2019 Grand National

Ballyhill not qualified to run = NR

Dunlaying, I am guessing 169/170 for BDM.
Meat Loaf, Ballyhill has a month to get qualified (assuming there is racing before then!)

That is my worry Rydal . 166 would nearly guarantee that every runner ran from its rating .

Dunlaying

It's not impossible. Tidal Bay was compressed 7 lbs back in 2014 (mind you he was 13!) also both Carlingford Lough and Many Clouds were compressed 5lbs off much lower marks in 2015. It's a long time since anything was entered with a rating as high as BDM. At a handicap rating of 166, they might well be tempted to give him a run.

Let us hope that common sense prevails and 166 it is .

Tough as ever, but went with a couple to add to main fancy Missed Approach

Missed Approach 70’s and 50’s EW
General Principle 33’s EW

Smaller win bet on Mall Dini 33’s, while I’d love NRNB for Sandymount Duke At 66’s, while same price I’d be very keen on Pairofbrowneyes, but he needs to qualify.

Fab

I'm not sure if he does need to qualify. He won the Leinster National, a 3 mile race, last year. However, at the last minute, they had switched the race from Naas to Gowran where the distance is 2m 7f rather than the official race distance. I don't know whether this counts as qualifying or not.

Forget that Fab - I've just seen that Willie says he still has to qualify.....

Yeah Rydal, I hadn’t realised myself, it was his comment today that gave me the heads up. Still like him though, and I’ll keep an eye on the future entries....

I think that they entered the Leinster National last year to get him qualified. They may do the same again, or go for the Daily Mirror Chase at Down Royal (it's usually easy to get a first 4 place in that - only 4 ran last year!))

Anyone staying in Southport again this year?

Apart from Tea For Two the other one to catch attention is the scoundrel that is Singlefarmpayment.
There is a very big staying prize in this hoss.

I think Minella Rocco has a decent chance in this and is overpriced @33's when he was around top weight in previous seasons he was one of the antepost faves. He seems to be a forgotton horse he's still only 9. I watched him in the paddock before his comeback run at Chelt and he didn't look fit so wasn't surprised with the poor run. He is being trained to peak for this race only this year. This is a horse who finished 2nd in a gold cup, beat Native River over 4 miles at the festvial, versatile ground wise I reckon he is being laid out for this.

My three at this stage would be:

One for Arthur 46s (about to run a big race at Haydock until unseating - nicely in with 10.10 - price is too big given his win 2 years ago))
Mall Dini 36s (Looks laid out for it and has some class)
Minella Rocco 33s (if good ground)

Mall Dini

Looks like he should improve for the trip, a bit wary of his hold up style but has a great weight and the class to win this.

Abolitionist

3rd in the Irish national and to me it looks like the owner has just sent the horse to Dr newland with the sole intention of having an crack at the national. Irish national form can work out well at aintree and aside from that there is no telling if Dr Newland has eeked out any improvement since he was impressive on his sole start for him. It's took my eye that he is entered in a grade 1 this weekend and any sort of decent run there will have his price tumbling.

Rathvinden

Certainly stays and will relish the trip. Has a touch of class about him but would like to see him run this season before backing him.

backed Abolitionist 40 on here, 33/1 e/w with bookmakers.
can't run in the ascot chase saturday, because of the flu vaccination situation, possible targets are the kim muir or a veterans chase at newbury.
number 59 on the list, so hopefully will get in, dr newland knows how to win the race, and this horse might be better than pineau de re.

Many appeal but Blow By Blow and Exitas are interesting at 100/1 .
Exitas is better than ever this season and is quite nicely weighted . If you cherrypick his form you could even say very well treated . The problems being that he is likely to need good ground to allow him to get home and that he is not certain to get in .
Owned by Gigginstown Blow By Blow will get in if he is good enough . Well weighted , has Spring form and can be turned on and off like a bedside lamp . Ground shouldn't be a problem either and he works left handed . True his form can be crabbed but at 100/1 he is value for a speculative punt .
Some Neck comes into the reckoning by virtue of the above but I prefer Gordon's horse .

missed approach out injured.

