Alexisonfire44

After a fast start by many of my runners, day two has provided many more questions than answers.

Anyone realistically from +2 or lower has a chance of winning this tournament. Both Lee & Luke had absolute shockers, and the odds on them both missing the cut must have been astronomic. Whilst Rory is still hanging in there, his game still suggests that he hasn't quite hit the zone on this links course just yet.

Of my picks, Kaymer stands out as my best selection so far now trading at 7/1 from a high of 29/1. Having taking Bjorn in play at 55/1, my other pre-event picks that are in the running include Overton, Palmer and surprisingly Fowler and Watson who are not too far off the pace. If Rickie puts in a decent round tomorrow of -3 or -4 he could well be in the mix come Sunday, which would yield huge dividends having now been slashed to 50/1 from 120/1. His putting form will decide the outcome.

Jason Day is also going along nicely albeit unspectacularly. Like I said before the event, it would be no surprise for his name to be at second spot on the leader board come Sunday evening and could be excellent value still for a top 5 finish.

Hopefully today my players kick on, and as much as I love Darren Clarke and Rory, I hope they both fade out of contention. My one big regret so far of the tournament is not backing Lucas Glover before it started because he is a player I normally always have on the teamsheet. One last bit of advice, whilst Mickelson may look well positioned at -1 and 26/1 odds, be careful if your thinking about backing him because he tends to not be the best finisher on the final two days of a Links course.

I'll update the blog before the final round tomorrow evening, and be praying that all of my picks occupy the top 5 spots, especially Rickie Fowler.

Well this one is certainly wide OPEN (excuse the pun)

Where do we even start with trying to decide who's going to triumph?

Can the young superstar Rory triumph again in emphatic style? Will Garcia ever hold it together in the final round of a major tournament? Can the yanks stop the Europeans from dominating the majors?

To start off with, let's look at the course, Royal St. Georges

A tough links course, you'd immediately have to say that it favours the Europeans if you're E/W betting, particularly those who grew up around Links golf (think G-Mac, Rory, Lee etc). The last time the Open was held here Ben Curtis won the tournament at 400/1 before the outset (a major shock) so it is clear that any outsider can win, just as Louis Oosthuizen did last year after McIlroy's second round collapse at St. Andrews. So let us look at the winners of the Championship dating back to 1990.


Year    Venue                       Champion           Country        

2010    St Andrews               Louis Oosthuizen    South Africa       
2009    Turnberry               Stewart Cink           United States       
2008    Royal Birkdale Golf Club   Pádraig Harrington  Ireland       
2007    Carnoustie Golf Links       Pádraig Harrington  Ireland   
2006    Royal Liverpool Golf Club  Tiger Woods         United  States       
2005    St Andrews               Tiger Woods         United States       
2004    Royal Troon                Todd Hamilton       United States       
2003    Royal St George's        Ben Curtis           United States       
2002    Muirfield               Ernie Els           South Africa   
2001    Royal Lytham & St Annes    David Duval           United States   
2000    St Andrews               Tiger Woods           United States       
1999    Carnoustie Golf Links       Paul Lawrie           Scotland       
1998    Royal Birkdale Golf Club   Mark O'Meara           United States       
1997    Royal Troon Golf Club       Justin Leonard      United States   
1996    Royal Lytham & St Annes       Tom Lehman           United States       
1995    St Andrews               John Daly           United States       
1994    Turnberry               Nick Price           Zimbabwe   
1993    Royal St George's       Greg Norman         Australia       
1992    Muirfield               Nick Faldo          England       
1991    Royal Birkdale               Ian Baker-Finch     Australia       
1990    St Andrews               Nick Faldo            England   


The table shows us that Americans have won 11/20 Opens so surely they have every chance of doing well? Put simply not exactly. The stats are misleading and furthermore Tiger accounts for three of those victories at a time when many regarded him as the best player to ever play the game of Golf. Whilst I'm certainly not writing off the Americans completely, many of them are afraid to travel outside America and are not used to links Golf. With that in mind let's look at the very best who may well compete and some outsides who present massive E/W value.

1. Rickie Fowler 110/1

Put simply Rickie is far too talented to be priced at triple figures. A phenomenal talent like Rory, he is still looking for his first win but it can't be far off. Has wobbled a bit in contention (like at the recent AT & T National) which accounts for his inflated price, but could easily put 4 solid rounds together and triumph here, especially as Ben Curtis triumphed who in my opinion is a far inferior American golfer talent wise.

2. Nick Watney 35/1

Recent winner of the AT & T National and has an absolutely tremendous putting stroke as of late which is crucial when scrambling on a Links golf course. Has already won twice this season on the PGA tour and is in red hot form coming into the open. Handles the pressure well. Solid pick and has already earned the most prize money on tour this season.

