2020 GRAND NATIONAL

sizing john didn't last long, now out for the season.

Tiger Roll dropped 1lb and Magic Of Light, who at 10st 12lb is 4lb better off this time, look leniently treated?

Delta Work (FR) 7 11-10 170 Gigginstown House Stud, Gordon Elliot IRE

Tiger Roll (IRE) 10 11-10 170 Gigginstown House Stud, Gordon Elliot IRE

Bristol de Mai (FR) 10 11-10 170 Simon Munir & Isaac Souede, Nigel Twiston-Davies

Native River (IRE) 10 11-06 166 Brocade Racing, Colin Tizzard

Anibale Fly (FR) 10 11-02 162 JP McManus, Tony Martin IRE

Aso (FR) 10 11-02 162 The Bellamy Partnership, Venetia Williams

Cadmium (FR) 8 11-02 162 In Our Element Syndicate, Willie Mullins IRE

Elegant Escape (IRE) 8 11-02 162 JP Romans, Colin Tizzard

Top Ville Ben (IRE) 11-02 162 Harbour Rose Partnership, Philip Kirby

Beware The Bear (IRE) 10 11-00 160 GB Barlow, Nicky Henderson

Chris's Dream (IRE) 8 11-00 160 Robcour, Henry de Bromhead IRE

Alpha des Obeaux (FR) 10-13 159 Gigginstown House Stud, Gordon Elliot IRE

Jett (IRE) 9 10-13 159 GM McGrath, Jessica Harrington IRE

Peregrine Run (IRE) 10 10-13 159 V Byrne, Peter Fahey IRE

Total Recall (IRE) 11 10-13 159 Slaneyville Syndicate, Willie Mullins IRE

Magic of Light (IRE) 9 10-12 158 Ann & Alan Potts Limited, Jessica Harrington IRE

The Storyteller (IRE) 9 10-12 158 Mrs Pat Sloan, Gordon Elliott IRE

Voix du Reve (FR) 8 10-12 158 Andrea & Graham Wylie, Willie Mullins IRE

Ballyoptic (IRE) 10 10-11 157 Mills & Mason Partnership, Nigel Twiston-Davies

Talkischeap (IRE) 8 10-11 157 Charles Dingwall, Alan King

Yala Enki (FR) 10 10-11 157 Hills of Ledbury Ltd, Paul Nicholls

Burrows Saint (FR) 7 10-10 156 Susannah Ricci, Willie Mullins IRE

Definitly Red (IRE) 11 10-10 156 Phil & Julie Martin, Brian Ellison

Ok Corral (IRE) 10 10-09 155 JP McManus, Nicky Henderson

Sub Lieutenant (IRE) 11 10-09 155 Gigginstown House Stud, Gordon Elliot IRE

Tour Est Permis (FR) 7 10-09 155 Gigginstown House Stud, Gordon Elliot IRE

Crievehill (IRE) 8 10-08 154 Highclere T'Bred Racing- Crievehill, Nigel Twiston-Davies

Jury Duty (IRE) 9 10-08 154 Sideways Syndicate, Gordon Elliot IRE

Lake View Lad (IRE) 10 10-08 154 Trevor Hemmings, Nick Alexander

Vintage Clouds (IRE) 10 10-08 154 Trevor Hemmings, Sue Smith

Pleasant Company (IRE) 12 10-07 153 Malcolm Denmark, Willie Mullins IRE

Acapella Bourgeois (FR) 10 10-06 152 Slaneyville Syndicate, Willie Mullins IRE

Any Second Now (IRE) 8 10-06 152 J P McManus, Ted Walsh IRE

Champagne Classic (IRE) 8 10.06 152 Gigginstown House Stude, Gordon Elliott IRE

Mister Whitaker (IRE) 9 10-06 152 Tim Radford, Mick Channon

Potters Corner (IRE) 10 10-06 152 All Stars Sports Racing & J Davies, Christian Williams