Real shame about Missed Approach

Other scratchings....

Auvergnat
The Dutchman
Rogue Angel
Lieutenant Colonel
Skipthecuddles
Acapella Bourgeois
Allysson Monterg
Callet Mad
Jarob
Westerner Point
Ballyarthur

Nice run from Pairofbrowneyes to take the Leinster National, and resolve the qualification issue at the same time.

I was happy with that Rydal, fingers crossed he gets there now.

Tiger Roll ran another stonking race running away from his rivals without seemingly breaking sweat - just awesome; he's running even better than last season before winning here.

It was a staggering win.

More weight and he won't get away belting one like he did last year four or five fences out .

Stats say horses don't win more than once and the last 10 winners won on their first attempt at the race.

Tea For Two was just moving up when he unseated , he will be happier over conventional fences.

Not quite sure what the fascination is with Tea For Two. I know it's shown some sort of form occasionally in small field conditions races( a while back now) but doesn't really fit the profile for a big field handicap.

I think firstly the price , secondly the National looks like a long term plan , thirdly it was going awfully well till the stumble and in addition it has dropped a lot in the weights .It rarely runs in big fields granted , but when you were off 164 it wasnt easy .

It's all opinions really I as I didn't consider it to be going awfully well and it was a long way from home. Being well in at the weights with a few of that field I would have wanted it to be able to lay up with the pace a lot easier. As far as I can see it's only run in two handicap chases and been beat quite comprehensively, one of the times on a lower rating (allowing for the jockey allowance)than what it has now. It reminds me very much of Double Shuffle who obtained a fluke rating by virtue of one run. I'm not however saying it can't win but for me it just doesn't have the right profile.

Cheltenham has thrown up 4 serious contenders eg Tiger Roll, Anibale Fly, Vintage Clouds and Elegant Express. Both 'sly and 365' are nrnb.

Along with Rathvinden and Mal Dini these 6 are the favs.

Interesting runner tomorrow is Ms Pavios

Sixth in the Hennessey , travelled superbly until tiring in the straight.
Not run since , expect it to win and shorten up tomorrow.

Next forfeit stage Tuesday 19th March 12pm

Fine effort from Ms Parfois yesterday,giving weight to an improving stayer,she jumped superbly and battled all the way to the line.

Three weeks to get over that would be the question,I was half expecting an educational run following that lengthy absence.She has a lovely racing weight as things stand,would appear to need soft conditions to shine,just how forward she was is guesswork,very likeable mare.

NTD holds the weight card with BDM,he has another couple entered on decent looking marks,be interesting to see if he does run the grey.

Pairofbrowneyes does look interesting,10-02 also looks appealing,currently 49th on the list.

Elliot has 11 in the top 40 as we stand,with a few more waiting in the wings depending how many above withdraw,not sure where I stand with that,quite remarkable if they all run.

Had one in mind for this for the best part 12 months,has an entry,still not convinced this will be the plan,hang on to him for a bit until plans are clearer.

I would imagine Ballyoptic will be NTD main hope assuming it's ok. Has had a sight of the fences and I know it fell but it appeared to have what I call a soft fall and had jumped well up to then. One horse that interests me is Noble Endeavor who seemed to have an easy race at Cheltenham and was gradually making late progress until stopped after the last by a faller. Will know Tuesday anyway if that is the case or perhaps it's not as good as it used to be.

Does anyone know how Abolitionist came out of the Cheltenham run over hurdles

I don't know but I would struggle to fancy him after the last 2 runs, definitely an interesting one before the run the other day but I would have doubts about them even entering now. They interviewed the Doctor at Cheltenham before the run and it seemed to be he was suggesting that they were looking for something like the prep run Pineau de Re had, otherwise they may not run

yes but strange tactics to make the running at that pace

Tiger Roll has an excellent chance of becoming one of half a dozen horses that have won back to back Grand Nationals.

