Grand National
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02 Apr 19
18:49
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Date Joined:
08 Aug 16
Ok ive had a few lays that have won already as they non runners but lets not after time.
A huge lay at the moment is Joe Farrel, not a hope in gods earth of winning as is not even in the 40 runners.
Its for is dire, trainer not great form. 26's on here to lay is like finding money.
More info posted soon.
A huge lay at the moment is Joe Farrel, not a hope in gods earth of winning as is not even in the 40 runners.
Its for is dire, trainer not great form. 26's on here to lay is like finding money.
More info posted soon.
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Replies: 32
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Agree that JF is unlikely to win, but I wouldn't be too keen to lay him on the basis of being a likely non-runner... only needs one more to come out now (with the defection of Sandymount Duke today) and there's at least a couple that could go for the Topham instead (Warriors Tale, Valtor, Vieux Lion Rouge?) or other possible targets like Scottish or Irish Nationals based on trainer/connection comments over recent days (Livelovelaugh, Ballyoptic, Up For Review, Magic Of Light), plus of course any more late injury or ground based withdrawals, so it could possibly go down to current #44 (The Young Master) or #45 (Baie Des Iles).
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If it is balloted out you have a void bet, if it runs it could do a Foinavon.
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The Young master is a win and place (4) lay too.
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My understanding is that only declared as a "reserve" in the final decs on Thursday morning could be "balloted out" and result in a void bet (and money back). Until then, you either back NRNB with a regular bookie, or take you chances on your selection lining up, and in the JF case it's look pretty likely he'll get a run, so my comment about not wanting to lay him on that basis is still valid. Of course, if you were laying him as you think he's got no chance of winning at all (or even getting round), that's a different story!!
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Surely you have to refund if ballotted out ?
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Oops sorry, only read the post not Sageforms reply.
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i thought on here that you won if it did not run regardeless.
ive bloody layed this at around an average of 80-1 |
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so if it does not get in i win feck all if it does im sitting on a big liability.
good jobit can not win. |
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I think any SN winner will always have a serious chance in the English version for the simple fact it is a competitive handicap whereby you are a guaranteed stayer. Of course the proviso is the ground conditions whereby the SN is usually run on good going but Joe Farrel clearly acts on soft as well. Not saying it will win but certainly has more proven credentials than most off its' weight.
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Day 1 lays:
1:45 bags groove 2:50 elegant escape 3:25 shytebello |
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ok studied over night, really loading up my lay of bags groove as there is zero chance it can reverse form, but as value im laying him in the 2 place market too.
see him in the bottom 3 at best. |
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If a horse is withdrawn by the owner or trainer you lose an A/P bet but if it is a non runner because it fails to get into the race under the safety limit your bet is void. Always has been.
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Agree with a lay of Elegant Escape if you like laying at those prices. It was withdrawn from the GN as it had a hard race at Cheltenham and it needs at least 3.5 miles to show its best form.
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Surely if it's an ante-post bet, i.e. before the final declaration stage this morning, if your horse doesn't get in to the final 40 (plus reserves) it's a losing bet?!
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Only a losing bet if it's scratched. How could you have a bet on any of the lower rated ones if you didn't know it would get in the race ?
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bags groove and mengli khan around 8-9 /1 or better on here are the 2 i am interested in, track and trip could suit both, cant split them so 1 point win on each ,good luck all
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"Only a losing bet if it's scratched. How could you have a bet on any of the lower rated ones if you didn't know it would get in the race ? "
Is that not part of betting ante-post as you don't know your selection will even make the cut? And are you talking with all bookies or just on the exchanges? I always just assumed that any bets struck before the final declarations would come under "standard" ante-post rules and you'd lose your money if they didn't turn up on the day (for whatever reason). So I can have a bet on a rank outsider for the Derby now, and as long as the horse is not scratched by the trainer, if it's number 21 on the day, I would get my stake returned? |
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Looks like Callisto misunderstood this situation as well, as it sounded like he was basing at least part of his laying strategy on the basis of JF not making the cut, and now that he has made the final line-up has been left with some fairly chunky liabilities!!
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Actually, being another handicap, the Melbourne Cup is probably a better example/more comparable situation to the National.
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If the horse is not scratched by owner/trainer but ballotted out you get your money back. Bet Vintage Clouds last year and was refunded. Would never bet a horse if I thought I would lose my money despite it being declared to run. Different if injured etc as that's the gamble you take.
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i thought on here every none runner was a winner, you live and learn.
won on all 3 lays today so perhaps this is going to be a good festival. |
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If Joe Farrell wins the GN then this thread will be up there with the Mon Mome thread
In to 16's now. |
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no chance.
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I'm on JF at 46 on here.
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you gonna trade out?
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The good lady has given me the key to the vast funds needed to do some safe but big liability laying
in the BIG ONE. Time to unleash the study for the last time on the 2018 GN. |
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and the 2019
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I have quite a portfolio of lays now all posted once im matched.
I know many of you wont want to lay over 10 horses so if i have time then i will pop them in order and with reasoning. |
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Can't wait. Is Mon Mome amongst them?
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Sorry had to pop in the pub to make sure the lads were not backing the no hopers!!
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Right here we go:
Joe Farrell: utter joke that this is now under 33-1, total lay. As this thread says win and 4 places layed. Not a hope. (NAP) Tea for two: Lady jock poor stable so out of form it would struggle in a sellrt (NB) Blow by blow: his chancers are blown before the start Valseur Lido: Why oh why would you run it in this flopped last year will flop even more. Ultragold: So over rated jumps fand think hes a frankel, joke entry. Monbed notourios: lol lol lol god knows why people are backing this. The horses you have to be on. Tiger Roll The RATH Minella rocco dounikos lake view lad other ones with place chances: vintage clouds pleasant compant rock the casbah |