Shattered Love (IRE) 9 10-06 152 Gigginstown House Stude, Gordon Elliott IRE

Death Duty (IRE) 9 10-05 151 Gigginstown House Stude, Gordon Elliott IRE

Dounikos (FR) 9 10-05 151 Gigginstown House Stude, Gordon Elliott IRE

Kildisart (IRE) 8 10-05 151 Simon Munir & Isaac Souede, Ben Pauling

Ramses de Teillee (FR) 8 10-05 151 John White & Anne Underhill, David Pipe

Acting Lass (IRE) 9 10-04 150 Nigel & Barbara Collinson, Harry Fry

Double Shuffle (IRE) 10 10-04 150 Crossed Fingers Partnership, Tom George

Kimberlite Candy (IRE) 8 10-04 150 J P McManus, Tom Lacey

Saint Xavier (FR) 8 10-04 150 David Maxwell Racing Limited, Paul Nicholls

Valtor (FR) 11 10-04 150 Simon Munir & Isaac Souede, Nicky Henderson

Walk in the Mill (FR) 10 10-04 150 Baroness Harding, Robert Walford

Warriors Tale 11 10-04 150 Trevor Hemmings, Paul Nicholls

Chef des Obeaux (FR) 8 10-03 149 Sullivan Bloodstockj Limited, Willie Mullins IRE

Class Conti (FR) 8 10-03 149 P Joubert, Willie Mullins IRE

Traffic Fluide (FR) 10 10-03 149 Galloping on the South Downs, Gary Moore

One For Arthur (IRE) 11 10-02 148 Two Gold Widows, Lucinda Russell

Romain de Senam (FR) 8 10-02 148 Chris Giles & Dan Macdonald, Paul Nicholls

Snugsborough Benny (IRE) 10 10-02 148 R Loughnane, Liam Cusack IRE

Dallas des Pictons (FR) 7 10-01 147 Gigginstown House Stud, Gordon Elliott IRE

Give me Copper (IRE) 10 10-01 147 Done, Ferguson, Mason, Nicholls & Wood, Paul Nicholls

