Grand National
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Doubtful runners (some more doubtful than others) - have I missed any or any glaring mistakes?
1.Valseur Lido (too much weight for Gigginstown)
2.Alpha Des obeaux (friendless on exchanges)
3.Cause of causes (injured?)
4.Tenor Nivernais (likely target 3m handicap?)
5.Go Conquer (Topham?)
6. Belshill (Irish Nash)
7.Rathvinden (friendless on exchanges)
8.Acapella Bourgeois (Irish Nash)
9.A Genie In Abottle (Irish Nash)
10.Pleasant Company (Irish Nash)
11.Gas Line Boy (Topham)
12.Virgilio (NR on saturday - injured?)
13.Childrens List (Irish Nash)
14.Houblon Des Obeaux (ran terribly today)
15.Bless The Wings (Irish Nash)
16.Thunder And Roses (Irish Nash)
17.Road To Riches (Irish Nash)
18.Walk In The Mill (friendless on exchanges)
19.Wounded Warrior (ran terribly today)
20.Vic De Touzaine (form PPP)
21.General Principle (Irish Nash)
22.Bonny Kate (Irish Nash)
1.Valseur Lido (too much weight for Gigginstown)
2.Alpha Des obeaux (friendless on exchanges)
3.Cause of causes (injured?)
4.Tenor Nivernais (likely target 3m handicap?)
5.Go Conquer (Topham?)
6. Belshill (Irish Nash)
7.Rathvinden (friendless on exchanges)
8.Acapella Bourgeois (Irish Nash)
9.A Genie In Abottle (Irish Nash)
10.Pleasant Company (Irish Nash)
11.Gas Line Boy (Topham)
12.Virgilio (NR on saturday - injured?)
13.Childrens List (Irish Nash)
14.Houblon Des Obeaux (ran terribly today)
15.Bless The Wings (Irish Nash)
16.Thunder And Roses (Irish Nash)
17.Road To Riches (Irish Nash)
18.Walk In The Mill (friendless on exchanges)
19.Wounded Warrior (ran terribly today)
20.Vic De Touzaine (form PPP)
21.General Principle (Irish Nash)
22.Bonny Kate (Irish Nash)
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22 doubtful out of 73......be lucky to get 40 at this rate.
Would love to see Minella Daddy get in. Will be a player on good ground. Bowen knows what he is doing round Aintree.
Plenty of 1000s available the other day.
Plenty of 1000s available the other day.
Virgilio not running in the 3m handicap on National day?
They did indicate a few weeks ago that Vicente would go to Ayr as Meatloaf says.
So what do we think will be the cut off point? Several likely to go to the Irish national
I see 6 possibly 7 defectors which would make 48 a reserve . At the moment that is Road To Riches .
...and Cause of Causes disappearing from firms lists, and at the bottom of the market on here.
looking at the forecast Bindaree they wont need to water
That will certainly narrow it down. Have several bigger priced ones that might have good chances of getting placed but struggling to find something that I feel will have a good chance of winning. Nothing seems bomb proof. They seem either to have too much weight, are inconsistent, not sure they will stay and then of course the going. They may win but personally I don't think any of the first five or so in the betting are good value.
Vicente going for Scottish National instead of aintree
Revised list of almost certain non runners:
- Cause of Causes 99% out
- Vicente - Scottish Nash
- Belshill - Irish Nash
- Bless The Wings - Irish Nash
- Thunder and Roses - Irish Nash
- Vic De Touzaine - Non runner
- General Principle - Irish Nash
Likely non runners:
- Buywise
- Pendra
- Go Conquer
- Acapella Bourgeois
- Cause of Causes 99% out
- Vicente - Scottish Nash
- Belshill - Irish Nash
- Bless The Wings - Irish Nash
- Thunder and Roses - Irish Nash
- Vic De Touzaine - Non runner
- General Principle - Irish Nash
Likely non runners:
- Buywise
- Pendra
- Go Conquer
- Acapella Bourgeois
Do you know Buywise is unlikely to run or just a hunch ? I was thinking of it as a potential place horse. I know plenty will disagree and I wouldn't have thought of it myself a couple of years ago but I do have some reasoning behind the potential madness.
Buywise drifted alarmingly - might be something of nothing.
One of the primary reasons I was prepared to give it some thought was the fact that Leighton Aspell had seemed to revitalise it somewhat. Just read today that he is injured and out for 6 weeks, Aspell that is.
Mullins said he will not race Bellshill in the Grand National at Aintree a week on Saturday but will instead rely on Total Recall, Pleasant Company and Children’s List. He does not plan to run his other entrants, Rathvinden and Acapella Bourgeois.
Win or lose (Bless The Wings) just shows how Phil Smith has destroyed the race. This horse hasn't finished within 14 lengths of winning over conventional courses in the past 2 years despite running off a low rating !! Favourtism ?
Nicholls is good at letting people know early and accurately....
Pity Gigginstown can't let people know which of their multitude of entries are going to run. Or are they going to run everything just to make sure there's not much competition for them to overcome. How can anyone seriously have an ante-post bet on the race anymore ?
Bindaree I think that is exactly why Gigginstown have multiple entries
I think the first reserve could be 51 , at present that is Walk In The Mill .
52 Vintage Clouds . Quite likely to get in I believe . But that is nothing more than opinion .
You usually get an unfounded scare every year - Chris Cook has tweated that Kim Bailey says the horse is fine...
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2018/apr/06/grand-national-hope-a-genie-in...
Meat Loaf
I think that these drifts could be because the market is very quiet ahead of the Confirmations on Monday.
There has been very little activity on either TLS or GP. For example about £50 has been traded today on TLS at prices between 22 and 25 - nothing else.
The huge drift on Gold Present yesterday was also based on minimal activity.
I think that these drifts could be because the market is very quiet ahead of the Confirmations on Monday.
There has been very little activity on either TLS or GP. For example about £50 has been traded today on TLS at prices between 22 and 25 - nothing else.
The huge drift on Gold Present yesterday was also based on minimal activity.
Looks like late deision on Vicente (from PN blog - 9th April)
All roads lead to Aintree this week. Unfortunately the ground there is already soft so our running plans will depend on how much more rain falls at the track over the next few days. We will confirm Vicente and Warriors Tale on Monday for the Grand National. Both schooled really well over some practice Aintree fences at David Pipe’s on Sunday along with Monsieur Gibraltar who runs in the Foxhunters’ for Rose Loxton. We will make a decision about Vicente’s participation ahead of declaration time on Thursday. If we consider conditions are too soft for him then we will keep him back for his hat-trick bid in the Scottish National at Ayr the following Saturday.
All roads lead to Aintree this week. Unfortunately the ground there is already soft so our running plans will depend on how much more rain falls at the track over the next few days. We will confirm Vicente and Warriors Tale on Monday for the Grand National. Both schooled really well over some practice Aintree fences at David Pipe’s on Sunday along with Monsieur Gibraltar who runs in the Foxhunters’ for Rose Loxton. We will make a decision about Vicente’s participation ahead of declaration time on Thursday. If we consider conditions are too soft for him then we will keep him back for his hat-trick bid in the Scottish National at Ayr the following Saturday.
I think there are three still to fall out and that would leave Walk In The Mill as first reserve .
Dunlaying, I believe there would have to be a ballot between Vintage and Walk if one of them could run.
Actually Binderee, I think the chief handicapper has the choice.
I read today that there is a ballot unless either horse has had it's rating raised or decreased since the weights came out. That's how it used to be so assuming that's correct unless someone knows it's been changed and what I read is incorrect.
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