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Happy Valley
10 Nov 11 08:32
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Date Joined: 20 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 3,322 | Blogger: Happy Valley's blog
I was told at dinner the other night that betfair are likely to lose their upcoming appeal and their response is almost certain to be a withdrawal from australian racing.

Very interested in some informed views. Thanks.

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Replies: 236
By:
elsu.
When: 10 Nov 11 08:36
guessing....YES
so lets hope they dont lose and betfair is here to stay
By:
Happy Valley
When: 10 Nov 11 08:40
sure as a punter they are great, as is the concept of a betting exchange, as it clearly reduces the cost of punting by reducing the takeout

but are they good for racing? there is a big funding issue here because of their smaller margins they can't return so much to racing from the betting turnover and this is clearly very bad - and in places like the uk this is perilous

my personal feeling is that they do need to return more to racing
By:
ziggytpunter43
When: 10 Nov 11 08:59
betfair goes,i retire,costs the government more,lol
By:
Happy Valley
When: 10 Nov 11 09:16
i believe this is a very likely scenario - ie lost court case and take bat and ball and go home
By:
Kye
When: 10 Nov 11 09:17
i think they quit NSW but i don't see why they would quit Aust. That would just be money down the drain.

It would only be if other states introduced similar charges would they leave Aust altogether. Hopefully other states would see how much NSW lose from their stance & don't follow
By:
Back High Lay Low
When: 10 Nov 11 09:34
I suspect that if NSW wins than the other major states will follow suit in the following 12-18 months.
What will be interesting is what happens during that time in-between, we can only hope that the whole NSW market suffers without Betfair.

If Betfair Aus. was to cease their current operation hopefully they'll still maintain a license in one of the states or territories so that punters are protected from any future federal laws prohibiting Australian citizens from holding accounts with overseas firms.
By:
wombleoz
When: 10 Nov 11 09:44
quit nsw and stick with rest - 1.5% of nothing is nothing
By:
Hal
When: 10 Nov 11 09:56
I thought Victoria was already trying to revisit their agreement with Betfair in light of the pending High Court judgement and pressure from the Victorian breeding lobby.

Also a loss for Betfair and a legal precedent that turnover is a valid basis for a product fee will most likely attract attention from sporting bodies who currently have agrrements in place to renegotiate those agreements when they lapse.

The echange model would not survive under a turnover based fee, imo.
By:
Happy Valley
When: 10 Nov 11 10:18
Hal i agree but have two further thoughts

1. an underground market will spring up and betting turnover will be diverted via somewhere akin to gibraltor

2. seems there should be some middle way, bookies "charge" the punters too much and betting exchanges too little, surely there should be room for negotiating somewhere in between the two takeout levels
By:
Lets Elope
When: 10 Nov 11 10:43
no chance in hell of them quitting australia.
By:
Happy Valley
When: 10 Nov 11 11:05
because?

and how will they pay, if they lose the case which seems very likely, given the margins at which they operate?
By:
Deadly Earnest
When: 10 Nov 11 22:46
The Australian Government should boot Betfarce out and nationalise the exchange industry. 

That way punters should get a good solid exchange that is a true exchange, all the revenue stays in Australia, AND it would bring revenue to the country from overseas, rather than the exchange sucking cash out of the country.

Sharp practices on the part of the operators and punters could be eradicated, and crucially, the Government would be able to exercise some level of control over the operation of the exchange.  Steps could be taken to promote fairness to all.
By:
Thebas
When: 10 Nov 11 23:09
the new contract for vic tab has included ... by law ... the facility to run a betting 'exchange' ... alongside their normal suburban outlets as well as internet betting

that they have chosen NOT to ... makes it interesting in relation to the upcoming high court decision

if the decision goes in favour of bf ... then there may well be competition of an exchange model

if the decision goes against bf ... then the scab could STILL by law (and business practice) open and run an exchange themselves ... to 'soak up' the lost revenue of the exchange model (that lost revenue being from 'traders' and bot activity - not commonplace gamblers/gambling activity)
By:
earlycrow
When: 10 Nov 11 23:18
Does the legal action referred to have anything to do wit TQ?
By:
Thebas
When: 10 Nov 11 23:27
lol crow ... what it means is that the scab are fighting with bf only to have that exchange revenue go BACK into their own stream

as ziggy has correctly pointed out many people will just 'close shop' ... in regard to their gambling turnover ... if forced back into the filthy high margin mainstream sites of the scabs

the scab could easily 'soak' up this trader/bot turnover that only takes place on an exchange sytem ... imo bf win the case if that was the objection considered ... 'restraint of trade by forced closure due to unreasonable turnover excise' ... where the term 'turnover' has a different meaning to the scab compared to bf
By:
PowerToThePeople
When: 10 Nov 11 23:36
Deadly Earnest
The Australian Government should boot Betfarce out and nationalise the exchange industry.


Well won't that work wonderfully!! and exchang/tote with a take out of 15-20% of winnings every race , not every week.


Governments have such a sensational record of runnig such ventures, that why they hardly EVER handball them to private enterprise

FFS
By:
logroller
When: 11 Nov 11 01:26
IF, the courts rule in favour of NSW, thats a death nail in not only exchanges in this country but also the bookies, every state in Australia will go back to a turn over base tax evenually and our betting scene will revert back to the old dark days, no choice but to start openning up betting accounts with overseas operators again.

and by the way it is NOT illegal for Australian citzens to have betting accounts with overseas bookies
By:
Mrben
When: 11 Nov 11 02:16
I'll put this one forward. BF loses because  the govt want it to lose.

