she looks to be doing it easy but it does take a bit out of her.
Funny move dropping back to the 1000m.....though she is the greatest sprinter i have ever witnessed. |
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If she was so exhausted I somehow doubt they would be backing her up, Moody isn't dumb and may know the mare just a tad better than you do.
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Everyone is forgetting the manner in which she wins her races, especially down the straight, is because of her ridiculously high cruising speed as she lengthens off an already fast tempo effortlessly in a manner which virtually no horse can match.
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must be a "few" that haven't forgotten. She is $1.10 you know
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I'll be laying again
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anyone done a speed map??? I can't see the champ settling as close as she normally would
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I disagree, I don't do any time work, but surely over 5f you can only make up "so much" ground against flyers.
Very dangerous letting them "get away" |
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What assumption have you based that upon wombleoz, she's drawn perfectly to amble along just off the speed and then go bang when Nolen asks her to go.
At least this week layers will have some logical basis for laying her last week rather than just being plain stubborn you were effectively hoping for her to breakdown because that was the only way she was going to be beaten, this wees she faces some quality opposition but I still don't think it will make any difference whatsoever |
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like has been said, they aren't machines - last week they went as slow as a Liberal voters wages this week they'll go as fast as mine
she'll be at least 3 lengths further back than normal imo she'll still win but not as easily as normal |
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We'll have to see, I suppose. I'd disagree with you now, Womble, but..........
I don't have the energy to debate with you for 5000 posts  |
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All will be revealed on Saturday TINS - IF she runs
4999  |
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Exausted??--In what way??
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lol Spooon and Kye that is a surprising post - thought you would never be off her after the tone of your recent posts
still you haven't been wrong yet |
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Kye - you are generally a good judge, but way off the mark here.
To say that HL has "challenged" Black Caviar is ridiculous. She beat her by 2L eased up in the BTC Sprint, 3L in the TJ Smith, 3.3L in last years Lightning, and smashed him in the Patinack, although we know he wasn't right that day. She has improved, he has had injury concerns. She has never been tested, he has gone to the well each time they have met. In each, and every run BC has ever had (Danehill excluded) and to a lesser extent MAYBE the TJ Smith (where she was left a tiny bit flat footed, although was first time Sydney way) she has had LENGTHS in hand, she has along way to go before she finds the bottom of the well, and I doubt she ever will. In no way could she be considered a lay, at any price, you might as well set fire to the money, because you'll get a better sight. Or better yet, give it to a charity, at least that way you will have a warm fuzzy feeling and sense of community. If she were to get anywhere near $1.25 I would consider her ENORMOUS value, she is still value at the current quote of $1.10. |
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fair call Danehill. I ridiculed those that laid her last week. so i accept the same if i am way off mark this week.
I don't really accept the excuses for BC in Sydney & Brissy in the same way that others have not accepted the excuses for HL in the Flemington runs. She is much better that HL there is no doubt but you will go broke backing horses dropping back from 1400m to 1000m in a week. She is good enough & last weeks run was easy but she is racing the 2nd best sprinter going around. She is a massive lay for me at 1.10. |
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Have fun paying out 10 cents in every dollar
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lol Joel
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really like FOXWEDGE to fill a hole here, dont think he will miss
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Personally reckon you'd be better chance of collecting laying HL a place at 1.22.
Personally, I'd do neither and sit back, relax and watch the best horse we have ever seen go about her business |