angeleyz

well today was a bit of a let down with final delivery being pulled out, but hopefully a big day in store saturday with some terrific racing at cheltenham.

im keeping my fingers crossed that the expected overnight rain does not amount to a great deal, and conditions stay exactly as they are now, with the going forecast to be soft. the first race i am interested in is the 1.50 which is a grade 3 handicap chase over 2m5f. here i have absolutely no hesitation in taking on the favourite double ross, who has been installed generally around 3/1. personally i have already layed at around 7/2 and would be prepared to lay at up to 4/1 though i am hoping to get fully matched at under that price, and i am looking to win £1000 from the lay.

trained by nigel twiston-davies, he appears to be coming here at the top of his game having beaten cedre bleau by just over 4 lengths in a similar event over course and distance last time out. however according to my calculations, double ross ran almost a stone below his previous effort, where again over course and distance, he defeated cantlow by 2 lengths. the handicapper has now raised him a further 8 pounds and i get the distinct impression that he is best suited by genuinely good ground, therefore my first impression was that he would be one to take on. of course there needs to be something that i think can beat him under these conditions, and when taking a closer look at the opposition, it didnt take me long to come to the conclusion to lay double ross to my maximum amount.

to say i am keen on the chances of shangani would be an understatement. last time out at kempton, he showed real signs of a return to form when finishing 3rd to king edmund. ideally suited by soft ground, the handicapper has dropped him a further pound and he has run very well at cheltenham in the past, when finishing 4th to rajdhani express at last years festival. if he is in the same form then odds of 7/1 look very good value to me and that is where my money will be going.

at these weights, i think even at his best, double ross has to improve another 8 pounds to win but i will be extremely surprised if he can do that on soft ground. even if shangani disappoints, there are others who could easily be competitive against double ross in the forecast conditions. they include our mick who although was beaten some way behind unioniste at aintree last time, tends to run well here and looks fairly well handicapped on his run when second to golden chieftain at last years festival. wishful thinking, who finished in front of our mick at aintree, is the class horse of the race and did in fact win it back in 2011. i think his effort last time definitely showed signs of a return to form and despite top weight, it would be fooloish to rule him out.

i could actually go on and on as in finishing second to double ross last time out, cedre bleu did improve on his recent efforts, though i think it still fell way short of what he has been capable of in the past. Anyway i think i have said enough about the 1.50 and time to move on to another max bet race.

in the argento chase at 2.25, i am keen on taking on the likely second favourite houblon des obeaux. currently a best priced 7/2, i would be happy to lay at those odds given the opposition that waits. at first glance venetia williams 7-year-old would appear to be coming into this race in decent form having won a listed handicap chase at ascot just before christmas, beating cedre bleu by a neck. i would have to question the value of that form though as watching the final part of that race again, the paul nicholls runner looked much more likely to win going to the last, but looked as though he didn't put it all in and was eventually out-battled. In fact again looking at the form in general, i think it was way below what he achieved in some of his novice chases. If you take the form of the hennessey literally, then houblon des obeaux, who finished 6th, has a massive task against the runner up that day, rocky creek, as he is only 2 pounds better off for a distance of over 15 lengths. in laying houblon des obeaux, i will be looking to win £450 and as i mentioned earlier, i am quite happy to lay at 7/2 and if he drifts again i would lay to a max price of 9/2.

Apart from having to overturn a huge deficit with rocky creek, i think there could be a real value bet here too. although thrashed by captain chris when runner-up at kempton last time out, i was not particularly disappointed by the run of champion court, reason being i think he hates that track. cheltenham on the other hand is much more to his liking, having won 3 times here including his last win where he beat menorah by 3 parts of a length. if he was to repeat that kind of performance here then he would be very hard to beat.

so just to add that the above analysis is based on the going being soft. if the ground should turn heavy then i will be trading out of my bets.

best of luck to anyone having a bet