Not much is being said about Pleasant Company this year, can't quite understand why he is 6 times the price of Tiger Roll, he even gets a couple more pounds from him this year.

Cant help but feel like Tiger Roll is a silly price now. Yes he won at Cheltenham but the race was really poor. He was clinging on last year and given a brilliant ride he now has extra weight to carry. The record of national horses coming back is awful as well. I love the horse and backed him at 50/1 to win this last year but there's no way he is winning it back to back as much as it would be a great sight.

81 left in after today's forfeit stage, taken out
elegant escape,sizing sodelco,royal vacation,black corton,give me a copper,edwulf,american,traffic fluid,total recall,master dee,the last sumari,some neck,willie boy,ballydine,ballyhill and back to the thatch.

I did say Elegant Escape was a very doubtful runner.

EE has been withdrawn despite Tizzard senior stated "he ran an excellent Grand National trial in the Gold Cup". Well, a stab in the back for backers taking his word as gospel. As usual the market indicated he could be doubtful given the excessive generous prices on offer.

If the running of Tiger Roll in the X-country and Boyne Hurdle are repeated here he'd start even shorter than the present 4/1, and a repeat of last year highly probable, all things being equal, in my opinion; he's been sensational so far.

Tiger Roll seems to have the perfect jumping style for Grand National, no extravagant jumps, brush through the fluff on the top half of fence, how did he get round last year?

Vintage Clouds struggling to get in ......again.

Tea For Two , Magic Of Light , Lake View Lad , Ms Parfois , Ramses De Teillee and The Storyteller my 6 against the field at this time.

Vintage Clouds is sure to get in already no.45 on racecard.

I think Vintage Clouds is a near certainty to be given a slot. He's 45th, but 3 above him have been downgraded thus he's 42nd; Elliot has a few entered, and with the Irish National in mind eg Outlander and A Toi Phil I think would be non-runners for me; Valtor for Hendo is another unlikely one.

Question can you offset lays on the race
if they are in the top 40,or is it seperate
lays still?
cheers.

I don't think you are correct regarding Vintage Clouds. He is 45th on 10st. The 44th horse is on 10-1 and will not come after Vintage as the original weights can't be altered. It's only where 2 or more horses are on the same weight vying for the last position whereby a pecking order comes into operation  based on performances after the weights are issued.

I'm only quoting Martin Greenwood, the official handicapper, on Sportinglife.

I think you will find it is as I've stated, which is how it's always been. You're not going to get a horse with a lower rating taking the place of one with a higher one once the weights have come out. Carole's Destrier would be number 50 now if that was the case.

I've actually read what you are talking about but he was talking about horses who are on the same rating but have since dropped.  Here are his actual word; " As things stand, Vintage Clouds needs five horses above him to come out to get a run in the Randox Health Grand National. There are currently five horses on a rating of 144, but three of those have already dropped in the ratings which will work in Vintage Clouds' favour".

"There are currently five horses on a rating of 144, but three of those have already dropped in the ratings which will work in Vintage Clouds favour".

Does that not insinuate Vintage Clouds only needs two horses above him (after those three downgraded in rating) to drop out to guarantee a run? I stand corrected, if wrong.

No , he needs 5 to drop out at the moment. The horse at 44 (Abolitionist) is rated 145 not 144. Of the 5 horses rated 144 Vintage Clouds takes precedence because he was raised to 149 after Cheltenham which puts him on a higher rating than the other 4 on 144.If he hadn't been raised or the others lowered since the weights came out there would be a ballot if there were less than 40 horses with a rating 145 or above. I think what he is also saying is that 3 of the horses on 144 have had their rating lowered since the weights came out.

Can't see Bristol De Mai being asked to carry 11 10 so soon after the Gold Cup , probably some of the Gigginstown horses will wait for Easter Monday , Ultragold for the Topham perhaps.

Looks like he will make it .......unless they choose to run in the Scottish version again.

Last years third and fifth look to have little chance of getting in.
Becher Chase winner (should get a fasttrack as an incentive imo) struggling to get in.

