Grand National
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THE 2022 GRAND NATIONAL.
THE 2022 GRAND NATIONAL.
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Replies: 80
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I think it is worth bearing in mind that Elliott has been keen on a lot of horses recently, but his current strike rate is 3% and 54 losers in a row.
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William Hill 25/1 Longhouse Poet NRNB 5 places plus possible boost.
May not run, but if he does, doubt he goes off that price. |
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longhouse Poet needs minimum soft ?
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Is Noble **** a likely withdrawal? 33/1 bookies 140 here
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4 of Longhouse Poet's first 6 runs were on a combination of good/yielding. They look perfectly reasonable efforts, but since then they have ran him on much softer ground. **** was better on quicker ground, and the dam was poor on anything.
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The answer must be 'yes' but I can't find any quotations. Rain required, so maybe the going is the expected reason.
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That was about Noble Y e a t s (no idea why it gets starred out)
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It's a 7 yr old !!
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Well, yes, but it was a 7yo when it was trading in mid-20s on here too.
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It isn't the build up to the Grand National until Bindaree has highlighted the insanity of picking a 7 year old to win the race......
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He hasn't been wrong yet!
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" the insanity of picking a 7 year old to win the race..." To get placed you mean
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Escaria Ten for me, as someone mentioned earlier the Galvin form looks really good, his first two runs this season were with first and second time cheek pieces and at times, certainly in the Thyestes he was on and off the bridal and seemed to wander when getting away from his fences, last time in Any Second Now's race he was much more professional and for all the credit the winner got I don't think the jockey was overly tough on Escaria Ten and would have won if it was really that important, it actually makes a bit of sense that he's now a little worse off with the winner. He looks like he'll just keep galloping who wants further and travels well and to that end it's encouraging that he's a half brother to a previous winner in Pineau De Re.
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He wore blinkers last time.
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I have only backed Fortescue so far but my short list are all still in the frame. The big surprise in the market is Deise Aba. He was beaten a nose by Highland Hunter over 3.5 miles at Sandown and HH was quite fancied until being taken out. I am not backing Deise Aba in case he is a non runner but intend to if is declared on Thursday. Will he really be 100/1???
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Ive just watched the x country again, watching Delta Work throughout, and it seemed that when they got onto the conventional track (finishing straight, watered) Tiger Roll started slowing down and was eventually caught.
If the course hadn't been watered, I wouldn't be confident that Delta Work would have won. I still think Delta is the most likely winner, but I am not quite as confident after watching that race again. |
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Fair points Marksman .... Delta is a bit of a conundrum.
The connections remarks after the x-country were all about how the ground had gone against Tiger. The bit they failed to add,how much did it favour the winner? Since he came to Elliot in 2017 he has raced on good ground 5 times,finnishing .... 2,1,1,1,1 The last time he raced on genuine good ground was dec 2018,which opens up its own set of questions. They have also removed the headgear since Dromore,has that made a difference? If he ran and beat a genuine 161 horse,on ground he may have hated,that was some performance. Add in the twists and turns of that unique course,again would that have suited him? Liked the horse since his RSA days,arguably he has not yet delivered on his undoubted promise. He gets that chance saturday,anything with "good" in the going description,he warrants respect. |
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The stat that is gaining some merit the longer it goes on is you have to go back to Mon Mome for a horse who did not win the race at it's first attempt (Tiger Roll of course did this and the following year ... so let's Minella Times in ,apart from having zero chance under top weight),
This knocks out eight and the two 7 year olds ......only 30 left to look at thenCool For me it is Enjoy D'Allen , Fiddlerontheroof and Escaria Ten |
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Money back if selection is balloted out or not met the cut, correct?
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That is correct.
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Thanks 'Marksman', even on Exchange?
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Yes. As a layer, it pains me to say that I will have to give the money back on any horses that don't make the cut. And furthermore, in the antepost market, there won't be any reduction factor applied to the ones who do run. (That's why the over round is somewhere between 122% and 112%)
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Thanks again 'Marksman'.
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Mark, is it my sour grapes, or are there far more ballotted runners than 10+ years ago?
I simply decided not to lay in this race after last year - I had a rope ready by the off. |
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Pete, I don't know whether it is getting any worse, but I learned to be careful with this race a long time ago. Of those not in the top 40, I've only laid someone a fiver on Eclair Surf at 16.0. I just concentrate on those in the top 40 and then, if any of them drop out, it's a bonus. Hopefully, on the day, Snow Leopardess will be my only red.
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Yeah, I've tried that approach, but never quite got it right. I've not lost much, but not been paid for the work, either.
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THE GRAND NATIONAL
3 against the field in no particular order * MINELLA TIMES last years winner, gone up in the weights and has run poorly in his two races this year, the expression “horses for courses” was probably invented for Aintree, for me he will either win or spit his dummy out second time around and run crap, so I wouldn’t back him each way if I backed it would be win only, currently 9/1 * DEIS ALBA runs well on flat tracks so Aintree should be perfect, he’s been running in Class 1 & 2 company , he’s 9 years old so should be in his prime, and has got a nice weight, each way bet currently 66/1 * DEATH DUTY ran well enough at Cheltenham and wasn’t given a really hard time when it was obvious he couldn’t win, stays long distances, each way bet currently around 40/1 Whatever you back good luck, as long as somebody takes money off the enemy known as bookmakers! |
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Outsider . Top Ville Ben . Won a grade 3 chase over 3 miles . Stamina shown in heavy ground hurdles .
Long shot . Freewheelin Dylan. Won Irish National . Recent form not great though with an unseated and pu. Reasonable chance Eclair Surf . Won grade 3 over 3m 5f . 2nd in Eider when carrying 11 11. Only has 10 6 to carry. Good luck and hope your horse doesn't get brought down-that's really annoying. Shropshire Lad -anyone winning is taking from fellow punters with the bookies taking a fee as middlemen. |
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> anyone winning is taking from fellow punters with the bookies taking a fee as middlemen.
So should we feel pleased when we lose? I'm confused now :) |
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If you lose you are helping out your fellow punters and keeping the bookies in work so you can congratulate yourself on your charity. When you win, you are still helping the bookie out and the losing punter will have a sense of charity.
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There is a lot of class in this years race, at big prices, and JP has done his usual Galway trick, taking out runners so his others get in.
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Alkeyhole 31 Mar 22 13:27
Is Noble **** a likely withdrawal? 33/1 bookies 140 here Hope you were on !!  |
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How classy was Ted Walsh immediate post-race, shaking the hand of Waley-Cohen the eldest ( good grammar - there were grandsons there too! )! He must have been absolutely gutted but still had the Irish goodness and presence of sporting mind to congratulate the winners!
Pure class! |
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Lovely to see a Galway winner win a big un
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LoyalHoncho, I always like to see good sportsmanship and respect. Ted Walsh should be an example to all the self obsessed whingers (that this social media age has created) of how to behave.
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Walsh was gutted, though tbf having already won the race in the past must make it slightly more palatable.
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"Hope you were on !! Cool"
Yeah got on at 95, not complaining!!! |
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The only negative was the fact he hit the horse more than the permitted times after the last.
He copped a fine .....400 quid and a ban ....which was like worthless in view of the retirement but frankly it was the same in the Gold Cup with johnson on native river. Its fecking cheating whichever you look at it. Just a change in the rules and a disqualification or two would do it |
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Four horses dead at the meeting I believe?
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