Grand National

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20 Mar 16 21:45
Date Joined: 22 Jul 08
| Topic/replies: 1,629 | Blogger: jasey's blog
Can't find any negatives about this horse after coming back to life in the Ultima
Expecting a big run.
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Report TWODOGGS March 21, 2016 9:01 AM GMT
Couldn't agree more, he could be chucked in here of 153 if he takes to the fences (which admittedly is always a concern and especially for a horse who isn't the biggest). He beat DC 10 lengths 2 years back and was only 3 lengths back from SVC last year. His spring form is pretty much mustard. There is alot to like
Report sixtwosix March 21, 2016 7:47 PM GMT
hot and cold doesn't begin to describe this one . Terrific performance at the festival, yet still recollect an awful round of jumping over the Mildmay course.
Report jasey March 22, 2016 7:57 PM GMT
Yeah he can put in a bad round but i think his style will be suited to the GN course.
Sunnyhillboy for the same trainer ran like a drain up until the festival then ran a mighty race in the GN.
Report boy wonder 07 March 24, 2016 2:04 PM GMT
had to bet him at 16/1 nr no bet as he is the best handicapped in the race plus the good run in Cheltenham
Report ZenMaster March 24, 2016 9:09 PM GMT
Holywell seems like a complicated horse to judge if he is to be on song or not but there seems to be a connection between him running well and wearing his blinkers on decent ground.

I actually don't think he is that hard to weigh up, connections have been rather clever again, getting one so well handicapped.
Report runandskip March 24, 2016 10:33 PM GMT
Has to be on everyones shortlist
His Cheltenham/Aintree form over the years is tremendous
and how Jonjo has got this Hcap mark especially based on Coneygree's GC is a masterstroke
Report Roger The Butler March 25, 2016 12:10 AM GMT
I'm in.

Looked him up expecting to see him off around 11-6, couldn't believe he is off 10-12.

Has been to Cheltenham then Aintree the last three years:

1st at Cheltenham (Pertemps Final)
2nd at Aintree (G1 Liverpool Hurdle)

1st at Cheltenham (G3 handicap chase)
1st at Aintree (G1 Mildmay novices chase)

4th at Cheltenham (G1 Gold Cup)
3rd at Aintree (G1 Betfred Bowl)

2nd at Cheltenham (G3 handicap chase off top weight)

Unbelievable spring record at the big festivals. My question mark would be if his jumping is fluent enough to be efficient and get into a nice rhythm over the national fences as I've never had him down as a really good jumper, but watched last week's race back and thought he was decent enough.

Definitely playing this one.
Report stevo1 March 25, 2016 6:13 AM GMT
Yes agree with most of that,defo well handicapped and ran best race lto, one worry would be soft ground, but at 16s worth ew punt.
Report stevo1 March 25, 2016 6:14 AM GMT
Ran best race this season lto,after apalling run time before.
Report Facts March 25, 2016 8:47 AM GMT
boy wonder 07    24 Mar 16 14:04 
had to bet him at 16/1 nr no bet as he is the best handicapped in the race plus the good run in Cheltenham

Isn't The Last Samuri the best handicapped ?
Report jasey March 25, 2016 10:40 AM GMT
Whats last Samuri new rating?
Cause of Causes is 152 so he's pretty well in if getting a run.
Report ZenMaster March 25, 2016 11:29 AM GMT
The Last Samuri updated OR is 161
In the GN he runs off 149

12lb well in
Report Facts March 25, 2016 11:42 AM GMT
Holywell - 4lbs
Cause of Causes 10 lbs well in.
Report GoldCupWinner March 26, 2016 1:20 PM GMT
I don't believe the last samurai is a 161 horse, druids nephew was probably still undercooked and the third was well beaten at Cheltenham. Yes he has a great chance as he looks like he stays, jumps well and is in form but IMO he is not 12lb well in. If you agree with the handicapper that he is 12lb well in he has to be a maximum bet. I really like holywell granted a clear found. His form last season's gold cup reads excellently in the context of this race. I backed him at Cheltenham and feel he ran into a super handicapped horse. There was a long way back to the third and he has previous form which would easy put him into the mid 160's without any doubt.
Report Facts March 26, 2016 2:19 PM GMT
I feel really confident that TLS has a fantastic chance of winning.Happy
Report GoldCupWinner March 26, 2016 2:57 PM GMT
I can't really argue against the horse I just doubt that he's the full 12lb well in but he will be well in to some extent and has to go close.
Report ZenMaster March 26, 2016 4:22 PM GMT
I also doubt that The Last Samuri is a 161 horse on what we have seen but i think he could be over 4 miles 2f 74 yards, although still on the inexperienced side he looks every inch a GN horse.
Report Somerset Sam April 9, 2016 8:54 AM BST
I cant help but think that if he takes to the fences then Holywell could very well be this years winner. A touch of class about him, nobody better than Jonjo in training staying chasers and he also had a winner yesterday.

