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Callisto-moon
02 Apr 19 18:49
Joined:
Date Joined: 08 Aug 16
| Topic/replies: 7,643 | Blogger: Callisto-moon's blog
Ok ive had a few lays that have won already as they non runners but lets not after time.

A huge lay at the moment is Joe Farrel, not a hope in gods earth of winning as is not even in the 40 runners.
Its for is dire, trainer not great form. 26's on here to lay is like finding money.

More info posted soon.
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Report Mystiko91 April 2, 2019 7:18 PM BST
Agree that JF is unlikely to win, but I wouldn't be too keen to lay him on the basis of being a likely non-runner... only needs one more to come out now (with the defection of Sandymount Duke today) and there's at least a couple that could go for the Topham instead (Warriors Tale, Valtor, Vieux Lion Rouge?) or other possible targets like Scottish or Irish Nationals based on trainer/connection comments over recent days (Livelovelaugh, Ballyoptic, Up For Review, Magic Of Light), plus of course any more late injury or ground based withdrawals, so it could possibly go down to current #44 (The Young Master) or #45 (Baie Des Iles).
Report sageform April 2, 2019 8:26 PM BST
If it is balloted out you have a void bet, if it runs it could do a Foinavon.
Report Callisto-moon April 2, 2019 8:59 PM BST
The Young master is a win and place (4) lay too.
Report Mystiko91 April 3, 2019 3:14 PM BST
My understanding is that only declared as a "reserve" in the final decs on Thursday morning could be "balloted out" and result in a void bet (and money back).  Until then, you either back NRNB with a regular bookie, or take you chances on your selection lining up, and in the JF case it's look pretty likely he'll get a run, so my comment about not wanting to lay him on that basis is still valid.  Of course, if you were laying him as you think he's got no chance of winning at all (or even getting round), that's a different story!!
Report Bindaree April 3, 2019 3:20 PM BST
Surely you have to refund if ballotted out ?
Report Bindaree April 3, 2019 3:22 PM BST
Oops sorry, only read the post not Sageforms reply.
Report Callisto-moon April 3, 2019 5:59 PM BST
i thought on here that you won if it did not run regardeless.

ive bloody layed this at around an average of 80-1
Report Callisto-moon April 3, 2019 6:00 PM BST
so if it does not get in i win feck all if it does im sitting on a big liability.

good jobit can not win.
Report Bindaree April 3, 2019 8:25 PM BST
I think any SN winner will always have a serious chance in the English version for the simple fact it is a competitive handicap whereby you are a guaranteed stayer. Of course the proviso is the ground conditions whereby the SN is usually run on good going but Joe Farrel clearly acts on soft as well. Not saying it will win but certainly has more proven credentials than most off its' weight.
Report Callisto-moon April 3, 2019 10:29 PM BST
Day 1 lays:

1:45 bags groove
2:50 elegant escape
3:25 shytebello
Report Callisto-moon April 4, 2019 7:51 AM BST
ok studied over night, really loading up my lay of bags groove as there is zero chance it can reverse form, but as value im laying him in the 2 place market too.
see him in the bottom 3 at best.
Report sageform April 4, 2019 10:38 AM BST
If a horse is withdrawn by the owner or trainer you lose an A/P bet but if it is a non runner because it fails to get into the race under the safety limit your bet is void. Always has been.
Report sageform April 4, 2019 10:41 AM BST
Agree with a lay of Elegant Escape if you like laying at those prices. It was withdrawn from the GN as it had a hard race at Cheltenham and it needs at least 3.5 miles to show its best form.
Report Mystiko91 April 4, 2019 11:26 AM BST
Surely if it's an ante-post bet, i.e. before the final declaration stage this morning, if your horse doesn't get in to the final 40 (plus reserves) it's a losing bet?!
Report Bindaree April 4, 2019 12:49 PM BST
Only a losing bet if it's scratched. How could you have a bet on any of the lower rated ones if you didn't know it would get in the race ?
Report FOYLESWAR April 4, 2019 1:05 PM BST
bags groove and mengli khan around 8-9 /1 or better on here are the 2 i am interested in, track and trip could suit both, cant split them so 1 point win on each ,good luck all
Report Mystiko91 April 4, 2019 5:28 PM BST
"Only a losing bet if it's scratched. How could you have a bet on any of the lower rated ones if you didn't know it would get in the race ? "

Is that not part of betting ante-post as you don't know your selection will even make the cut? And are you talking with all bookies or just on the exchanges?  I always just assumed that any bets struck before the final declarations would come under "standard" ante-post rules and you'd lose your money if they didn't turn up on the day (for whatever reason).  So I can have a bet on a rank outsider for the Derby now, and as long as the horse is not scratched by the trainer, if it's number 21 on the day, I would get my stake returned?
Report Mystiko91 April 4, 2019 5:32 PM BST
Looks like Callisto misunderstood this situation as well, as it sounded like he was basing at least part of his laying strategy on the basis of JF not making the cut, and now that he has made the final line-up has been left with some fairly chunky liabilities!!
Report Mystiko91 April 4, 2019 5:34 PM BST
Actually, being another handicap, the Melbourne Cup is probably a better example/more comparable situation to the National.
Report Bindaree April 4, 2019 9:40 PM BST
If the horse is not scratched by owner/trainer but ballotted out you get your money back. Bet Vintage Clouds last year and was refunded. Would never bet a horse if I thought I would lose my money despite it being declared to run. Different if injured etc as that's the gamble you take.
Report Callisto-moon April 4, 2019 10:01 PM BST
i thought on here every none runner was a winner, you live and learn.

won on all 3 lays today so perhaps this is going to be a good festival.
Report bigH April 5, 2019 3:20 AM BST
If Joe Farrell wins the GN then this thread will be up there with the Mon Mome thread

In to 16's now.
Report Callisto-moon April 5, 2019 6:56 PM BST
no chance.
Report paulypaul April 5, 2019 7:09 PM BST
I'm on JF at 46 on here.
Report Callisto-moon April 5, 2019 7:24 PM BST
you gonna trade out?
Report Callisto-moon April 5, 2019 11:08 PM BST
The good lady has given me the key to the vast funds needed to do some safe but big liability laying
in the BIG ONE.

Time to unleash the study for the last time on the 2018 GN.
Report Callisto-moon April 5, 2019 11:08 PM BST
and the 2019
Report Callisto-moon April 6, 2019 9:21 AM BST
I have quite a portfolio of lays now all posted once im matched.
I know many of you wont want to lay over 10 horses so if i have time then i will pop them in order and with reasoning.
Report politicspunter April 6, 2019 12:20 PM BST
Can't wait. Is Mon Mome amongst them?
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! April 6, 2019 1:38 PM BST
Devil
Report Callisto-moon April 6, 2019 3:16 PM BST
Sorry had to pop in the pub to make sure the lads were not backing the no hopers!!
Report Callisto-moon April 6, 2019 3:36 PM BST
Right here we go:

Joe Farrell: utter joke that this is now under 33-1, total lay. As this thread says win and 4 places layed. Not a hope. (NAP)

Tea for two: Lady jock poor stable so out of form it would struggle in a sellrt (NB)

Blow by blow: his chancers are blown before the start

Valseur Lido: Why oh why would you run it in this flopped last year will flop even more.

Ultragold: So over rated jumps fand think hes a frankel, joke entry.

Monbed notourios: lol lol lol god knows why people are backing this.


The horses you have to be on.

Tiger Roll
The RATH
Minella rocco
dounikos
lake view lad

other ones with place chances:
vintage clouds
pleasant compant
rock the casbah
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