Power shifts back to tabcorp.It then establishes a betting exchange which the govt either gets paid to "licence" OR it is hived off seperatly and run by govt and then sold to the public, later to be taken over by tabcorp and buried.

Labor is  corrupt to its boot heels joe public can get nicked in its eyes.
By:
logroller
When: 11 Nov 11 04:02
the government starting and running a betting exchange.........pleeeeeeeeease what planet r u on
By:
VeryLTU
When: 11 Nov 11 04:12
too true loggy, the people in our fed and state govts. haven't got the ability to organise a piss up in a brewery ... imo.
By:
Mrben
When: 11 Nov 11 04:37
im on planet juliar logroller.

the govt started and ran tab if you remember.Back in 1961 when there were far more puritans than today.

Why is a betting exchange so far fetched?
By:
Happy Valley
When: 11 Nov 11 04:52
seems to me we have to conflicting but desirable policy objectives here

rather like full employment and low inflation or intelligence and happiness!

these are the kind of takeout for punters which a betting exchange allows, say around 6 per cent, and financing a healthy racing industry via decent prize money which the kind of takeout tab-style promotes

there needs to be some bright policy maker to be able to thread a way between the two and make them compatible, ie a cheaper deal for punters but not to the extent of shutting off the oxygen supply to the racing industry
By:
Happy Valley
When: 11 Nov 11 04:53
i believe a Govt is more than capable of having a betting exchange, as it could just francise it out

and what's more it is necessary because as i say above, if betfair goes - and i strongly believe it will lose its case - then betting will be driven to some underground/overseas exchange and that turnover will be lost to Govt and racing in total
By:
Happy Valley
When: 11 Nov 11 04:54
btw, lots of good views expressed here, imo, thank you guys
By:
Hal
When: 11 Nov 11 05:17
I still cannot get my head around any future exchange that has to pay a 1.5% product fee based on turnover, except if you accept a commission on winnings of 16%-20%
By:
PowerToThePeople
When: 11 Nov 11 05:22
How will turnover be determined.
surely not $matchedX2??

who is a backer and who is a layer.
I back a result- the other side they back the opposite
By:
Thebas
When: 11 Nov 11 05:23
hal ... if it was the tab ... that ran an exchange ... (and the recently appointed vic licence allows that to happen as part of its charter)

... then they would just be refunded by rnsw as what happens with the sc@b now ...

win/win for sc@b & rnsw ... but the %comm takeout would likely be higher than 5%
By:
logroller
When: 11 Nov 11 06:37
happy what do u mean underground off shore, most betting exchanges off shore r just as well regulated as any jurisdiction in Australia, and as for the Tab or Government running an exchange give us a break, it took the tab 10years just to start to update their internet portal which is sh!t, do u really think they will spend 5mill building a betting exchange platform, and then even come close to attracting enough liquidity to make it work, and as for the government yeah sure they r going to pass law to build and run a betting exchange, do u realize how silly that sounds, why do u and the government think gambling should be confined to our shores, surely it is any industry like any other service and should be able to perform to the rules and principles of best practice.
By:
THERE....IS....NO....SPOOOOON
When: 11 Nov 11 06:40
Deadly Earnest a.k.a. Warwick Capper Happy

I like you, you are funny Silly
By:
Happy Valley
When: 11 Nov 11 06:51
logroller i don't think the thoughts you are attributing to me, i do not think for one moment that gambling should be confined to national boundaries or in the usa state boundaries, indeed wrt HK i campaigned against this very thing

by off shore i mean where they have a tax haven, see above re gibraltor and the uk, by underground i mean the betting exchanges on the net which mop up HK, Aust, Macau, Sing, Malay turnover - logroller you seem behind the times, these are very sophisticated indeed and more or less a match for betfair

i stand by my comments about govt and a betting exchange,
By:
Happy Valley
When: 11 Nov 11 07:43
logroller - and also by underground i mean unlicensed, unregistered and paying no tax to any govt anywhere and making no contribution to horse racing either, there are a couple of massive ones in chinese and one big one elsewhere,

i hope this brings you up to date as i wouldn't want you to look silly Happy
By:
Happy Valley
When: 11 Nov 11 07:44
logroller - and also by underground i mean unlicensed, unregistered and paying no tax to any govt anywhere and making no contribution to horse racing either, there are a couple of massive ones in chinese and one big one elsewhere,

i hope this brings you up to date as i wouldn't want you to look silly Happy
By:
got beat by a whisker-again
When: 11 Nov 11 07:45
Those ones in Chinese must be hard to understandConfusedCrazy
By:
got beat by a whisker-again
When: 11 Nov 11 07:46
Imagine trying to put a multi quaddie on and having to type in 8 characters for each number..Surprised
By:
Happy Valley
When: 11 Nov 11 08:57
not if you're one of the six billion chinese - quite a large and untapped market, wouldn't you say? or do you want to be beaten by a whisker again.
By:
jimbob03
When: 11 Nov 11 09:27
dont think they will go
By:
logroller
When: 11 Nov 11 09:31
happy what r u on about, if u r betting into a non-licensed and non regulated betting exchange u have rocks in your head, come on tell me where or what there domains are....... try not to make things up
By:
got beat by a whisker-again
When: 11 Nov 11 10:05
Confuciuos say"--Man who bet on chinese betting--exchange, need to see psyciatrist"....Crazy
By:
Happy Valley
When: 11 Nov 11 17:31
logroller you are showing your consumate ignorance

these exchanges are massive and many, many players in asia are betting into them

it isn't for me to take the scales from your eyes, it is for you to have the breadth of vision to be able to do so rather than spout of, as above, and parade your own ignorance
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