angeleyz

there are often occasions when i see horses that i would like to lay but are just too big in the win market. when this occurs, i have three options. leave the race alone, consider laying more than one runner to reduce my liability or to lay in the place market.

the main problem i find with laying in the place market is that often, liquidity is not that great, especially at small meetings in the early part of the week, but it can still be quite profitable.

the 3.50 at ayr today is a 2m4f handicap hurdle and knight valiant is currently around 10/1 in the win market. however if you look at the place market on here, you will find that barbera butterworth's 11-year-old is trading at around 2/1 for a place. at first glance he appears to be in reasonable form and is slowly coming down the handicap, having been dropped a further pound after finishing 4th to hit the top at catterick. in my opinion that run was actually around 7lb below his previous run when 5th to cumbrian farmer, which again came at catterick. the key here i think is the ground. throughout this one's career, he has always struck me as a much better performer on genuinely good ground and in order to win this race today, he is going to need quite a few of these to run below par.

on current form and under todays conditions, i can find five runners who should finish in front of knight valiant. there has been quite a move this morning for w six times and she would certainly make my shortlist of possible winners as last time out i dont think she was put into the race until it was pretty much all over. having been as big as 12/1 overnight, she is now down to as low as 6/4 and therefore any value in that one has well and truly gone.

i think the value now lies with amethyst rose who is currently as big as 11/1 in a place. having won a class 5 handicap hurdle at hexham back in november, i actually thought she ran better than that last time out, when 4th to mr utah at kelso.

others in with a chance include the unpredictable northern acres, see the legend and even to some extent, the complete outsider mrs grass.

so in laying knight valiant in the place market, i am quite happy to lay at around 2/1 and would be prepared to lay up to as high as 11/4.

best of luck to anyone having a bet.