Aintree Weather Watch

Nooooo don't do it. Don't believe everything BBC weather tells you. I use a few weather services and there are still a few mils of rain to come yet before next Thursday. Warmer yes, but pretty overcast over the next week. Today (Thurs) is a nice blip.

All heavy now removed from going.  With some good/soft on mildmay.

The Randox Health Grand National Festival
Next Race Meeting 12/04/2018
Report Date 04/04/2018 14:43:00
Official Going Mildmay and Hurdle: Soft, Good to Soft in places Grand National: Soft
GoingStick
Rails Rail on outer line - distances tbc. Rail will be moved in each day to provide fresh ground
Weather:
22mm Monday, 4mm Wednesday. Thursday - dry, bright with sunny spells 14C
Friday, Saturday and Sunday - bright and breezy, with showers
Monday onwards - mainly dry, cloudy with brighter spells odd shower 13C

Map here:-

http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/latestgoingreport.asp?course=aintree

Saturday might be very wet

Aintree Racecourse
The Randox Health Grand National Festival
Next Race Meeting 12/04/2018
Report Date 05/04/2018 15:50:00
Official Going Mildmay and Hurdle: Good to Soft, Soft in places Grand National: Soft, Good to Soft in places
GoingStick
Rails Rail on outer line - distances tbc. Rail will be moved in each day to provide fresh ground
Weather:
22mm Monday, 6mm Wednesday. Thursday - dry, bright with sunny spells 14C
Friday - cloudy with sunny spells, showers developing overnight 4mm. Windy 11C
Saturday - showers am 4mm, clearing midday. Cloudy afternoon 11C
Sunday - dry, bright and breezy 11C
Monday - dry am, poss. band of rain overnight 12C
Tuesday onwards - mainly dry, cloudy with brighter spells odd shower 13C

Good to soft-soft in places; national course: soft-gd to sft plcs

At best the ground will be soft....potentially heavy.

Surely most of the field want good ground?

pf that report was from Thursday last week and doesn't take into account Saturday's rain.

We need an up to date going stick reading to see what effect that rain has had

National course soft now

The going on the Grand National course eased to soft (from soft, good to soft in places) on Sunday, with Aintree groundstaff preparing for another week of sunshine and showers.

Although the track was dry on Sunday, Aintree received 13mm of rain on Saturday and more is expected during the week with the unsettled weather across Britain set to continue.

Clerk of the course Andrew Tulloch said on Sunday: “We’ve been dry today but the National course has eased a touch after the rain yesterday. The Mildmay course has taken the rain really well and is good to soft, soft in places, and it's soft, good to soft in places on the hurdles course.”

Conditions over the past few weeks have made preparing the courses for this week tougher than usual for Tulloch and his team, but he is looking forward to the start of the action.

“The forecast is unsettled for most of the week but there’s nothing we can do about that,” he said.

“It’s not been nice over the last three weeks or so and we’ve had to deal with that and act accordingly, but we’re all looking forward to the racing starting.”

Lovely drying day today. Very sunny, light breeze. It's going to get to about 13-14 degrees C.

Not for long

Definitely will be:  good to soft

I'm definitely taking my big coat this week

pees down tonight forecast

Rained tonight 5-7 not too hard

if the forecast is correct it will be at least good to soft

Judging by what's collected in my recycling box, there's been another decent amount of rain overnight, and it's still coming down now, albeit lightly.

thanks for the updates mary

According to the weather site I use 10mm in last 48 hours so I would expect the National going to be soft all over in the next update. Not much forecast the next couple of days but differences of opinion still as to what’s on the way for Friday/Saturday. If 14 mm does arrive on Friday it’s going to be very testing indeed.

Last 24 hours I meant sorry**

Very heavy rain all morning at Aintree and still raining steadily

There is a video on the racing post live aintree blog posted about 10 minutes ago showing it absolutely lashing down on the course.

Accuweather stating 17mm rain in the last 12 hours for Liverpool. Going to be interesting the next turftrax update

GoingStick reading lower at Aintree now than for Becher day in December when official going was heavy. Considerably lower on Mildmay (4.0 compared to 5.0). National 3.7 (was 4.0 for Becher)

From Paul Kealy on Twitter.

