Rocky Creek

I am a backer but every chance he will have to lump around a big weight,more weight he gets the more his chances of winning diminish.

Hedgehunter was a far better class of horse and better stayer than Rocky creek will ever be . Hedgehunter was probably  beaten in the 2004 National when falling at the last when a close third but he was staying the trip no problem . Hedgehunter won a Grand National trial aged just 7 at Punchestown in 2003 over 3 and a half miles in heavy ground , made all the running and won unchallenged  . Rocky creek should be in contention at the last but his stamina will go by the elbow , just like Seabass in 2012 .

so do you think Rocky Creek good enough be going for the cheltenham gold cup in next couple of years . Hedgehunter ran a good 2nd in it

well i doubt Holywell will ever come close to winning a gold cup . i could see it been a grand national horse next year though .

surely rocky wil have no stamina problems?

11 lb turnaround for Rocky though Homer + Rocky is now rated 9 lb higher than his GN mark. So in effect 20lb is the difference since that day. Rocky hated the ground that day. Djakadam also ran a stinker.

Rocky trained for the GN.

The strange thing is CCM his top figure is on soft ground(Newbury ground is still a ?)Yes his stamina bubble popped last year on good/soft so how could he get the trip better on soft ground this year around? well if you take last years Grand National as his level then he should empty even sooner.

BUT..
He has had the wind operation
Seems stronger and Nicholls senses a different horse.
He could be a stone+ better than last season and we haven`t even seen him at peak yet.

Suspect he will do a Big Fella Thanks - run a belter at a young age in the National but then instead of progressing run to similar level again getting no closer to winning.

If you're not good enough to win the National at your first completion, you've missed your chance. State Of Play, Big Fella, Oscar Time, all admirable horses running crackers again and again, but not getting any nearer. Virtually every year it's a debutant that wins.

Sorry, did say if you are not good enough to win at your first completion - so you can take Red Marauder, Hedgehunter and Silver Birch off your list and stick them back on mine as they won on their first completions. Amberleigh House and Mon Mome the only two for many years to have completed and then come back to win another time. That's not a great strike rate.

BFT was 5 or so llbs higher than his first run,unlike RC who is 2 llbs better off.With the quality of this race now it is harder to hide a horse from the handicapper.We see Irish horses running off higher marks than in Ireland and a number of horses needing to win just to get into the race.
Over the last few years best handicapped horses (well in)have ran very well,SHB all but won and BK last year was 9llb well in.3 of the last 8 winners were officially 5 llb well in,all this points to a huge run from Rocky.

So if Rocky had have fallen two out last year it would have made him a more likely winner this year.

Agree, he is rated 9lb higher on his new OR and Nicholls will not have had him to peak yet. So really he could be even better than 163, and gets in on 154. He could be a stone in. Could it have been a breathing issue rather than his genetic stamina levels giving way?

Either way a combination of the breathing op, maturity from 8-9, improvement and a more conserving ride can do it for me.

It would obviously appear to give him a better chance if he had fallen 2 out because we wouldn't have seen him tire on the run in which means he still has the stamina issue to prove.

heres hoping shockster    but i havent backed the winner of it since west tip!!

I have been toying with rocky creek for a while now they only reason i can come up with not to back him is he seemed not to stay last year, the breathing op alone seems to have helped him finishing of his races but when you consider last years prep for this race involved him missing the gold cup because he had ring worm that would make me think he failed last year because of lack of fitness not stamina (?)

`Different horse` is what has been repeatedly used by connections.

As the poster `Timeform` mentions the prep for last years race included getting over ringworm. Was it his fitness that gave way last year? perhaps he needed the run, he had not run since 25th January and had problems in his build up. Compare that to this year and it`s a completely different ball game. Add onto that the breathing op, the fact that he is already rated 9lb higher than last season and has not hit peak form in any of his races this season. Yet he runs off 154.

He could be the best handicapped horse in the race, despite carrying 11st 4lb.

AG. Wouldn't read too much into what connections are saying about the horse tbh. They have plenty of previous with talking up horses. Sil Conti was going to win the GC doing handsprings if you listened to PN!

Not against the horse though.... backed him at 10's when it started to dry up.

AG. Wouldn't read too much into what connections are saying about the horse tbh.

I think that you need to look into it a bit further.
A. The breathing OP
B. The official handicapper now agrees as well.
C. He has been trained for the race.

Zarkandar? Not seen the quotes you refer to CCM, but what would have brought on improvement in this fellow? Are you sure PFN didn`t just say he thought the horse was more streetwise and in better form? Hardly him saying the horse was now a much better horse than at any other stage in his career.

It seems to be the case with Rocky Creek that Nicholls knows he has horse that is stronger, breathing improved and finishing his races better.