Rocky Creek

Good to see you are still posting. Hope that  halo isn't slippingYou are exactly right in what  you say about Hedgehunter. It took a weary looking fall at the last having made much of the running(incidently it was also an 8yo then)in 2004. He came back a year later, also a year stronger, was ridden slightly more conservatively, only taking up the running after Beechers 2nd time around(after Clan Royal was carried out by a loose horse)and the rest is history.

I am a backer but every chance he will have to lump around a big weight,more weight he gets the more his chances of winning diminish.

They can do that Jasey if they are ahead of the handicapper and he looks a big strong type to me,  and will be stronger than last year.

Hello fact find, how are you keeping sir? Good to see you back.

Hedgehunter was a far better class of horse and better stayer than Rocky creek will ever be . Hedgehunter was probably  beaten in the 2004 National when falling at the last when a close third but he was staying the trip no problem . Hedgehunter won a Grand National trial aged just 7 at Punchestown in 2003 over 3 and a half miles in heavy ground , made all the running and won unchallenged  . Rocky creek should be in contention at the last but his stamina will go by the elbow , just like Seabass in 2012 .

Just a couple of things barry.

Hedgehunter had never won a Class 1 Chase before winning the Grand National - Rocky Creek has and also won a Novice Class 1 Chase.
According to ratings Rocky Creek is already as good as Hedgehunter ever was.
When Hedgehunter won that Grand National trial at Punchestown he was receiving 7lb of a horse rated just 115. Could Rocky Creek have beaten a 115 rated Chaser in this race?  Rocky Creek was as a 7 year old who was a 150 rated Chaser.

You may be right about stamina but a better class of horse etc? Nah.

so do you think Rocky Creek good enough be going for the cheltenham gold cup in next couple of years . Hedgehunter ran a good 2nd in it

Rocky is rated on a par with Holywell barry. He ran ok.

In the War Of Attrition Gold Cup you have a Forget The Past 7L behind. Not a vintage race. It`s all relative. So yes Rocky Creek would deserve his place in the Gold Cup on his rating.

well i doubt Holywell will ever come close to winning a gold cup . i could see it been a grand national horse next year though .

Good news that MC is running,.Rockys weight can only go up a llb now.

surely rocky wil have no stamina problems?

He was 8/1 when pulled up behind Many Clouds in a decent Hennessey, who is 25/1 NRNB 5 places ew.Yes it has too much weight and it needs soft ground but it would be my only bet in the race.

11 lb turnaround for Rocky though Homer + Rocky is now rated 9 lb higher than his GN mark. So in effect 20lb is the difference since that day. Rocky hated the ground that day. Djakadam also ran a stinker.

Rocky trained for the GN.

I'd wait until nearer the time if you haven't backed the horse yet.... could well be soft ground imo which would be a negative to his chances and I cant see him shortening that much from now until the day before.

We have had lots and lots of rain the past 4 or 5 days and there is plenty more forecast for the next week.

The strange thing is CCM his top figure is on soft ground(Newbury ground is still a ?)Yes his stamina bubble popped last year on good/soft so how could he get the trip better on soft ground this year around? well if you take last years Grand National as his level then he should empty even sooner.

BUT..
He has had the wind operation
Seems stronger and Nicholls senses a different horse.
He could be a stone+ better than last season and we haven`t even seen him at peak yet.

Yes fair point AG.

Suspect he will do a Big Fella Thanks - run a belter at a young age in the National but then instead of progressing run to similar level again getting no closer to winning.

If you're not good enough to win the National at your first completion, you've missed your chance. State Of Play, Big Fella, Oscar Time, all admirable horses running crackers again and again, but not getting any nearer. Virtually every year it's a debutant that wins.

Virtually every year it's a debutant that wins. - Just not true.

5/14 success for those returning since 2001

Red Marauder (yes, yes )
Amberleigh House
Hedgehunter - beaten when fell at the last
Silver Birch - fell - would he have won?
Mon Mome

Sorry, did say if you are not good enough to win at your first completion - so you can take Red Marauder, Hedgehunter and Silver Birch off your list and stick them back on mine as they won on their first completions. Amberleigh House and Mon Mome the only two for many years to have completed and then come back to win another time. That's not a great strike rate.