Lord du Mesnil (FR) 7 10-01 147 Paul Porter, Richard Hobson

Now McGinty (IRE) 9 10-01 147 The Garratt Family, Stuart Edmunds

Poker Party (FR) 8 10-01 147 Robcour, Henry de Bromhead IRE

Steely Addition (IRE) 8 10-01 147 Step By Step, Philip Hobbs

Takingrisks (IRE) 11 10-01 147 Frank Bird, Nicky Richards

Borice (FR) 9 10-00 146 Simon Munir/Isaac Souede, Gordon Elliott IRE

Heron Heights (IRE) 11 10-00 146 Barry Maloney, Henry de Bromhead IRE

Hogan’s Height (IRE) 9 10-00 146 Foxtrot Racing: Hogan’s Height, Jamie Snowden

Regal Encore (IRE) 12 10-00 146 J P McManus, Anthony Honeyball

Activial (FR) 10 9-13 145 Roger Brookhouse, Tom George

Atlanta Ablaze 9 9-13 145 The Last Man Standing, Henry Daly

Cabaret Queen 8 9-13 145 SyndicatesRacing, Willie Mullins IRE

Dalko Moriviere (FR) 7 9-13 145 Ecurie Sagara, Jerome Larrigade FR

Dragon d’Estruval (FR) 7 9-13 145 Simon Munir & Isaac Souede, Nicky Henderson

Le Breuil (FR) 8 9-13 145 Mrs Emma Palmer, Ben Pauling

Outlander (IRE) 12 9-13 145 GOWING’S ELEVEN, Richard Spencer

A Toi Phil (FR) 10 9-12 144 Teme Valley 2, Gary Moore

Cogry 11 9-12 144 Graham and Alison Jelley, Nigel Twiston-Davies

Dingo Dollar (IRE) 8 9-12 144 M Warren J Holmes R Kidner & J Wright, Alan King

The Hollow Ginge (IRE) 7 9-12 144 The Ginge Army, Nigel Twiston-Davies

The Young Master 11 9-12 144 Mike Burbidge & The Old Masters, Neil Mulholland

Mall Dini (IRE) 10 9-11 143 Philip J Reynolds, Patrick Kelly IRE

Monbeg Notorious (IRE) 9 9-11 143 Gigginstown House Stud, Gordon Elliott IRE

As de Mee (FR) 10 9-10 142 The Stewart Family & Judi Dench, Paul Nicholls

Fitzhenry (IRE) 8 9-10 142 J P McManus, Paul Nolan IRE

Joe Farrell (IRE) 11 9-10 142 M Sherwood, N Morris & J Turner, Rebecca Curtis

Ravenhill (IRE) 10 9-10 142 Try Ravenhill Syndicate, Gordon Elliott IRE

Roaring Bull (IRE) 7 9-10 142 Gigginstown House Stud, Gordon Elliott IRE

Townshend (GER) 9 9-10 142 J D Neild, Nigel Twiston-Davies

Vieux Lion Rouge (FR) 11 9-10 142 Prof Caroline Tisdall & John Gent, David Pipe

Ami Desbois (FR) 10 9-09 141 The Reserved Judgement Partnership, Graeme McPherson

Missed Approach (IRE) 10 9-09 141 Alan & Andrew Turner, Warren Greatrex

Moonshine Bay (IRE) 7 9-08 140 Ann & Alan Potts Limited, Jessica Harrington IRE

Noble Endeavor (IRE) 11 9-08 140 Chris Jones, Gordon Elliott IRE

Out Sam 11 9-08 140 D Charlesworth, Gordon Elliott IRE

Fingerontheswitch (IRE) 10 9-07 139 Cahill, Atwell & Crofts, Neil Mulholland

Singlefarmpayment 10 9-07 139 N T Griffith & H M Haddock, Tom George

Kilfilum Cross (IRE) 9 9-06 138 Andy Bell & Fergus Lyons, Henry Oliver

Soupy Soups (IRE) 9 9-06 138 Equi ex Incertis Partners, Neil Mulholland

General Principle (IRE) 11 9-05 137 Gigginstown House Stud, Gordon Elliott IRE

Spider Web (IRE) 9 9-05 137 J P McManus, Tom Mullins IRE

Princeton Royale (IRE) 11 9-03 135 D Nott, P Beadles, R Clarke, Neil King

Scoir Mear (IRE) 10 8-12 130 J P McManus, Tom Mullins IRE

Rathlin Rose (IRE) 12 8-10 128 Fergus Wilson, David Pipe

Disco d’Authie (FR) 11 8-07 125 Mme Magalen Bryant, David Cottin FR

Prince of Scars (IRE) 10 8-07 125 Simon Munir/Isaac Souede, Gordon Elliott IRE

fred nrnb on the grand national.

Alpha des Obeaux (FR) 10-13 159 Gigginstown House Stud, Gordon Elliot IRE 33s pick of the weights for me.

I concur JWH. In fact youre the first person Ive seen to agree with me.
Was hoping it was going to go last season but missed out due to injury. However, done nothing wrong this year, splitting Clan Des Obeaux (now 173) and Delta Work (now 171) at Down Royal before running a belter in The Becher under top weight, running on nicely close home. Kimberlite Candy has franked the form too. 159 is very generous if you ask me.
Desperately hoping Tiger Roll runs to keep the weights down. Im on at 40-1 and 33-1 and will continue backing him as I think he has a first rate chance.

It’s so hard to leave Tiger Roll out of the equation, and though he’s not on the shortlist, certainly not at the current price, I’ll no doubt get involved at some point.

The only one I’ve bet so far is Any Second Now, 25’s NRNB, and 33’s. He’s my main fancy, but this is the shortlist for me just now, which has been changing weekly through the winter.....

