Grand National
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Rocky Creek
Rocky Creek
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Replies: 65
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IMO the most compelling evidence in his favour is the evidence of your eyes. His last run was stunning. Ordinarily I wouldn't fancy a horse that appeared a non-stayer previously but I think he may well have been transformed since then.
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RC will run a cracker without winning in my view . should be bang there at the last again but i just see him been outstayed by stronger finishers .
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RC will run a cracker without winning in my view . should be bang there at the last again but i just see him been outstayed by stronger finishers .
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Looked the winner jumping the 3rd last ,but so many do and do not see out the last part of the race ,Big Fella Thanks running today in the FoxHunter ,twice was running all over the field and did not win.
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Weakening last year may have been down to fitness, ringworm and breathing issues.
If it was purely genetic stamina issues then he won`t be winning this year either, but you need to take into account everything. |
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al co
godsmejudge |
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Pricewise has been ear wigging this thread.
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The biggest disappointment of the race compared to expected performance , was in trouble an awful long way out.
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He didn`t seem to be enjoying it at all, Sam was having to get after him too early on for stamina to even be considered. Perhaps he remembered what a grind it was last year and was not interested this time round.
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If so perhaps my theory that you need to win it at your first completion wasn't so stupid after all?
(Note: another first time winner this year with plenty of previous runners such as Rocky Creek not making progress). |
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Alvarado ran another very good race, as did Monbeg Dude
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They did. Horses come back year after year and run good races but almost exclusively their best chance is their first one.
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Nobody said your theory was stupid Roger, it`s just that horses do win coming back for another attempt.
By the way it is not your theory. It is a stat. Alvarado & Monbeg Dude where both hampered. My theory is that if you are hampered that it almost always exclusively hampers your best chance of winning. |
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Alvarado and Monbeg got hampered because of their running style
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Druids is only horse I can take out this race but next year we could see some seriously classy horses now a virtual top weight has won.
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Hardly a 'new idea' back in the day. 1970+ .winner could be readily short listed from top 6 in the weights.
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They should enter Coneygree in for next years race. It would certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons.
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quite an amazing performance . carried more weight to victory than every winner since RED RUM carried 12 stone in 1974 . And as trainer said he thought this was a year too early for the grand national as he was only 8 year old and only ran on the owners wishes he can only improve . He badly under performed in the gold cup and looking at trainers interview after the race i am pretty sure he expected to win gold cup . Be interesting to see what he will be aimed at next year GOLD CUP or Grand National as next year we are back to normal and 3 week gap between the two . the handicapper will have to give him 12 stone next year but maybe he can be another Red Rum as he will be a more stronger horse . For sure he will be first horse since Bindaree to win a race after winning a Grand National .
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AG, I think Bradstock will be hesitant to enter any horse in The National, I'm sure he was soured on the race after what happened to Do Rightly in 98. Probably why they've never considered Carruthers for it.
Hope I'm wrong though, would be great to see him go round there. |
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You will be right Fabulous, but we know Coneygree has Grand National stamped all over him. However here are some quotes from Sara Bradstock after the Do Rightly death.##
A tearful Sara Bradstock, the trainer's wife, said: "No-one has slept much here. We have lost a very, very good friend. It is a tragedy. "The only relief is that he probably didn't know anything about it. He just jumped a bit carefully and landed on his head and died. "It knocks everyone for six. It would take a lot for us to run another horse in the National, but we have got to go on." |
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Thanks for that AG, glad I wasn't imagining things. Well that's encouraging anyway, you're right, he'd be some sight round there, and you never know after that weight carried by Many Clouds.
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The weight ceiling is relative of course though Fabulous. Coneygree would possibly have an OR of lets say 178 by then if he wins the Hennessy or the Gold Cup form is further franked. Perhaps Smithy would let him in with 172, but Many Clouds won off a mere 160.
Coneygree would be giving 20lb to 150 horses. There would be some very good staying chasers on 10st although would be some spectacle though. |
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Coneygree would be given a lower mark than his official one.
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It would still result in many horses out of the handicap
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I pointed that out Jasey.
Coneygree maybe rated 178+ by the time the weights come out for the GN. The Gold Cup maybe of a higher standard than the OH gave it credit for. A few old dogs on here believe 172 is too low. If he wins the Hennessy off 172 in Nov then what will his OR mark be before the OH can jiggle it for his GN weight. |
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I agree that Many Clouds put up one of the best performances for many years and I hope that he comes back as good next year. However, the statement "he can only improve" is often the kiss of death for young horses that win big races. Just consider Sprinter Sacre after his QM win, Long Run after his Gold Cup, More of That after the World Hurdle, Bobsworth after his Gold Cup, Taquin du Seuil, Simonsig after the Arkle, the list is sadly a long one. Very few horses back up a stellar season with another one.
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