Thanks. 5 to drop out? I think that is a probability given the multi entries from several Irish trainers eg Elliot and Mullins, and the proximity of the Irish National.

I think it certainly deserves to get in after being denied last year by horses with false ratings. It's contested some of the more competitive races unlike some who have hidden away just to get a run. He can always withdraw Warriors Tale if he is one shy of making the cut.

Tiger Roll is far too short and I'll explain why I think so. I like the horse and wouldn't begrudge him the win but think he is a lay at the price.

He is running off 159 and is very likely to be carrying 11st 5lb, the last two horses to win at around this mark were Neptune Collonges and Many Clouds. Both of these were high end grade 2 performers who could be very competitive in the right grade 1 chases. Tiger roll for me doesn't have the same chase form as these two did. Secondly the ground was good on both of these occasions and I know he won the triumph on good ground (although the time suggests it may have been slower than good but for me he has better form in soft conditions. If the ground is soft then he has an almighty task on his hands. Anibale Fly placed from a similar mark last year and that horse is classy enough to place in two gold cups. Would Tiger Roll manage that? I suspect not as otherwise he would be entered.

Another factor to think about is that if the ground does turn soft there are more threats from the bottom of the handicap than there were last year. I believe Vintage Clouds, Ms Parfois and Mall Dini would all be dangerous from their welter weights in soft ground.

The long range weather forecast doesn't particularly suggest soft ground but as I've mentioned on other threads Rathvinden looks bomb proof to me. He handles both soft and good ground. I don't see any classy horses near the top of the weights who would relish good ground and the distance. He's the one I keep coming back to and I think he has less dangers on good ground than he would on soft ground.

Ms Parfois is a great bet NRNB 25/1 based on the assumption she'd only run if it was soft (dangerous to make assumptions I know). I thought she travelled and jumped beautifully last time out carrying 11 stone 4lb. Would carry over a stone less here and slightly less testing conditions would be a bonus.

Pleasant Company has his chance in ideal conditions last year. Yes he was very close but I think the Tiger Roll price is based on that he looks like an improved horse this year.

Apairofbrowneyes would be one to consider on soft ground too.

I've already backed

Rathvinden going to double aftertime because when I checked I did the billy boost and actually got 36/1
Abolotionist 33/1 - Don't really fancy him anymore after his last two runs. Given that Dr Newland was very patient and careful to make sure he made the national in one piece I thought he may have more to offer but we haven't seen it yet if he has.
Mall Dini 20/1 NRNB - Kim Muir form often works out well in the National. Has been given a few quiet rides and I fancy him to stay.
Ms Parfois 25 NRNB - Think he chances hinge on soft ground would have a great chance if it is soft. Hope she is withdrawn if it's not soft.

If indeed it turns out to be soft ground I will probably add vintage clouds and apairofbrowneyes if I can still get 20/1 or above.

On good ground Rathviden and Mall Dini will be enough for me.

I think Noble Endeavor has a serious chance if it has retained it's ability which as a 10 yr old you would hope as long as it's lay off for whatever reason hasn't diminished that. I'm a massive fan of Vintage Clouds but on all known form Noble will finish in front of him and if he does that makes him the horse to beat for me. All conjecture of course and open to constructive opinions to the contrary.

wouldnt swop my 25/1 tiger Roll BF for anything now so impressive this year seems to be getting better each run but in case of a possible B/Down had a little e.w Anibale Fly, only other consideration Lake View Lad if it was genuinely soft or heavy.

PAIROFBROWNEYES 34.0. 9lb well in on his Irish mark.

^^
He's 28/1 here (34 Exchange) but only 14/1 for the Irish version. Could that be indicative of his probable intention?

Suppose it could be but was just a passing thought for me once I'd seen the 9lb difference. Why stay in Ireland and run off a 9lb worse mark. But trainers, owners, who knows?

Brian Hughes will ride Abolitionist as STD could not commit at this stage.
He did too much in front at Cheltenham with the cheekpieces. Will be ridden with more restraint at Aintree.
Main worry is stable form

Bristol De Mai a non runner, weights will go up by at least 4lb.

