*****GODSMEJUDGE *****

Definitely on my short list. Based on the 4 miler at Cheltenham though, Buddy Bolero looks better value bet at the 66's available.

Top of my list at the moment

On my shortlist too, but not top of it, because he's a bit small and I am not too sure he'll jump round. He'll love the trip, is a battler, and at least fairly handicapped, but he isn't thrown in or an obvious type to take to the fences.

As for being one of the few laid out for the race .. hmmmm
Shutthefrontdoor
Rocky Creek
Baltazar
Spring Heeled
Pineau
Teaforthree

all definitely have. I suspect Merry King has too but don't know for sure. That's 7/8 of the first 12 in the betting

Spring Heeled a mover in the Irish National market today.

barry M  i should have added been laid out for the race with a chance of winning . shutthefrontdoor irish national form could not have worked out any worse and stats say too young and too much weight anyway and if mccoy was not down to be the possible jockey would be a 33-1 chance at least . Rocky creek was spot on in february when winning  easily the betbright chase so hardly been trained for grand national in mind plus he did not stay trip last year so why would he now .baltazar kings third attemp at grand national , very good second last year and ran a shocker year before . hard to see it been third time lucky as had an injury problem earlier in season rather than been laid out for the national .spring heeled laid out for it but only a 8 year old  like shutthefrontdoor and as you should know there has only been two 8 year olds that won the national in past 30 years i think it is too soon for them . as far as pineau de re he is not a red rum , no horse won back to back in 41 years and only three 12 years won in past 30 years and those three had featherweights .teaforthree is a lovely reliable horse well fancied last two years 10-1 both times , could reach a place cos of his jumping and stamina . you could rip up all the record books if merry king won the national , apart from been only a 8 year old merry king has not won a chase over 2miles 4 furlongs and you have to go back to 1970 and gaye trip since that happened

Godsmejudge is my main fancy, and I'm quite strong on his chances. Looks a cracking ew bet. King wants to get one last run into him and he's entered over hurdles. Having said that I don't agree with a few of your easy dismissals of a couple of other contenders. Despite the McCoy factor Shutthefrontdoor is never a 33/1 shot even though I'm not personally keen. Rocky Creek has actually been trained this year with this one race in mind. Nicholls confrmed this right from day 1 this season, and even when Unioniste was being talked up he maintained this was his main hope. The fact he won the Betbright is a plus for his form rather than a negative. The issue over him lasting home is a different matter. I think he might being a year older and stronger but he's not a backable price now. I was going to back at 44 on here which would be value but 12/1 isn't.

T43 is a big price at 33/1 provided he's in form. Not sure really as last run was poor. His mark has dropped 7lb from his place in the race a couple of years back and that year was an afterthought after the welsh national. He'll be fresher this year and if in form I give him a big chance.

The two I can't decide upon are Royale Knight and Court By Surprise. The former is progressive but he seems to get in a bit tight to some fences. The latter I think will like the fences and should travel well, but can he stay the trip and he needs good ground.

Villaboy  i am pleased Godsmejudge running at Bangor Saturday . i find it strange that Dennis O"regan riding the horse for first time , not sure what is wrong with Wayne Hutchinson .

Wayne riding three for Alan at Newbury.

I think Gods is a must bet with a bit of luck in running i would be disappointed if he wasn't in the first 3.
Alvarado ran last year just like Cappa Bleu running on very late without looking like ever winning.State of Play was the same also

i expect Moloney to be placed again on Alvarado , i backed him last year and two out i thought he was a certainty but he got outpaced before finishing fast to grab 4th

I agree. Seems to lack the tactical pace to stay with the front few when they leave Bechers for the second time. I backed him last year but he wasn't able to get him into a position to threaten. Will be doing his best work late on, but likely one or two will have kicked too far clear by then. Would be interesting if Moloney tried to ride him closer to the pace earlier in the race this year.

I think godsmejudge has to be backed with the new easier fences, just ticks too many boxes and a decent price to boot at 25/1. Just hope he jumps well enough on the day and there isn't too much rain about. Although I've also backed Buddy Bolero who would probably want rain so hedging my bets on that score.

Still Think rocky Creek is a class apart form the rest. There are so many things that can go wrong in a National but he is surely the logical choice at the moment. Plenty of dour stayers in there like Godsmejudge and Pineau de Re but I don't think any of them would get within 10 lengths of RC on a park course over 3-3.5 miles.

Except Aintree ain't .

Thoughts on todays run?

Not off. Schooling in public. I'd give it 42 days off for schooling in public!

shocking run tbf, can't see him winning after that.

B365 not impressed. Out to 33/1 !!

he finished last, it was shocking. Was half expecting a place today tbh. Horse clearly not in-form.