Turftrax has updated saying soft with heavy at canal turn. I’m a little surprised 3.7 surely that’s got to be heavy?

bexley on several occasions in the past according to their archive anything from 3.6 to 4.5 has been called heavy so you would think that

3.7  would qualify as "heavy"

Thanks Sewter, looking at other racecourse readings I’m certain they would be stating heavy for that reading. Even with dry days from now to Saturday it’s going to be testing. It could be that awful tacky ground when a bog starts to dry out. Makes it even tougher to get through.
Getting hopeful for Vintage Clouds now, bound to be a few ground related withdrawals or is that just wishful thinking? Vincent’s won’t be going I’d be confident in predicting that at least

It will be a race of the survival of the fittest... I wouldnt want anything with more than 11s to hump round there for 4 and a half miles

Accuweather forecasting rain every day even Sat afternoon.

its your lucky day DYNO-LAYER.iots no longer rfun over 4 and a half miles,

Aintree Racecourse
The Randox Health Grand National Festival
Next Race Meeting 11/04/2018 23:00:00
Report Date 10/04/2018 14:03:00

Official Going Mildmay Soft, Hurdle: Soft National Soft, Heavy Canal Turn
GoingStick Mildmay 4.2 Hurdle: 4.1 National 3.7 on Tuesday at 14:00
Rails Rail on outer line - distances tbc. Rail will be moved in each day to provide fresh ground

Weather:
13mm Saturday. 8mm last 24 hours
Tuesday - rain cleared late morning. Cloudy and overcast 12C
Wednesday - cloudy, breezy with drizzle overnight 13C
Thursday - dry with sunny spells. Poss shower overnight 12C
Friday - cloudy, poss showers through afternoon 12C
Saturday - cloudy am, showers pm 12C

3.7
similar to cheltenham, we are looking at the softest ground in years for this meeting

the most testing ground for a grand national since red marauder's year (although won't be that bad)

3.7 Wonders’s
Jeez h
Fox hunters going to be interesting Thursday

looks dry now until the race so probably going to be around good to soft by Saturday

There are a few mm’s around in showers so I’d still predict they will be calling it Soft. Whatever they call it I bet the times on Saturday will reflect testing ground conditions.

Now officially G-S , S in places but looking at the Turftrax map , it is surely Soft , G-S in places ?

According to the RP it’s soft all over on the National course today but no updated going stick readings and turftrax hasn’t been updated as far as I can see
Where are you getting your info Stellar?

There's some confusing descriptions in my view. I agree with Paul Kealy's commentary regarding the actual going stick. The current RPost description (https://www.racingpost.com/non-runners/2018-04-12) shows the national at 3.7 on the going stick and 'Soft' (I suspect this was yesterday). For the Becher chase in December (http://www.turftrax.co.uk/going_stick_archive.html) it was Heavy/soft in places with a reading of 4.0. Which suggests the current description should be Heavy (for a reading of 3.7).
Weather forecasts are contradictory as it looks like any further rain in next three days will be showers (https://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/aintree/l10-6/weather-forecast/325596) - this forecast suggests 'some showers' each days. Other's don't. My own take is that if the going should really read 'Heavy' just now at best it will be soft on saturday. We've all had so much wet weather over the winter the water table must be q high.. that I can't believe it will fundamentally 'dry out' in three days. Look for the real stayers and those who like their toes in....

History...If you look through the results when it's been heavy or v soft it invariably is less class and more plodder who wins (Rule the world 33s -2016, Red Maurauder - 33s 2001 , Little Polveoir 28/1 - 1989, Miinehoma 16s - 1994, Ben Nevis 40/1 - 1980...the exceptions were the classier and better fancied west tip in 1986 and earth summit in 1998).

Dry morning at Aintree with only a small possibility of showers later,

I would much rather take the going stick reading over the "going desciption" as an indication of the ground

the going stick is highly confusing
not surprising when you consider
the bias that can creep into the
readings a they navigate the course

Aintree Racecourse
The Randox Health Grand National Festival
Next Race Meeting 11/04/2018 23:00:00
Report Date 11/04/2018 14:32:00

Official Going Mildmay: Good to Soft, Soft in places Hurdle: Good to Soft, Soft Stand side National: Soft
GoingStick Mildmay 5.4 Hurdle 5 National 4.2 on Wednesday at 1400
Rails Rail on outer line - distances tbc. Rail will be moved in each day to provide fresh ground

