angeleyz

there are not many worse things when it comes to betting than watching a horse you had backed heading towards the line in front, only to be collared in the shadow of the post, or laying a horse that for most of the race looked held, only for it to stay on gamely and snatch victory on the line. one thing that is worse is when both things happen in the same race. for many people it can prove too much and i have seen many cases where punters lose their composure and, as in poker, go on tilt. it's easily done, i should know as i have been there myself in my early days of betting. i found that the best thing to do when a result goes against you is to just turn everything off, go and get some fresh air and have a coffee or something. take the dog for a walk maybe.

watching the replay of todays race was just as agonising as first time around. several times during the race i thought time to think was beaten and having backed have you seen me at 9/2, i thought a decent payday looked assured. yesterday i thought given a few more strides that smokethatthunders would have won to land a 10/1 bet and today the line just couldn't come soon enough. but thats the way things go sometimes and for anyone involved in betting, you have to learn to take the rough with the smooth. in my early days of laying, i would probably have smashed into the next few races in order to chase my losses and it took me a short while to realise that i didn't have to do that. as long as you use good bankroll management and have a decent strike rate, losses are not too difficult to overcome.

for tomorrow i fully expect to recoup some of those losses in the first at wolverhampton. final delivery, trained by jim boyle has been put in around 3/1-7/2 favourite for this handicap over 9 furlongs. i simply cannot have this one at all and i have started laying early here at around that price. i would be prepared to go as high as 9/2 but hopefully i will get fully matched at lower odds than that. for this race i will be looking to win around £600 for the lay.

why do i think he will lose? well first the positives. he has run pretty well at this track in he past, winning 3 low grade races. he would appear to be fairly handicapped, running off a mark 4 pounds lower than his last win. i notice the racing post and others suggest he ran a much better race last time out when 4th to whitby jet at lingfield. that is where i have to disagree. apart from looking reluctant to put it all in, my sectional timings of that race compared to when he finished 8th to lady lunchalot 3 starts back are very similar and if anything, i would say he has run a couple of pounds below it. comparing the form to his best efforts at wolverhampton, i would say his last run could be as much as 12 pounds below that form.

unless he steps up dramatically here, i really am struggling to see him winning. there are a whole host of runners here who could finish in front of him if anywhere near their best.

a couple worth mentioning are general tufto who at around 12/1 is more than capable at this level whilst at 20/1 the bay tigress has run better than her finishing positions may suggest and is still lightly raced and is also interesting in a first time hood.

so best of luck to anyone having a bet