Similar to last season then 4th run was second in Scots National.Trust the trainer to get him spot on for day.

Was running off a 10lb lower mark today than at Aintree. Like yourself Sint, I was hopeful it would have been placed. Not withstanding the fact that I do feel it was given an "easy one", it is difficult to feel confident about it for Aintree

I agree I am a little disappointed but AE got thrashed 50 odd lengths in his final prep and DPI was pulled up in the Pertemps after tailing off.Unless Gods has a prob you gotta keep the faith.

Lump on the 33/1 then ?

I have had another nibble at 33s  but already backed at 22s and 25s so at my maximum bet now.

Good stuff

probably a foolish thing to do but taken some 33/1 even though I think it was a very disappointing run today. If there is one race that brings out of form horses back to life it is the Grand National.

Never going to get placed in a hurdle race on a tight 3m track. You'd like him to have beaten something though. Odd, 365 have gone out on a limb at 33, most firms in to 20. Hopefully he's OK but the 33 is NRNB and I can't see him starting that price so no harm in a nibble.

Sageform "I don't think any of them would get within 10 lengths of RC on a park course over 3-3.5 miles"
How is that relevant really?

If it was 3 miles round Kempton, Rocky Creek would be a short price (although the Druid's N might beat him). But it isn't, and he didn't last home last year. PN says he had problems, which are now sorted, and that's why he didn't finish properly last year, but he said the same about Sivianaco Contin in the GC, who ran even worse. He may be right, he often is, he's the best trainer we've ever had .... but the reality is he cannot KNOW RC will stay, no-one will until April 11. I you back him, you are taking a big risk on his stamina.

I love the shape of the market this year, the first 4 all look very opposable. Shutthefrontdoor is far from certain to jump round imo, let alone jump well enough to win. He's already too short and the AP hype will almost certainly mean he'll just keep getting shorter. Rocky Creek and The Druid's Nephew have big stamina doubts. Balthazar King is hopelessly handicapped. There are much solider propositions further down the betting and it's very much a race to play each way at 25s plus this year for me.

Lol. Bet365's 33/1 hammered by Forum members. Back to 20/1 now

Balthazar King is hopelessly handicapped

I wouldn`t agree Barry. Yes 3lb higher than last year but that 3lb may easily be negated by his freshness this year. Last year he had to dig very deep in the X- Country at Cheltenham just 24 days earlier. He ran a cracker all things considering and this year he has been trained for the race so i expect him to run at least 3lb better than he did in last years GN.

Some comments from trainers website:

Alan confessed that he was "disappointed" with Godsmejudge's run over hurdles at Bangor. "We'll have to run a few tests, but that was not him," was the trainer's assessment about our Grand National hope, who will have to bounce back to become a contender for Aintree.

AG

Agreed. Major chance this year imo.

No denying that yesterdays run was hugely disappointing. I expected him to show a lot more sparkle than he did. I'm not ripping up my ticket but nowhere near as confident as I once was.

was a shocking run bt godsmejudge yesterday , Alan king to carry out tests on the horse as it was such a below par performance .  Last year he ran a bad race on 1st march 2014 ( tailed off and pulled up 4 out ) followed by a brilliant effort  to finish close  2nd in the Scottish national to Al Co , so hopefully he will bounce back. ALCo ran a good race yesterday and this strong stayer would have to enter calculations .

I would be very happy with Saturdays performance if I was on Al Co. I wouldn't be too happy with his performance last time over these fences BUT it may have just been a case of getting experience of the fences whilst protecting his handicap mark for a very shrewd trainer.

Al Co has had 3 runs over hurdles and 1 over fences this season..odd prep?

That Becher run was enough to scare me off Al Co, didn't seem to enjoy it one bit to me. Interesting they are persevering though.

Ballabriggs prep was 2 hurdles then 1 chase prior to his win and last years winner had about 4 pops over hurdles.

Barry M: ref my post on Rocky Creek. Surely the starting point for a Grand National assessment is to decide on the right price over 3 miles around a park course and then modify your prices to allow for doubts about jumping round, getting the trip, the going etc. I was just pointing out that you would start Rocky off at around 5/2 and then work from there. 12/1 is still a very generous price imo. He may have weakened last year from the second last but he had run in some hard races and the National was not his main target. This time it has been the target all along and the last run showed him to have improved significantly. I would not rule out Unioniste either if it came up soft but he has gone up the handicap.

I know Jasey but 3:1 seems a bit odd to me. 2:2 better to see if he likes jumping fences this season

Agree sage re Rocky Creek had big bet on him last year e/w,and have done so again.
As he still maturing and improving,goes on any ground jumps well and class horse of race,
Lets hope he stays a bit better,as if I remember from last year he was ridden pretty close to pace.
Held up bit more, will be right in the mix,with The Druids Nephew being a big danger
if seeing out trip imo.