Any Second Now
Champagne Classic
Snugsborough Benny
Sub Lieutenant
Poker Party
Give Me A Copper

Early thoughts

Having been on Magic Of Light at 260s bsp and 125/1 each way(available on the morning of the race) , I was gutted at her missing the last fence.
No reason she can't go well , but I won't be playing at the prices.

Tiger Roll has yet to prove he is even over his issue this season.

We still go back to Mon Mome for a horse not winning on their Grand National debut(of course Tiger Roll did this and more).
As such all the ones of interest to me , fill this criteria.

50 days to go



ones of interest (bsp)

Kimberlite Candy 21
Jett 74
The Storyteller 80
OK Corrall 43
Mister Whitaker 500
Poker Party 140
Talkischeap 85

other possibles
Saint Xavier 450
Traffic Fluide 55
Steely Addition 270
Champagne Classic 85
Shattered Love 230
Now McGinty 220

Test

Factors influencing my decisions this year.

Heavy-genuinely soft  Horses 11st and below.

if good is in description most horses will be considered.

Since the standard has increased I feel the horses have had to show their hand in even getting into the race which means I will be more influenced by those who have optimum conditions or improve for the trip.

Race has become more like cross country so cross country form will be giving an uptick.

Horses who have ran badly over thee fences without a valid reason I'll avoid.

I don't believe the race is as gruelling as in previous times and as such I don't see why a horse performing well last year can't come back and win this year.

I will write some comments about the chances of various horses in upcoming days.

Tiger Roll  - Not much we don't already know, a grand national specialist but this would be an amazing achievement from 170. Odds will also be shorter than they should be because of public support. I probably won't be backing him at the likely odds.

Native River - I'm excited to see him in the national as I think with his front running style and phenomenal stamina he is tailor made for it. I always thought he would be weighted out of it after winning the Gold Cup but he can win carrying 11st 6lb. If it's gd-sft I'll be backing him.


Burrows Saint - Impressively winning an Irish National at such a young age, however avoiding 7 year olds no matter how well fancied has served me well in the past and it's a rule I will be sticking to until shown otherwise.

Walk in the Mill - I thought he ran an exceptional race last year on ground that was probably too lively. If it comes up heavy-soft I will be backing him. Avoiding him on good ground.

Kimberlite Candy - Similar campaign to that of One for Arthur when he won the national, He's another one I will be backing if it comes up sft-heavy.

Anibale Fly  - Superb weight carrying performance in the mud 2 years ago and a good performance las year too. This will be the lowest weight he has carried in the national and if he shows some form between now and the national he should go closer.

Magic of light  - This has obviously been the aim all year and she may run well again, however her most recent run post weights was not encouraging as I like to my fancies coming into form post weights not going out of form.

Ballyoptic - Wasn't too far behind when he fell late on last year, jockey was starting to shove but no way of knowing if he would have responded. Does have the stamina required as shown in the Scots Grand National, however his overall record in these races is enough to put me off.

Definitely Red - He's not for me and although running well in the Becher chase I don't feel like he was finishing it particularly strongly for me to consider him here.

Ramses De Teilee - Ran here as a 7 year old and despite being only 7 I don't feel he ran well enough to be considered this year. He is in good form and if he hadn't ran here last year I would be strongly considering backing him.

Any Second Now - An interesting contender whose best performance came over 3m 2f and he looks as though he will improve for the step up in trip. He can be inconsistent with his jumping which will stop me backing him. I wouldn't be a layer either though.

Potters Corner  - Probably not classy enough to win from 151 unless the ground comes up heavy. In that case he has the proven stamina to be dangerous of a low weight.

Kildisart - This one looks interesting to me at a price. To me it looks obvious he is being geared for a spring campaign taking in a Cheltenham/aintree double. Whether he will go Kim Muir or the Ultima I am not sure but he is one I will be backing for both. Ran very well in a decent race at the last festival looking like he would improve for a step up in trip which was confirmed at Aintree. Has the same sire as Elegant Escape so marathon distances may well be in his grasp. I'll be backing him NRNB in the cheltenham 3m+ handicaps as well as in the National at massive prices.

