angeleyz

bit of a weather watch today which is a real shame as there are a few races at catterick today that i was planning on getting involved in. at the moment the ground is soft but very heavy rain is forecast this afternoon, to such an extent that the ground could quickly become very heavy. but as the conditions are currently dry, then here are my thoughts.

the 2.10 is a novices handicap chase over 2m and with just 5 runners set to go to post, it's a pretty tight betting market at the moment. two horses really stand out to me here. firstly, fitandproperjob trained by anthony middleton comes here on the back of a easy 10 length win at leicester 10 days ago. that was a race where i layed the runner up who actually ran much better than i anticipated. by my calculations, that was probably a career best performance from the winner and even though the racing post comments say he has a 7lb penalty, i think they are wrong as the win came in a conditionals event and therefore races off the same mark. a similar performance here gives him every chance of following up. strangely enough, he has looked a little weak in the betting over the past hour or so as support has come in for hotgrove boy.

the other one i really like here and will be carrying some of my money is proud times. at around 6/1, he makes a return to the larger obstacles here, having been in pretty good form over hurdles. if he was to translate some of that form to chasing today, most notably when winning at plumpton back in november, then he would go very close to winning this.

as i have mentioned, there has been support this morning for hotgrove boy who is one i would neither back or lay. yes he was in the process of running a much better race last time when falling at the third last on his chase debut, but for me that always leaves a question mark over what effect that will have had mentally. i also get the feeling he would be better suited by genuinely good ground. that remark also applies to easydoesit who makes his chase debut here having won comfortably over hurdles at doncaster 7 days ago. he is certainly well treated on that form, as he too can race off the same mark as that win. but its worth noting that it came on gd/sft and looking at his other better performances, they also came on ground which is not as testing as todays.

one horse i cannot have at all is blackwater king and i was hoping to get stuck into laying this one. unfortunately i have only managed to lay a small amount at the moment between 7/2 and 4/1 and i am hoping that he may come in for some support as i would not lay at any higher than 4/1. although he has only had two runs over fences, he has not impressed me at all and last time out when 4th to suprise vendor at bangor, i think that really was a dismal effort and nowhere near good enough to win this.


best of luck to anyone having a bet