Forums

Grand National

There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
barry rico
18 Mar 15 22:43
Joined:
Date Joined: 24 Oct 04
| Topic/replies: 164 | Blogger: barry rico's blog
GODSMEJUDGE  is the 5 star bet for the Grand National . Its  one of a few that has been been kept just for this race and that will also  stay the trip no problem . It is a April horse , take a look at his form .  A first and second in the Scottish National and a third in the bet 365 Gold cup at Sandown  the only 3 times its ran in April . The 2013 Scottish National win was quite an outstanding effort carrying 11-3 as a young 7 year old he romped to victory . Last year in the same race he ran a cracker to finish 2nd , staying on very strongly and closing  the gap on the strong stayer Al Co to go down by 1 1/2  lenghts .then in the bet 365 GOLD cup only going down by 3 1/4 length over a trip on the short side 3m 5 f . I expect it to go off around 12-1 on the day  behind whatever Mccoy rides  and Rocky creek  .  i cant have Shutthefrontdoor on both form and trends .  while i feel Rocky Creek could sneak a place at best  but as it faded into 5th last year hard to see him outstaying very strong stayers like GODMEJUDGE and ALVARADO .

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 1 of 2  •  Previous 1 | 2 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 65
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 18 Mar 15 23:25
Definitely on my short list. Based on the 4 miler at Cheltenham though, Buddy Bolero looks better value bet at the 66's available.
By:
marychain1
When: 19 Mar 15 01:08
Top of my list at the moment
By:
BarryM
When: 19 Mar 15 20:31
On my shortlist too, but not top of it, because he's a bit small and I am not too sure he'll jump round. He'll love the trip, is a battler, and at least fairly handicapped, but he isn't thrown in or an obvious type to take to the fences.
By:
BarryM
When: 19 Mar 15 20:35
As for being one of the few laid out for the race .. hmmmm
Shutthefrontdoor
Rocky Creek
Baltazar
Spring Heeled
Pineau
Teaforthree

all definitely have. I suspect Merry King has too but don't know for sure. That's 7/8 of the first 12 in the betting
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 19 Mar 15 20:38
Spring Heeled a mover in the Irish National market today.
By:
barry rico
When: 19 Mar 15 22:18
barry M  i should have added been laid out for the race with a chance of winning . shutthefrontdoor irish national form could not have worked out any worse and stats say too young and too much weight anyway and if mccoy was not down to be the possible jockey would be a 33-1 chance at least . Rocky creek was spot on in february when winning  easily the betbright chase so hardly been trained for grand national in mind plus he did not stay trip last year so why would he now .baltazar kings third attemp at grand national , very good second last year and ran a shocker year before . hard to see it been third time lucky as had an injury problem earlier in season rather than been laid out for the national .spring heeled laid out for it but only a 8 year old  like shutthefrontdoor and as you should know there has only been two 8 year olds that won the national in past 30 years i think it is too soon for them . as far as pineau de re he is not a red rum , no horse won back to back in 41 years and only three 12 years won in past 30 years and those three had featherweights .teaforthree is a lovely reliable horse well fancied last two years 10-1 both times , could reach a place cos of his jumping and stamina . you could rip up all the record books if merry king won the national , apart from been only a 8 year old merry king has not won a chase over 2miles 4 furlongs and you have to go back to 1970 and gaye trip since that happened
By:
VillaBoy
When: 19 Mar 15 23:15
Godsmejudge is my main fancy, and I'm quite strong on his chances. Looks a cracking ew bet. King wants to get one last run into him and he's entered over hurdles. Having said that I don't agree with a few of your easy dismissals of a couple of other contenders. Despite the McCoy factor Shutthefrontdoor is never a 33/1 shot even though I'm not personally keen. Rocky Creek has actually been trained this year with this one race in mind. Nicholls confrmed this right from day 1 this season, and even when Unioniste was being talked up he maintained this was his main hope. The fact he won the Betbright is a plus for his form rather than a negative. The issue over him lasting home is a different matter. I think he might being a year older and stronger but he's not a backable price now. I was going to back at 44 on here which would be value but 12/1 isn't.

T43 is a big price at 33/1 provided he's in form. Not sure really as last run was poor. His mark has dropped 7lb from his place in the race a couple of years back and that year was an afterthought after the welsh national. He'll be fresher this year and if in form I give him a big chance.