Oh come on Rodger, Hedgehunter was out of it when he fell at the last.
I will however take Red Marauder off my list though. As his win was N/A in my eyes.
But i want to keep Silver Birch as he would have been unlikely to win.

BFT was 5 or so llbs higher than his first run,unlike RC who is 2 llbs better off.With the quality of this race now it is harder to hide a horse from the handicapper.We see Irish horses running off higher marks than in Ireland and a number of horses needing to win just to get into the race.
Over the last few years best handicapped horses (well in)have ran very well,SHB all but won and BK last year was 9llb well in.3 of the last 8 winners were officially 5 llb well in,all this points to a huge run from Rocky.

Just because RC didn't run strongly to the line last year doesn't mean he didn't stay the trip. He did however run well enough to suggest that if he is in better nick this year then he is a massive player. I will take my chances and see what happens at the elbow.

So if Rocky had have fallen two out last year it would have made him a more likely winner this year.

Is that a question or a statement?

Agree, he is rated 9lb higher on his new OR and Nicholls will not have had him to peak yet. So really he could be even better than 163, and gets in on 154. He could be a stone in. Could it have been a breathing issue rather than his genetic stamina levels giving way?

Either way a combination of the breathing op, maturity from 8-9, improvement and a more conserving ride can do it for me.

Both

It would obviously appear to give him a better chance if he had fallen 2 out because we wouldn't have seen him tire on the run in which means he still has the stamina issue to prove.

Rocky Creek seems as close as you can get in this race to an EW bet to nothing.  Proved last year he can handle the course and finished 5th, 2lb lower, wind op looks to have improved him and trained specifically for the race.

heres hoping shockster    but i havent backed the winner of it since west tip!!

As long as its not testing he s the most confidant Ive been about any horse going into the National since Hedgehunter

I have been toying with rocky creek for a while now they only reason i can come up with not to back him is he seemed not to stay last year, the breathing op alone seems to have helped him finishing of his races but when you consider last years prep for this race involved him missing the gold cup because he had ring worm that would make me think he failed last year because of lack of fitness not stamina (?)

Won't be backing RC after backing him last year, his stamina gave out last year and of course its possible that a year older and year stronger could apply, at his current odds I'd want that stamina issue to be guaranteed.

`Different horse` is what has been repeatedly used by connections.

As the poster `Timeform` mentions the prep for last years race included getting over ringworm. Was it his fitness that gave way last year? perhaps he needed the run, he had not run since 25th January and had problems in his build up. Compare that to this year and it`s a completely different ball game. Add onto that the breathing op, the fact that he is already rated 9lb higher than last season and has not hit peak form in any of his races this season. Yet he runs off 154.

He could be the best handicapped horse in the race, despite carrying 11st 4lb.

rocky greeks wind operation .. didnt party politics have the same operation one year and won the national .. they do seem to come good after the op .. heads up for me .

AG. Wouldn't read too much into what connections are saying about the horse tbh. They have plenty of previous with talking up horses. Sil Conti was going to win the GC doing handsprings if you listened to PN!

And Zarkandar was a completely different horse this year as well...

Not against the horse though.... backed him at 10's when it started to dry up.

Yep you right about stable excuses galore.

AG. Wouldn't read too much into what connections are saying about the horse tbh.

I think that you need to look into it a bit further.
A. The breathing OP
B. The official handicapper now agrees as well.
C. He has been trained for the race.

Zarkandar? Not seen the quotes you refer to CCM, but what would have brought on improvement in this fellow? Are you sure PFN didn`t just say he thought the horse was more streetwise and in better form? Hardly him saying the horse was now a much better horse than at any other stage in his career.

It seems to be the case with Rocky Creek that Nicholls knows he has horse that is stronger, breathing improved and finishing his races better.

Will find out Saturday,so many horses have breathing ops these days, but dont normally here of it till after they have won/showed improved form.

IMO the most compelling evidence in his favour is the evidence of your eyes. His last run was stunning.  Ordinarily I wouldn't fancy a horse that appeared a non-stayer previously but I think he may well have been transformed since then.

RC will run a cracker without winning in my view . should be bang there at the last again but i just see him been outstayed by stronger finishers .

RC will run a cracker without winning in my view . should be bang there at the last again but i just see him been outstayed by stronger finishers .

