Probable , Possible , Unlikely , No Chance

Would love to know how you put horses in Probables and Possibles (Baie Des Iles, The Last Samurai, Captain Redbeard, Final Nudge etc) and yet horses that have beat them out of sight you put in as unlikely !!

Unlikely.....Anything carrying 11st or over....That narrows it down a tad

Oh no I've only got 1 probable, 1 possible and 4 unlikelies

Would have to agree with that under the likely conditions.

Unlikely

Anibale Fly - he was staying on when Might Bite and Native River were both cooked . Far too short a price .
Blaklion - doesn't stay , has too much weight .
Vieux Lion Rouge - doesn't stay
Double Ross - doesn't stay .
Seeyouatmidnight - would they have sold him if he was flying at home?

Dunlaying, good logical assessment.

A revisit to this thread, post race, will be interesting !

Facts, that's why it's best not to stick your neck out too far !! lol. Best to say none of them have a chance then you're only wrong once and have a 97.5% success rate..

Probable - BAIE DES ILES WARRIORS TALE ALPHA DES OBEAUX THE LAST SAMURAI
Possible - DELUSIONSOFGRANDEUR BLAKLION PLEASANT COMPANY ANIBALE FLY MILANSBAR
              VIRGILIO VALSEUR LIDO TOTAL RECALL  REGAL ENCORE
              CHASE THE SPUD CAPTAIN REDBEARD FINAL NUDGE
Unlikely - BLESS THE WINGS SEEYOUATMIDNIGHT GAS LINE BOY PENDRA
              CHILDRENS LIST TIGER ROLL THE DUTCHMAN PERFECT CANDIDATE
              ROAD TO RICHES CARLINGFORD LOUGH RAZ DE MAREE BUYWISE
              I JUST KNOW HOUBLON DES OBEAUX SHANTOU FLYER BEEVES
              VIEUX LION ROUGE UCELLO CONTI
No Chance -MAGGIO  DOUBLE ROSS SAINT ARE TENOR NIVERNAIS LORD WINDERMERE
           THUNDER AND ROSES

At least I can't be accused of aftertiming or fencesitting

You might get a lot of stick though !! Not from me BTW because you're brave putting your opinion out front and if you're wrong, well we all know how horses can run below the level we can reasonably expect them to.

I do this each year , in 2015 Many Clouds was a probable , in 2016 Rule The World , 2017 One For Arthur , 2018 feck all
Let's see how 2019 goes


PROBABLE

LAKE VIEW LAD
MAGIC OF LIGHT
VINTAGE CLOUDS
ROCK THE KASBAH
TEA FOR TWO
SINGLEFARMPAYMENT
RAMSES DE TEILLEE

POSSIBLE

ANIBALE FLY
VALTOR
GO CONQUER
STEP BACK
WALK IN THE PARK
BALLYOPTIC
PLEASANT COMPANY
RATHVINDEN
TIGER ROLL
JURY DUTY
UP FOR REVIEW
JOE FARRELL

UNLIKELY

LIVELOVELAUGH
VIEUX LION ROUGE
VALSEUR LIDO
GENERAL PRINCIPLE
MALA BEACH
OUTLANDER
BLESS THE WINGS
FOLSOM BLUE
REGAL ENCORE
DOUNIKOS
ONE FOR ARTHUR
WARRIORS TALE
A TOI PHIL
MONBEG NOTORIOUS
NOBLE ENDEAVOUR
CAPTAIN REDBEARD
ULTRAGOLD
BLOW BY BLOW

NO CHANCE

JUST A PAR
MINELLA ROCCO
DON POLI

Close but no cigar with Magic Of Light ......at least all the first five were not in the two bottom categories.