3. Matt Kuchar 41/1

Again, like his counterpart Watney, a very solid American player. Came over for the Barclay's Scottish open which is good preparation. Finished T10 on an incredibly volatile Links course which bodes well for Sandwich. Backed him at 59/1, slightly small now at 41/1 but still a very solid bet.

Other Americans to consider...

Steve Stricker (35/1), solid player and recently won his third John Deere classic in a row
Bill Haas (279/1), Priced up wayy too high, could be an excellent e/w pick
Bubba Watson (149/1) Nightmare French Open but still shouldn't be this big
Jeff Overton (169/1) Very consistent player, win must come soon, hugely overpriced
Ryan Palmer 280/1 A proven winner, huge odds.


The Americans aside now let us consider the top Europeans and the Rest of the World...

1. Lee Westwood 12/1

Surely HAS to win a Major soon and always close to the top. Finished in top 5 of last 7 Majors and has come so close at the Open in the last few years. Game is in great shape and simply cannot be dismissed.

2. Martin Kaymer 29/1

Had a fairly average season, but won the Dunhill Links Championship in September and since changing caddies (Luke Donald's brother is now on his bag) his form has improved. Furthemore, he is also already a Major winner and has the mental strength to make it down the stretch. Simply too big at 29/1.

3. Jason Day 39/1

Simply a phenomenal young talent, Australia's version of McIlroy/Fowler. Going for the 2nd place Major slam after finishing second at the Masters and second at the recent US Open at Congressional. Good E/W Value for a guy that clearly steps it up for the Major championships. Definitely one to watch out for in the future too.

4. K.J. Choi 54/1

Unfortunately for Choi, he has a difficult early morning draw. Still a huge price for a very fearless and steady golfer, who has already won the unofficial 5th Major of the year at the Players Championship. Draw may hurt him but very decent price for such a solid player.

5. Peter Hanson 94/1

Great Links golf player who handles windy conditions incredibly well. Had a very solid showing at the Scottish Open finishing T10 after a very good first two days. If it gets windy (which Westwood hopes it will) then Hanson has a very good chance of being in the mix.

6. Luke Donald 10/1

No-one has ever won the Scottish Open and gone on to win the Open and back to back victories are rare. Luke's Open form is also pretty terrible, his best effort being 5th in 2009. Having said that he is a completely different player now, is unshakeable under pressure and if he keeps his hot putting streak with him is bound to contend. Probably the best short-game player in the world right now.


Other Players to consider at huge odds

Adam Scott 79/1 Return to form recently and great showing at Masters
Robert Rock 139/1 Good first win at the Italian Open and steady Links player
Simon Dyson 259/1 Could be the sleeper of the weekend. Excellently suited to this golf course
Thorbjorn Olesen 379/1 Several top 10 finishes recently. Great form/knocking on the door
Kyung-Tae-Kim 299/1 Solid Asian player, 30th in World Rankings, very overpriced when taken at 519/1
Rory McIlroy 9/1 Fantastic talent but odds are too low and not sure he'll win this weekend


Final notes

He may prove me very wrong, but Sergio Garcia is being ruled out of the 'winning outright' market for me because he always chokes down the stretch (a prime example was at the BMV International Open a few weeks ago in Germany). I would also not put anyone off backing McIlroy, I just feel his odds are too short and a three week break from his US Open win might not be the best preparation.

Above all, look at when players are teeing off as the weather/luck are hugely important factors in this championship. Those with the early Thursday morning/late Friday afternoon Tee Times are likely to be at a strong disadvantage.

It will be very tight this year, I don't expect anyone to run off with it Woods style. Fantastic opportunities for backing players high and laying them off low, and hopefully we can have a British winner this year!

Tonight's Football

Plenty of value to be had if you fancy a punt in the second leg of the Carling Cup match between Ipswich and Arsenal. Absolutely no point backing Arsenal (1/8) unless you throw away hundreds for fun.

Ipswich, whilst huge underdogs, are still a very tempting (35/1) for the win and around (12/1) for the draw. Stranger things have happened in sport, and whilst I expect Arsenal will probably triumph, defiantly worth a punt on Ipswich with Betfair at those odds.

In the other of tonight's main games Blackpool take on United, who have looked unstoppable this season. Whilst I can see Blackpool sneaking a goal, this one should be a rout. Expect United, especially with an inform (finally) Dimitar Berbatov to win this one either 3-0 (9/1), or any other result (including 3-1, or more likely 4/1) at a tasty 3.5/1.
On a final note, Berbatov to score is appealing at (evens), but you never know which Berbatov is going to turn up.