Looked the winner jumping the 3rd last  ,but so many do and do not see out the last part of the race ,Big Fella Thanks running today in the FoxHunter ,twice was running all over the field and did not win.

Weakening last year may have been down to fitness, ringworm and breathing issues.
If it was purely genetic stamina issues then he won`t be winning this year either, but you need to take into account everything.

al co

godsmejudge

Pricewise has been ear wigging this thread.

The biggest disappointment of the race compared to expected performance , was in trouble an awful long way out.

He didn`t seem to be enjoying it at all, Sam was having to get after him too early on for stamina to even be considered. Perhaps he remembered what a grind it was last year and was not interested this time round.

If so perhaps my theory that you need to win it at your first completion wasn't so stupid after all?
(Note: another first time winner this year with plenty of previous runners such as Rocky Creek not making progress).

Alvarado ran another very good race, as did Monbeg Dude

They did. Horses come back year after year and run good races but almost exclusively their best chance is their first one.

Nobody said your theory was stupid Roger, it`s just that horses do win coming back for another attempt.
By the way it is not your theory. It is a stat.

Alvarado & Monbeg Dude where both hampered. My theory is that if you are hampered that it almost always exclusively hampers your best chance of winning.

Alvarado and Monbeg got hampered because of their running style

Druids is only horse I can take out this race but next year we could see some seriously classy horses now a virtual top weight has won.

Hardly a 'new idea' back in the day. 1970+ .winner could be readily short listed from top 6 in the weights.

They should enter Coneygree in for next years race. It would certainly put the cat amongst the pigeons.

quite an amazing performance . carried more weight to victory than every winner since RED RUM carried 12 stone in 1974 . And as trainer said he thought this was a year too early for the grand national as he was only 8 year old and only ran on the owners wishes he can only improve  . He badly under performed in the gold cup and looking at trainers interview after the race i am pretty sure he expected to win gold cup . Be interesting to see what he will be aimed at next year GOLD CUP  or Grand National as next year we are back to normal and 3 week gap between the two . the handicapper will have to give him 12 stone next year but maybe he can be another Red Rum as he will be a more stronger horse . For sure he will be first horse since Bindaree to win a race after winning a Grand National .

AG, I think Bradstock will be hesitant to enter any horse in The National, I'm sure he was soured on the race after what happened to Do Rightly in 98. Probably why they've never considered Carruthers for it.

Hope I'm wrong though, would be great to see him go round there.

You will be right Fabulous, but we know Coneygree has Grand National stamped all over him. However here are some quotes from Sara Bradstock after the Do Rightly death.##

A tearful Sara Bradstock, the trainer's wife, said: "No-one has slept much here. We have lost a very, very good friend. It is a tragedy.

"The only relief is that he probably didn't know anything about it. He just jumped a bit carefully and landed on his head and died.

"It knocks everyone for six. It would take a lot for us to run another horse in the National, but we have got to go on."

Thanks for that AG, glad I wasn't imagining things. Well that's encouraging anyway, you're right, he'd be some sight round there, and you never know after that weight carried by Many Clouds.

The weight ceiling is relative of course though Fabulous. Coneygree would possibly have an OR of lets say 178 by then if he wins the Hennessy or the Gold Cup form is further franked. Perhaps Smithy would let him in with 172, but Many Clouds won off a mere 160.

Coneygree would be giving 20lb to 150 horses. There would be some very good staying chasers on 10st although would be some spectacle though.

Coneygree would be given a lower mark than his official one.

It would still result in many horses out of the handicap

I pointed that out Jasey.

Coneygree maybe rated 178+ by the time the weights come out for the GN.
The Gold Cup maybe of a higher standard than the OH gave it credit for. A few old dogs on here believe 172 is too low.
If he wins the Hennessy off 172 in Nov then what will his OR mark be before the OH can jiggle it for his GN weight.

I agree that Many Clouds put up one of the best performances for many years and I hope that he comes back as good next year. However, the statement "he can only improve" is often the kiss of death for young horses that win big races. Just consider Sprinter Sacre after his QM win, Long Run after his Gold Cup, More of That after the World Hurdle, Bobsworth after his Gold Cup, Taquin du Seuil, Simonsig after the Arkle, the list is sadly a long one. Very few horses back up a stellar season with another one.