Daklondike now scratched which allows Pipe's other runner, Vieux Lion Rouge, in at number 40. Vintage Clouds now needs three to drop out.

There were quotes from Nicholls yesterday which indicated (not in so many words admittedly) that Hemmings might withdraw Warriors Tale to help Vintage Clouds get in if necessary.

Technically he could also buy Don Poli and Outlander at the sale on Thursday night and declare them non runners before the Friday deadline, allowing Vintage Clouds to get in as a reserve

That scenario appeals to my warped mentality but I think it's academic -very likely Vintage Clouds will get in anyway.

I think Vintage Clouds will get a run, but Anibale Fly (top weight/hard Gold Cup), Warriors Tale (trainer favours Topham), Jury Duty and Pairofbrowneyes (market indicating the Irish version) would be scratched.

Can't see Anibale Fly coming out.
Only had 2 runs this season and finished like a train in the Gold Cup.....had no problem running in both last year.

There will be others coming out no doubt Ultragold in Topham perhaps.

Mr Hemmings will have 2 quality contenders for the race this year.

A horse who initially flew under my radar and I think is a massive price is Monbeg Notorious. You do have to forgive him his Irish National run but I believe his handicap win at Gowran as well as his second at punchestown are two pieces of form which suggests he is over priced. He hasn't shown his best form this year but his last run screamed of a horse who is about to peak. Being out of Milan with presenting as a damsire he certainly has a few National winners in his pedigree. I'm not entirely sure if he is ground dependent as the only time he raced on good he won a hurdle race from the very decent Moulin A vent. The front two pulled well clear that day. I think at the prices he is worth a couple of pound.

Technically he could also buy Don Poli and Outlander at the sale on Thursday night and declare them non runners before the Friday deadline, allowing Vintage Clouds to get in as a reserve

Marcus Armytage article for Telegraph writes Mullins says he's picking the 5 of his who look likely to get a run, that includes Pairofbrowneyes. Also Robbie Power says he's confident he'll be fit to ride Jury Duty.

blaklion out injured.

Lake View Lad is my choice, Ran very well at Cheltenham.

I like Lake View Lad too however, he did have his ground (Soft) at Cheltenham (presently Aintree is good to soft and friendly weather forecast), but no better off with Vintage Clouds despite 2l adrift of the latter at the line.

Lake View Lad , Vintage Clouds and Anibale Fly all put in eyecatching(or is that eycatcher) displays at the festival finishing strongly over 3 miles + at the festival.

Abolitionist a non/runner.

blacklion 350 grand, twister having a double tonight, new owner of blaklion sid he,d looked at don slowly and outlander as a buy but decided against it

Ashleigh where did you see Abolitionist a nr?

Abo NR was on the Racing UK website (Newland interview).....

Thanks Rydal

Catch Me ifyoucan    31 Jan 19 12:56 
£100,000.00 sterling - thought it was alot more ?




:15 Randox Health Grand National Handicap Chase 4m 2f 74y
(Grade 3) (Class 1) £1,000,000 added
Winner £500,000 2nd £200,000 3rd £100,000 4th £65,000

any thoughts what ruby might ride, was thinking rathvinden over the proven pleasant company?

I'd expect Bristol De Mai, Alpha Des Obeaux, Blaklion, Daklondike and Abolitionist to be officially scratched come 12pm tomorrow of Confirmation of Entry Stage; Valtor, Mala Beach, Shattered Love, Warriors Tale and Pairofbrowneyes, some if not all, too, I'd think.

I think Walsh would ride Rathvinden, Townend (Up For Review) and Mullins (Pleasant Company) as last year.

Elliot said no Alpha, Storyteller and Shattered Love and Mala Beach needs rain to run; could run 12 if the rest get in. And that means Vintage Clouds is assured of a run.