Alpha Des Obeux  - Good performance in the Becher chase from top weight in the soft ground where he was staying on at the end, although nowhere near as strongly as the front two. Gets to carry under 11 stone here and he is a genuine grade performer. His record over marathon trips is inconclusive as he was badly hampered in the Irish national whilst he fell too early in the previous national he contested. If you think he will stay the trip he is a must bet but I do have my doubts.

Alpha Des Obeaux took a pearler at the Chair in 2018.
Ramses De Teilee pulled up last year , never in contention.
Ainbale Fly had his chance
Ballyoptic the latest to fall 3 or 4 out going ok , they don't go to win in another year.
Walk In The Mill doesn't stay the last mile.
Definitly Red - looks slow now and was wiped out at Bechers two year ago
Magic Of Light - had her chance , and ran very poorly on Sunday.

And they have all had a previous attempt....so they are all crossed off.

I disagree that Walk in the Mill didn't stay the last mile. He was one of the first off the bridle in that leading pack and was outpaced by classier horses on the ground. He has no chance of winning if it is similar ground but I would give him a chance from that weight on soft/heavy ground.

What do you think of Native River? I really think he can do it from 11 stone 6lb, less classy animals been doing it off 11 stone 5lb in recent years.

native river n/r with a tendon injury.

I too thought Native River would be ideal for Aintree , good jumper  likes to lead so would not be stick behind fallers .....but as reported.

After watching Kildisarts jumping today I won't be backing him in the national but did think it was a decent prep for the ultima handicap and have backed him 33/1 NRNB.

A horse to throw his hat into the ring today was Acapella Bourgeois. If it turned out to be soft ground I would be especially confident in backing him. We all know placing in the Irish national can be a massive indicator for the Grand National. He is a multiple grade winner and will only be carrying 10 stone 6lb!!

He does have bits and pieces of form on good, gd/sft ground but on balance I think soft ground would be ideal. I am actually surprised he is still 33/1 because on soft ground I think he is classier than those at the bottom end of the handicap,  namely walk in the mill and kimberlite candy who are shorter in the betting.

I still keep backing Ballyoptic after last week .
Should be a very decent EW shout

Little Polveir won a National having previously fell 4/5 out before, so Ballyoptic would be a possible with softish ground

Acapella Bourgeios has run a series of solid staying performances.
He was third in the Irish National , if they don't target that again , there are far worse contenders.

any second now, grand national fancy wins over 2 miles at naas.

Two very good performances from Acapella Bourgois and Any Second Now

Ashleigh, I’m happy with that today.

Trainer used 2m Chase at Naas as prep for Papillon and Seabass, and also for Comanche Court, before Irish National

89 LATEST STAGE

In 55 place off 10 stone is Regal Encore
Cant see anyone below that getting in realistically

16 taken out, including delta work,chris's dream and native river.

I've had my first bet on the race 33/1 Acapella Bourgeois NRNB on here. More than fair. I am assuming will only run if ground is suitable and I'd want to be on him at that price in soft ground. Also covers me if he goes for Irish instead.

Hold all Tickets ,be lucky if its on

Kimberlite Candy and Walk In The Mill ( both 20/1 )

I think Tiger Roll at 8/1 'with a run' is generous because he's unlikely to be that price on race day - a smaller one anticipated.

Im adding Takingrisks @ 66-1 to ADO and Any Second Now. Bet him in last years Scottish national and was gobsmacked when he won the Rehearsal. Thats worked out well with both 2nd and third now rated 11lb higher but he is only up 7 despite a decisive win.

Todays run blew away the cobwebs (though not sure why the cheekpeices were back on as he won the Rehearsal without them...) and should slip in nicely being 48th in the list.

Just as an aside, it wasnt reported in the press but Tiger Roll had a "wobble" after the Cross Country at the festival. Clearly had a hard race and something to bear in mind.

Ground would been spot on too
Good ground as well shame

The Conditional

Agree + 2 others ( on GN2021 thread ! )