Grand National

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13 Apr 18 18:06
Date Joined: 16 Jun 11
| Topic/replies: 3,390 | Blogger: GoldCupWinner's blog
Given the going I have focused only on those carrying under 11st, like the ground and are proven stayers.

Raz de Maree - it's been a long time since a 13 year old won but he clearly stays and will love the conditions. Seems to be in the form of his life going into this, as were recent winners ballabriggs, pinau de re and arguably many clouds. Ok he isn't well handicapped but all horses this year but you can pick holes in all the horses in these conditions.

Milansbar - Another who will have ideal conditions and will stay. He's in decent form and his handicap mark has rose as a result.  Won the same race as one for Arthur did last year and is reunited with the same jockey albeit without the claim.

Houblon des obeaux - I backed this last year in the hope of getting these conditions and now that we have them I can't leave him unbacked. He's clearly not the horse he was when second in the Hennessy but even last year his weight carrying performances in distance races were good. I hope they attempt to race prominently as this was the way he was ridden when annihilating the field in the Newbury grade 2. The recent stable form is also a huge bonus.

What's everyone else backing?
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Report bexley April 13, 2018 6:12 PM BST
Your 3 and Thunder and Roses
Report Boxman April 13, 2018 8:11 PM BST
I Just Know 45/1
Milansbar 56/1
Captain Redbeard 100/1
Report SOULDANCER April 13, 2018 8:23 PM BST
Warriors Tale 50-1
Final Nudge 50-1
Report Bindaree April 13, 2018 8:29 PM BST
Final Nudge just doesn't seem to be blessed with the necessary stamina for this sort of test, but good luck.
Report sewter lives again April 13, 2018 8:43 PM BST
As stated on other threads I strongly fancy Raz de Maree. I can only think his continued lack of support from some people is purely down to his age.

His Welsh National form for the last 2 years is outstanding. The Gold Cup winner, an acknowledged strong stayer, beat him 1.5 lengths and RDM was closing him down close home-behind him that day amongst others were Baie des Iles and Houblon des Obeaux. He should act in the conditions, has jumped round the course and will stay. The only negative I can see is that he will need luck in running given his running style.

I have Raz de Maree at between 60 and 43.

Second best is Houblon des Obeaux at 102

My book is also green for Gas Line Boy, Milansbar, Warriors Tale, Shantou Flyer and The Dutchman (small)

good luck all
Report sewter lives again April 13, 2018 8:47 PM BST
I also had a big green on Vintage Clouds who would have been my second choice-c'est la vie!
Report Bindaree April 13, 2018 8:53 PM BST
I go along with most of yours Sewter. I would throw in a couple of rogues, small e/w in Thunder and Roses and Buywise. I know Buywise probably won't stay but it acts on the going and there are glimpses i.e Cheltenham last year and Sandown this year that do give a glimmer of hope,plus it's been competitive off higher ratings in the not too distant past.
Report SOULDANCER April 13, 2018 9:37 PM BST
Bindaree, last year before Midland National I thought Final Nudge would be suited by the trip, fell 4 out there when going well.

Think Aintree will really suit him, just a question whether he takes to the fences or not.
Report Bindaree April 13, 2018 9:51 PM BST
Souldancer, I see the Midlands National slightly differently. To me it was just starting to be pushed along which was still a fair way out and I have to say it really didn't power home in either the Welsh Nat or the Kim Muir. I class stayers as horses who actually pass others in the last furlong or so.
Report SOULDANCER April 13, 2018 10:10 PM BST
Bindaree yeh you are doing it wrong, you should judge stayers  as horses who don't get passed in the last furlongs.

In the Welsh National Final Nudge was 5th approaching 2 out finished 3rd.

Glad to help.
Report Bindaree April 13, 2018 10:13 PM BST
Was it not Raz de Maree that went past it and drew right away ? That's what a stayer is !!
Report SOULDANCER April 13, 2018 10:21 PM BST
If Final Nudge had been 13lb better off at the weights that day he would have won easy.

He is tomorrow.
Report Bindaree April 13, 2018 10:25 PM BST
You're dreaming Souldancer. Unfortunately under your scenario if a horse isn't leading a furlong out it will never win. Plus it was beat an ever widening 15 lengths.
Report SOULDANCER April 13, 2018 10:29 PM BST
That's not what I said at all. Anyway, good luck Saturday I'm off to bed gotta be up early, big day.
Report SOULDANCER April 13, 2018 10:31 PM BST
I will be dreaming then.
Report Bindaree April 13, 2018 10:34 PM BST
Just to put it into perspective even the 2nd Alfie Spinner ran right away from it. To me that is not the sign of a stout stayer.
Report Bindaree April 13, 2018 10:38 PM BST
And good luck to you. This is the only forum I come on and will be off until next year(god willing). Thanks for all the postings, bit sad it's a little dead nowadays but although I may see things differently I do appreciate the different viewpoints and selections.
Report SOULDANCER April 13, 2018 10:39 PM BST
Fair enough, you made your point, we're allowed to disagree.
Report SOULDANCER April 13, 2018 10:44 PM BST
Yes I echo those sentiments and well done for trying to breath life into this forum.
Report the_don April 14, 2018 8:25 AM BST
Similar to a few above, my hopes for today

I Just Know
Regal Encore
Houblon des Obeaux

Would have got involved with Vintage Clouds if running. Can't have almost any of the favourites mainly due to weight. Good luck everyone.
Report dunlaying April 14, 2018 8:35 AM BST
I have 10 in and 3 losers already . Main bets on Childrens List and Virgilio which are not looking good at the moment .
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