angeleyz

well i'm keeping my fingers well and truly crossed that tomorrows racing survives this current onslaught of bad weather and in particular i'm hoping sandowns chase card beats the elements. although there are some really interesting races throughout the day, the 1.15 at the esher track is my main focus of attention.

saroque appears to have been installed the favourite for this 2m4f nice handicap chase at around 3/1, at least that is what he currently is. trained by venetia williams, this 7-year-old made a bright start over fences when finishing second to cruising bye over 2m5f at ffos las. it was no real surprise to see him win next time out, when beating glen countess at newbury but i would have to say i didn't think he really improved much in winning that day. based on that performance, i actually layed saroque last time out when he could manage only 3rd at plumpton behind no butts. to me he actually folded quite quickly that day and overall, that performance was way below his two previous efforts. it may be that the handicapper has caught up with him for now, but whatever the reason, he has to step up markedly on that to win here.

two horses stand out to me in this race and the one who is carrying my money is toby lerone. trained by dan skelton, i did manage to get a little money on at 4/1 earlier in the evening and will go in again at the best possible odds at some point tomorrow. according to comments in the racing post, they seem to suggest that he under performed last time out when finishing fourth to king edmund at kempton. i dont think he ran badly at all, in fact having looked at some of sectional timings of the race i think that performance is better than anything saroque has achieved over fences. however, he has ran better than that, most notably when making all the running to beat howards legacy at lingfield. if he was to repeat that effort, then i think he wins this.

of course it is going to be very interesting tactically as both saroque and toby lerone like to make the running. so it does open up the possibility that they may cut each others throats so to speak. if that happens then one who could take advantage is the unexposed but frustrating pistol. philip hobbs must be left scratching his head a little with this one as he certainly has talent, as he showed when winning a couple of hurdle races at newbury and sandown. he has only had two runs over fences to date and in both, made bad mistakes at important times. if he can get his act together, then off a mark of 124, he could go well.

so for me it has to be a lay of saroque. i would have thought he would trade shorter in running if employing his front running tactics though i will be happy enough to lay at around 3/1.

as i mentioned i have backed toby lerone at 4/1 and will try to back again at the best possible odds.



best of luck to anyone having a bet