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This year I'm predicting No. 83- Ziga Boy will be our 40th runner. Who do you think?
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I have backed horses with 10-01 so reckon it will be Present View on 10-02. Sods Law
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I think the current 10-02s or 10-01s will be where it stops and as there's a few of them the handicap marks at the time (which decide the order) will be crucial imo.
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Spring Heeled will be the last one in, making it a compressed handicap.
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I think you could be close there. Bishops Road is my guess. I hope I am wrong.
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pineau du re
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G1. Why do you think the number will be as high on the list as 56 that misses out?
That would be a massive turnaround from previous years.... 68 on the list is the highest up there not to get in in the last 15 years. |
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You may need to be in the top 60-65 of the original list to get in this year. Doesn't look to be many non runners to me.
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I agree and hope our local horse highland lodge makes it at 65 but its going to be touch and go I think he may be number 40
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Think Cause Of Causes will be the last to scramble in now.
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This has caught a few on the hop. Barring the obvious ones aren't we almost looking at decs already? Not going to go anywhere near as low as I and many others thought
Possible this will be the shape of things to come as a) the prize money is now monumentally attractive and b) because of that it costs a fair amount to enter and stay in through various stages |
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Yep agreed there won't be many horses coming out. Horses like Cause of Causes have no chance of getting in.
Bishops Road may scrape in if lucky. |
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I have backed Bishops Road . I am far from confident of getting a run . Everybody tells me that he must get in but I cannot see where the eight NRs are.
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im on BR too lets hope he gets in
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He might not have the chance to get in as he is entered in The Topham.
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Bishops Road will only be entered in the Topham just in case he doesn't get in national.
Possible non runners imo. Carlingford Lough. Not heard this is definitely the target, though would seem like a horse who would get the trip.Pulled out of race late last year.Mcmanus does like running horses in this though. Ballynagour. A fragile sort who has been out of form. Every chance he doesn't take up his entry. O'Faolains Boy. Think he will only run if the romford pele doesn't personally. Gilgamboa. Surely will have other options over shorter. Has not shown any sign of staying this trip so far.Caveat that owner loves having runners. Turban. If we are to believe the trainer!?! his target is the Topham. Unlikely to run i'd suggest. Living Next Door. Declared for Irish National. From Turban down to Spring Heeled(excluding Living Next Door) it is hard to see any withdrawing out of choice. However, you would expect 2 horses to get injured between now and the race. Hope its not one i've backed though. My best guess is now that Bishops Road will be last one in. |
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hope your right penguin
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Really want Highland Lodge to get in - at 52 does anyone think he has a squeak?
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Roger
I'd say about 60% chance - but this is a strange year (mind you, I say that every year!) |
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Just can't see Highland Lodge getting in and he would have to draw lots with PDR.I think last year only 6 or 7 came out after Easter so Bishops Road-Knock House would be my guess.
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Yes, I think it is looking bleak for him getting a run. Pity as he would have been a very lively outsider at 50s and ticked every stat going except for a recent run.
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Will be very unfortunate if Alvarado ,twice placed ,and his jockey going for a staggering 8th placed ride for the same owners doesn't get a run ...
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On my knees for Bishops Road to get in too. Going to be really tight. Racing Post has him listed below Knock House but I reckon he's above him as they're on the same weight which should be ordered by current highest O/R.
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Highland Lodge is not entered for The Topham . That would suggest to me that connections are confident of getting in as the horse would be 6 better off in the shorter race.
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I'd be quite surprised if Highland Lodge gets in looking at the list myself.
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ballycasey in the topham though?
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Hard to know Tyson. Personally I havent seen anything to suggest he could stay the National trip, but they felt he was worth a go last year and he fell so early they might want to try again.
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I would be amazed if he got in since Perfect Candidate/ Maggio should leapfrog Pineau De Re, Alvorado and Highland Lodge.
If I have interpreted the rules correctly. |
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There is some doubt about that.^
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O'Faolains Boy likely to have another target with RP the preferred National horse
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Do I get my Pineau dosh back on here if it is a NR? Bit of a miscalculation by some trainers I think with loads you'd ordinarily expect to get in oot and no where to go. Still that's quality and compression and way of the world because Chelters in many respects exactly same. No room for error or chance.
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You get your money back Liberator if it is balloted out, i.e. if it is declared to run but the 40 places are already filled.
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all this about horses not getting in, if owners or trainers allowed them to run more frequently and achieve a higher rating then it wouldn't be a problem. People must know the game by now if your going to be 60/70 in the list you are unlikely to figure, as such you need to run the horse in the hope of getting its rating up rather than play cat and mouse and hope to sneak in number 40. Personally i could only see a max 10 coming out which would take us down to whatever is currently 50.
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It would be nice if the race had a 4 or 5lb OPTIONAL penalty system. That way the Silvianacos and Many Clouds of this world can be campaigned freely as they would decline the kind offer of a penalty should they win, while yer Bishops Roads and Cause Of Causes would say thanks very much and move up the order, allowing in-form horses to leapfrog their possibly out-of-form, stale and stagnant contemporaries.
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My thoughts on what the actual order is outside the top 40. Why the RP and others can't get this sorted I don't know, it's clearly going to play a big part:
41st Saint Are 42nd Ballot between Pendra and Spring Heeled 44th Vieux Lion Rouge 45th Katkeau 46th Ballot between Home Farm and The Romford Pele 48th Bishops Road 49th Knock House 50th Present View 51st Perfect Candidate 52nd Maggio 53rd Ballot between Pineau De Re and Highland Lodge 55th Alvarado |
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present view will get in..at least..
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Very good idea headmaster.
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Headmaster - I like the idea of the weights being movable. The sheer size of the national's prize pot distorts the whole season for these horses and some flexibility (maybe option of Feb weight or current weight?) would help a lot.
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It certainly makes you think carefully when you see 117.5% on the right hand side. I can't remember it
ever being that high before. |