Sure he's got his quirks (the horse, not Jonjo) but if Richie McLernon can get him settled and into a rhythm he could be chucked in. You'd hope he'd be no worse than midfield from the off. If he got too far back early on, you fear he'd throw the towel in.

He ran a cracking trial after been given a small break and his CV reads very well in the context of the race (beat Don Cossack and Many Clouds as a novice over the Mildmay course) and was a staying on 4th in last years Gold Cup. He tended to be a bit novicey in his younger days but still hoping for a huge run off 153 and a nice racing weight.
Report TimmyRiggins April 9, 2016 9:43 AM BST
Backed him before Xmas, so hope you're right, Sam.

Good luck, gents.
Report Ibrahima Sonko April 9, 2016 12:45 PM BST
I would be a backer on good ground.
Report Stormez2000 April 9, 2016 2:14 PM BST
I really don't think he's as ground dependant as people say. Last year's Gold Cup was on Soft and he stayed on very well having been on/off the bridle from the top of the hill. Have rewatched last years Bowl and a few other races this morning and he really is a stayer and a battler and I'm pretty sure he'll get the trip on todays ground. Just wish I had taken the 120s (after he was pulled up before Cheltenham) and 70s (just before the weights) on here and not saved all my cash for Cheltenham!

I've piled in today and had the winner in 04, 08 and 12 so hoping the sequence continues!

Good luck all (and fill your boots on Holywell)
Report olddesperado April 9, 2016 6:37 PM BST
mclernon looked apprenhesive at both fences and paid the price.

When i seen him out wide at the back i knew he was minding himself and hoping to  hunt around out of trouble.

Winners now are mainly prominently ridden though.

I expected a big run but jockey was my main concern. Sad
Report IrisDeBalme April 10, 2016 9:15 PM BST
I think it was so bizarre he was so short... despite having form on soft ground... was never gonna win a National on that ground - he needed good to soft to even stand a chance...
Report Eeternaloptimist April 10, 2016 10:11 PM BST
I backed both him and Silvianaco Conti on the Friday in the hope the rain stayed away. I couldn't believe that I could cash out for a small profit not only after the downpour overnight but then after the rain during the afternoon.
Report jasey April 11, 2016 1:02 PM BST
Well that was a result nobody wants didn't even get a run for our money,I think writing was on the wall after the first fence.
My goodness 11/1 only just looking at SPs that is unreal,i went out to watch it so was well oiled by the time the race started didn't even know the ground was heavy.
I still have nightmares about Sunnyhillboy so Richie will never be my fav jockey anyway.
Holywell can have another stab next year.
Report Roger The Butler April 11, 2016 8:06 PM BST
Yeah as soon as he fluffed the first I had a feeling it wasn't just a one off error. On the way to the second you could almost sense him thinking 'what the f*ck is this?' about the race.

Ground definitely went against him but in the end it was irrelevant. Had 16s and with all the rain I thought he would drift, but for some reason people kept backing him. Mad.
Report sixtwosix April 11, 2016 8:45 PM BST
I couldn't get his blundering performance on the Mildmay out of my head .......and even without that had zip chance when the rain came down.
Report Ibrahima Sonko April 11, 2016 11:10 PM BST
I always put his often scrabby jumping down to the yard because when the money was down he jumped like stag, hard horse to work out.
Report ZenMaster April 12, 2016 9:30 AM BST
He is actually an easy horse to work out.

Blinkers on ground no worse than good/soft.

In the Mildmay in 2014 he blundered his way through the race, the blinkers were OFF.
The reason why Jonjo takes the blinkers off from time to time is were the murky river runs deep.
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