69 remain at 5-day stage - scratched horses are Bristol de Mai, Vieux Morvan, Abolitionist, Daklondike, Alpha des Obeaux, Ms Parfois, Blaklion, The Storyteller, Shattered Love, Polidam, Yala Enki and Sub Lieutenant. Last year's third Bless the Wings and Becher winner Walk in the Mill now guaranteed a run. Captain Redbeard at 41 as we stand.

Captain Redbeard may be ahead of Bless the Wings, I think...

Still half the runners from ireland
Looking at another 1234
Plenty in off low weights
And like many of the entries
Unknowns on stamina

ground doesn't look like it will be as soft as the last couple
keen on jury duty 25s & dounikos 40s
lakeview lad on soft ground would be a bet for me @ 20s

Valseur Lido for me. In really good form of late and 66/1 looks nice.

Actually his form is horrendous but he did look like he was enjoying it last year and a stone taken off on better ground and on a going day he wont have to run much better than last year to sneak a place.

Pairofbrowneyes has been scratched so Joe Farrell will run

Yep, Pairofbrowneyes is out, but the horse is sound (that's the good bit).

Mullins at it (again)...last minute withdrawal. Pairofbrowneyes has always been much shorter for the Irish version all along despite good soundbites from Mullins recently eg 10lbs well-in; his price contracted too yesterday for that version scheduled for Easter Monday. Commiseration to his backers.

Good luck all!

Tiger Roll What an absolute star of a horse. I've never seen an easier winner at Cheltenham and then he follows up in the National.

What a wonderful result for connections and Tiger Roll supporters and backers! The little mouse kept creeping closer and closer at each fence, and only took it up 1 fence out without breaking sweat; won by just under 3 lengths.

A repeat next year, if sound, (surely) to emulate Red Rum. But almost certain of top weight, I think.

I wouldn't put it past him. He lost a few lengths at various fences but still looked to be cantering at the elbow then always doing enough. Legend.

Fabulous performance from Tiger Roll but no more 7 yr olds or Minella Roccos, Valseur Lidos, Folsom Blues, Just a Pars, Warriors Tales, Captain Redbeards, Regal Encores etc etc. You've had your chance and quite frankly I consider it disgraceful that your trainers/owners entered horses that were either completely unsuited to the race as shown by previous attempts or in the case of Minella Rocco is clearly gone. If the trainer/owner wasn't aware of that you have to wonder what is going on, but I would imagine they did know because it wouldn't have started at the price it did.

Yep,well done Tiger Roll.

I suspect though had Magic of Light not ballsed up the last,the coversations on here, the media and pubs and homes,would be rather different.
he was closing on the run in after losing all momentum.
Still, its about jumping.

^^
Nah..., TR won it handsomely.

Magic Of Light (MoL) did make a couple of mistakes, but so did Tiger Roll (TR) - TR knuckled on landing (2x) and (1x) nosed the ground. If they were to run against each other (again) over the same trip, ground and track the result would be the same; TR was cantering, and if anything, got to the front too soon (Russell had little choice given the ease TR went past MoL), I firmly believe.

If TR is allocated no more than 11st 9lbs, and no Gold Cup newbies entered eg RSA winner and ABP/Kemboy/Lostintranslation I'd back him for a 3rd repeat; he was 8/1 nrnb with 365 immediately post O'Leary's negative comment about his participation next year.

Well its all about opinions imp.
She was up there all the way,and running on at the end,despite clattering the last and losing momentum she was closing on Tiger Roll,and got beat 2 and 3/4 lengths.
Just watched it again,and i am far from convinced the result would have been the same without that mistake.
Like i said though,its all about jumping,

Tiger Roll 8/1 for next year,Magic of Light 33/1.
Thats far too much difference and i am having some of that.

I should have added, an equally fabulous performance from Davy Russell !!

As you said, it was about opinion. You made a valid point about the mistake Magic Of Light made at the critical juncture. Then again TR could have done with a bit more tow and/or company from MoL. Also, TR was shut-in by Vieux Lion Rouge and one other after 5 fences. By the way,'Sly' is nrnb for 2020 on this race with Magic Of Light 25/1 or 33/1.