should be a terrific race for all who enjoy seeing BC race ...

one to savour for the horse itself ... should she still be gracing us with her presence after the 9am scratchings are lodged

she has been achieving 'consecutive sectionals' well beyond what we are used to witnessing ...

allowed by a combination of inherent speed plus the extra length of her stride

all nolan would be instructed to do imo  ... is click her up one extra 200m sectional earlier than usual

judged right this should be a ripper race to behold over the final stages ...

i have to thank Thebas for this great article from last week before the C F Orr stakes.


Records coupled with modern technology have enabled the expert judges and analysts to come up with the same finding - the unbeaten mare is a super freak. By Chris Roots.
SHE IS the closest thing to Phar Lap that racing has had in a century but Black Caviar still has a long way to go to rewrite the record books.
However, ask those who know and the overwhelming response is it is only a matter of time until she does. ''She is the best horse I have ever seen,'' says rails bookie and form analyst Robbie Waterhouse. ''She is the best in the world, I have no doubt about it.''
Phar Lap was the benchmark of his time and beyond. He is built into the Australian sporting consciousness. He effectively won 27 times at the top level, Cox Plates, a Melbourne Cup, derbies, you name it, he ran in it and won. He went overseas long before it became the trend, and won, too.
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Phar Lap, like Don Bradman was to cricket in the same period, will always lead the pantheon of turf stars, which includes names such as Carbine, Tulloch, Kingston Town and Makybe Diva.
Comparing different eras in any sport is complicated and inexact, as achievements are a product of competition. ''Our horses are better now because they are bred to be better and the training techniques are better,'' Waterhouse says.
Black Caviar, more than any horse since Phar Lap, has became public property. Her aura comes from her invincibility - 17 starts, 17 wins.
She is Australia's top sporting star of the present day. But can she match Phar Lap's record?
Probably not because she might not even have 29 starts, and she definitely won't run in that many group 1s.
Since 1978-79, racing has identified greatness using the group system. It rates the best races on four levels, group 1 being the best. Black Caviar has won seven times at group 1 level, which is a long way from the Australian leader, Kingston Town, which chalked up 14 wins in the 1980s.
It is a record that could fall to the freakish daughter of Bel Esprit. Another in her sights would be stakes wins, which takes in all four levels of the group system (groups 1-3 and listed). It is held by Sunline at 28 wins, Black Caviar sits on 16 and could move into the 20s by year's end if her winning streak continues.
The likelihood of that is extremely high, says Australia's leading time analyst Vince Accardi. ''Her average [time rating] is 12 lengths faster than standard,'' Accardi says. ''I have never seen anything like it. There was a point where I went back and checked my figures because I thought they had to be wrong.
''I have a 15-year database and there is nothing on it that compares to her. The best example of how good she is, is Takeover Target, who was a great sprinter. His best rating was 11.7 lengths better than standard. She does that every time she races.''
Accardi, who runs the website Daily Sectionals, measures 200-metre sections in metres per second. It gives him a great tool to measure horse against horse and predict performance. He clocked Black Caviar 19.47mps during her Newmarket win last year.
''I don't think it is possible for a horse to go faster than 19.5mps, if you can find one I would like to see it,'' he said. ''The thing that is extraordinary about her is her ability to hold high speed.
''Horses can run in the high 18s but they very quickly fatigue and drop off because they are basically overexerting themselves.
''[The Newmarket last year] was the day we saw how good she might be because it was 17.3 lengths better than standard, which is the highest performance I have on record.
''She went 19.42, 19.47, 18.78 for three sections in a row, I have never seen that before. But she does it regularly.''
Black Caviar has never been beyond 1200m but this afternoon steps up to 1400m in the Orr Stakes. She is expected to win. Accardi's numbers say it will be a formality. But he has gone further and measured her against the 20 best 1400m races in the past decade in Australia.
''No horse has been able to run her numbers,'' he said. ''I believe it wouldn't be a worry for her to keep winning at 1400m and even a mile, given her pattern.
''My model has her [potentially] about seven lengths better than the average of those 20 races, which is amazing.''
Black Caviar possesses a potent mix of speed and endurance that staggers the experts.
Waterhouse has a different system, he favours stride length. He has estimated Black Caviar's stride to be beyond eight metres.
''Horses can have a giant stride and still be slow,'' Waterhouse says. ''But for a big horse, she is light on her feet. She seems to do it effortlessly and be in contact with the ground for less time than other horses.
''I measured her strides in the Newmarket win and she took 12, 12, 13, 13 in the last 400m [in 100m sections]. The horses chasing her, Crystal Lily and Beaded, took 13.5, 13.5, 14, 15. That's a massive difference, she took six less strides to cover the same distance. She is just not fatiguing like her rivals.
''In the T.J. Smith, she went 12, 13, 12, 13 and Hay List, which is a great sprinter, was 13, 14, 15, 15.''
Black Caviar has been able to concentrate on sprints, not racing beyond 1200m, because of increased prizemoney. In the past, great sprinters have had to stretch out to 1600m (a mile then) to earn the big bucks.
Black Caviar has been able to earn more than $4.5 million in her 17 starts. It is impressive but still $10 million shy of the record amount three-time Melbourne Cup heroine Makybe Diva banked in her career.
Makybe Diva won 15 races but the race that stops the nation swelled her stakes by $8.4 million, making the prizemoney record another that appears out of reach for Black Caviar.
But is she the best in the world? Timeform, one of the oracles of the ratings game, puts unbeaten English sensation Frankel in front of Black Caviar at the end of last year. The measure Timeform use is pounds and it rates Frankel at 143 and Black Caviar at 135+, which indicates she is expected to improve.
''It is there [the plus] for when she goes to 1400 metres and she could go up a couple of points,'' says Timeform's Australian agent, Gary Crispe.
Black Caviar will meet eight rivals when she chases win No. 18, this time over 1400m at Caulfield this afternoon.
Most in the crowd of about 30,000, who won't have to pay to get in after the Melbourne Racing Club decided to throw the gates open, will be there to see one horse, not nine races.
She will attract a nationwide television audience on the racing channels and on free-to-air through Channel Nine, and it will be transmitted globally.
So what is in store from Black Caviar for the remainder of the year, when she will take on the world like Phar Lap did, starting in either Dubai or Royal Ascot?
''I can only go the numbers from her first-up run [in the Australia Stakes] where she was 12.8 lengths better than standard,'' Accardi says.
''I would say that makes two or three lengths better than last time she was in work.''
That is scary, but her trainer Peter Moody has always said she was getting better.

lol LIH .. on his webshow he said sometimes he has 1 bet a week ... and has joined forces with an odds assessor ... no easy money sadly ... provides sectional info to stewards as well (mentions one of the rodder enquiries)

his webshow is here ... i started watcching at the 18 min mark first & went to 45 mins ... you'll know there if you want to watch on

http://www.championpicks.com.au/blog/horse-racing-tips/form-analyst-sectional-times/

she's won a trial in heavy going.

http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/Racing/horse.aspx?horse_code=790716