Going back to Godsmejudge, he needs to make up 30 lengths on RC for the extra trip at the same weights.

Alvarado is now the new number 40.

sageform     24 Mar 15 14:10 
Going back to Godsmejudge, he needs to make up 30 lengths on RC for the extra trip at the same weights.



Aintree race can make a mockery of such stats.

The 2015 Old Moores Almanac says a 9 year old carrying 10-8 may win the Grand National

Facts, of course the National is different, that is why the market is what it is. I would make Godsmejudge 66/1 to beat Rocky Creek over 3 miles round Ascot or Kempton on the same terms as their last meeting but of course mistakes, interference, stamina issues etc. could bring them together or more likely, both will fall or be brought down.

How positive are we that Godsmejudge will line up.  I here that Alan King is not a fan of the Grand National and tends to target those staying types at the Scottish National.  My view is unless you can get a NRNB price then leave till closer to the time when an intent to run comes out of his yard (unless someone on here tells me it has, but I have not heard it)

Sage
I have backed Rocky Creek but 3 on soft ground has no bearing on this race.GMJs form over extreme distances is far superior to Rockys.
If they raced off the level over 4 mile I would still fancy GMJ to beat Rocky.

All a matter of opinion. Is a win and a second in the Scottish National better than 5th in a Grand National? Course form is worth an extra few pounds to me.

do anybody know what was the outcome of Godsmejudges  tests after saurdays run ?

I doubt there was anything wrong. Racecourse exercise gallop to aid fitness,was all it was ever intended to be imo.

the plan is still the grand national according to the trainer in the weekender today

Dont get this "course form" for finding the winner of the race, Amberleigh House apart i cant think of a Horse thats finished in the 1st 5 in a previous National going on to win the race...you'd have to go back to Hello Dandy/Red Rum/L'Escargot..some of them go on to be placed in minor Positions, but imo if you dont win it 1st time, or were unlucky in falling...your off my shortlist...you either were not good enough or didnt like the trip....

In fact the only ones who triumphed on their 2nd go were fallers West Tip,Little Polvier and Hedgehunter who all fell if memory serves me right

http://www1.skysports.com/racing/news/12426/9775769?

Think Little Polvier was on his fourth go when he won.

Rocky Creek was galloping all over the field jumping the third last , the view now seems to be they will  pace him for his stamina to last.

Easier said than done , horse reminds me of Big Fella Thanks who twice was running all over the field , failing to see the trip out.

Mon Mome was 10th then won the following year. Red Marauder and Silver Birch both fell the previous year

Amberleigh House won on his third attempt as well

Correct 626, it was the fourth attempt by Little Polvier, having fell twice before. Since the 80's, there have been 8 winners who've fell in previous attempts over the fences.

Trainer Alan King had hoped to give the nine-year-old a profitable spin over hurdles at the Welsh circuit, but he ended up finishing last of 11 runners in a three-mile handicap.


The Barbury Castle handler was initially convinced something was amiss with the 2013 Scottish National winner, but he has returned to Wiltshire in sound health.

Aintree on April 11 is still very much the plan for Godsmejudge, with Wayne Hutchinson set to renew acquaintances on Merseyside, where he is a general 20-1 chance.

"He's fine, all is OK," said King.

"He didn't like going back hurdling and the plan didn't work. All roads still lead to Aintree and Wayne will ride him."






Plan ? Profitable spin ? Surely weren't expecting horse to finish in the money ?

Would be interesting in the Scottish National off a mark only 1lb higher than he won off(OR now 141)

pleased godsmejudge is fine after the Bangor race , was sure there must have been some type of sickness or injury the way he ran . it was 3 years since his last hurdles race so maybe he just never fancied it .  i was surprised in the  first place that he put him over hurdles at this stage of the year , normally  you would just run them over hurdles to protect their handicap mark . if Wayne hutchinson had ridden the horse at Bangor then the trainer would have had more idea why godsmejudge ran poorly, so as Dennis oreagan had never ridden it before it he would not know if horse felt any different than normal .

pleased godsmejudge is fine after the Bangor race , was sure there must have been some type of sickness or injury the way he ran . it was 3 years since his last hurdles race so maybe he just never fancied it .  i was surprised in the  first place that he put him over hurdles at this stage of the year , normally  you would just run them over hurdles to protect their handicap mark . if Wayne hutchinson had ridden the horse at Bangor then the trainer would have had more idea why godsmejudge ran poorly, so as Dennis oreagan had never ridden it before it he would not know if horse felt any different than normal .