Weather:
13mm Saturday, 8mm Tuesday. Dry overnight
Wednesday - cloudy, breezy with drizzle overnight 13C
Thursday - dry with sunny spells. Poss shower overnight 12C
Friday - cloudy, poss showers through afternoon 12C
Saturday - cloudy am, showers pm 12C

So it won't be the heavy old slog some are assuming?

woudnt be too sure yet paul Fridays forecast is uncertain

well the going stick reading today is 4.3

in the past Aintree readings have given 3.6/4.0 as "heavy" and 4.8/5.2 as "soft"

apparently the course is "quietly drying out" it will be fascinating to see what its like in the foxhunters

slow time in the 1st race on the mildmay course which is normally the quickest ground of the 3 tracks
looks soft ground on the mildmay
national course must be borderline heavy

Good to soft .

there's no evidence whatsoever pointing to g/s

time of the foxhunters should tell us more. though treat the time with caution as imo these amatuers not the best judges of pace. sectional times would be handy to have.

Good to soft on Saturday .

Getting worse on a dry day. Who'd have thought it?

Apr 12, 2018 -- 9:35AM, dunlaying wrote:

Good to soft on Saturday .

hmmm maybe but I cant see it

5'32" last year on good to soft

around 5'45" this year make of that what you will but didnt look too soft to me

5 49 suggests to me it’s genuine soft nowhere near heavy with only a few mm’s of rain forecast until Saturday

Did expect a far slower time to be honest...

Disney said very soft down far side and that confirms turftrax saying canal turn is heavy

Been looking forward to this race for months with a specific few horses in mind. With Vintage Clouds not running and the ground likely to be fair to most come Saturday I’m honestly struggling to find a bet

2016 was a very similar time (5'47") on good to soft, soft in places

I still think Raz de Maree will run a big race

Might save my money for Scotland, Missed Approach and Vintage Clouds were the 2 stayers with light weights I wanted in at Aintree. They won’t have light weights at Ayr mind you

Sewter, according to Racingpost results it was soft in 2016.

national course looked soft at worst imo, although was obviously virgin ground for the foxhunters, not raced on since december

Still slowest time for about 10 years.

most years its good or g/s

looks like this evening's forecast rain is going to miss Aintree

We are forecast heavy rain tonight so it will be at least soft ground if it is correct.

By tonight I mean early tomorrow morning, forecast heavy rain for 4 hours.

It forecasting 6 hours of heavy rain now 4am-10am 80-90% chance. Been checking every hour or so and it seems different every time.  But like you say if it hits then all talk of g/s will be gone.

Rain should be stopping by 10 am but looks like they will have had maybe 4 or 5 mms. They have officially gone to soft with heavy patches on the canal turn again just now.

Just listened to Radio Wales talking to Bowen snr and he reckoned James had the choice between RazDM and Shantou Flyer.

Same report said that it was hammering down and was likely to be heavy in ground description.

The unasked question was would James have made the same decision if he knew it was going to be "heavy"

If thats true then its a very brave desicion to desert a horse whose given him his biggest win. For what its worth i think he chosen bang WRONG but highsight a wonderful thing re ground and i wish him all the best.

yes a massive decision for a 17 year old starting his career

Lucy from the Veraswami put us away with her talk of 1mm .

ATR racing news just said no change in going strange given that theyve had about 10mm overnight

Minella Roco out due to ground

So who am i looking at as mudlarks and one paced plodders, got two kids and the miss looking for their annual punt, any input appreciated thx.

rained all night just stopped soft heavy in places according to ruk

Just looking for a couple of plodders who will jump round and might pick up a bit of place money, come on people dont be shy my kids are relying on you.

Houseofpain, Milansbar would be my safest option

Apr 13, 2018 -- 6:20AM, bexley wrote:

Houseofpain, Milansbar would be my safest option

That will do bex for one of the kids, just one more someone.

How about Raz de Maree?

That will do budd, thanks both of you.

Good luck mate !!!

Both 33/1 With hills 2 x £2.50 e/w, you too g/l.

dunlaying • April 12, 2018 3:35 PM BST
Good to soft on Saturday .

looking at the 1st race today (hurdles track) g/s is a million, looks soft bordering heavy on the hurdles track

Warrior ? Likes the ground