The two I can't decide upon are Royale Knight and Court By Surprise. The former is progressive but he seems to get in a bit tight to some fences. The latter I think will like the fences and should travel well, but can he stay the trip and he needs good ground.
By:
barry rico
When: 20 Mar 15 16:46
Villaboy  i am pleased Godsmejudge running at Bangor Saturday . i find it strange that Dennis O"regan riding the horse for first time , not sure what is wrong with Wayne Hutchinson .
By:
Facts
When: 20 Mar 15 18:48
Wayne riding three for Alan at Newbury.
By:
jasey
When: 20 Mar 15 20:37
I think Gods is a must bet with a bit of luck in running i would be disappointed if he wasn't in the first 3.
Alvarado ran last year just like Cappa Bleu running on very late without looking like ever winning.State of Play was the same also
By:
barry rico
When: 20 Mar 15 23:07
i expect Moloney to be placed again on Alvarado , i backed him last year and two out i thought he was a certainty but he got outpaced before finishing fast to grab 4th
By:
VillaBoy
When: 20 Mar 15 23:45
I agree. Seems to lack the tactical pace to stay with the front few when they leave Bechers for the second time. I backed him last year but he wasn't able to get him into a position to threaten. Will be doing his best work late on, but likely one or two will have kicked too far clear by then. Would be interesting if Moloney tried to ride him closer to the pace earlier in the race this year.
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 20 Mar 15 23:48
I think godsmejudge has to be backed with the new easier fences, just ticks too many boxes and a decent price to boot at 25/1. Just hope he jumps well enough on the day and there isn't too much rain about. Although I've also backed Buddy Bolero who would probably want rain so hedging my bets on that score.
By:
sageform
When: 21 Mar 15 13:50
Still Think rocky Creek is a class apart form the rest. There are so many things that can go wrong in a National but he is surely the logical choice at the moment. Plenty of dour stayers in there like Godsmejudge and Pineau de Re but I don't think any of them would get within 10 lengths of RC on a park course over 3-3.5 miles.
By:
Facts
When: 21 Mar 15 14:00
Except Aintree ain't .
By:
sintonian
When: 21 Mar 15 16:47
Thoughts on todays run?
By:
jameschildshieldwinner
When: 21 Mar 15 16:53
Not off. Schooling in public. I'd give it 42 days off for schooling in public!
By:
sintonian
When: 21 Mar 15 17:00
shocking run tbf, can't see him winning after that.
By:
Facts
When: 21 Mar 15 17:07
B365 not impressed. Out to 33/1 !!
By:
sintonian
When: 21 Mar 15 17:10
he finished last, it was shocking. Was half expecting a place today tbh. Horse clearly not in-form.
By:
jasey
When: 21 Mar 15 17:12
Similar to last season then 4th run was second in Scots National.Trust the trainer to get him spot on for day.
By:
jameschildshieldwinner
When: 21 Mar 15 17:20
Was running off a 10lb lower mark today than at Aintree. Like yourself Sint, I was hopeful it would have been placed. Not withstanding the fact that I do feel it was given an "easy one", it is difficult to feel confident about it for Aintree
By:
jasey
When: 21 Mar 15 17:35
I agree I am a little disappointed but AE got thrashed 50 odd lengths in his final prep and DPI was pulled up in the Pertemps after tailing off.Unless Gods has a prob you gotta keep the faith.
By:
Facts
When: 21 Mar 15 17:48
Lump on the 33/1 then ?
By:
jasey
When: 21 Mar 15 18:33
I have had another nibble at 33s  but already backed at 22s and 25s so at my maximum bet now.
By:
Facts
When: 21 Mar 15 19:03
Good stuff
By:
sintonian
When: 21 Mar 15 22:12
probably a foolish thing to do but taken some 33/1 even though I think it was a very disappointing run today. If there is one race that brings out of form horses back to life it is the Grand National.
By:
BarryM
When: 22 Mar 15 00:57
Never going to get placed in a hurdle race on a tight 3m track. You'd like him to have beaten something though. Odd, 365 have gone out on a limb at 33, most firms in to 20. Hopefully he's OK but the 33 is NRNB and I can't see him starting that price so no harm in a nibble.
By:
BarryM
When: 22 Mar 15 01:07
Sageform "I don't think any of them would get within 10 lengths of RC on a park course over 3-3.5 miles"
How is that relevant really?

If it was 3 miles round Kempton, Rocky Creek would be a short price (although the Druid's N might beat him). But it isn't, and he didn't last home last year. PN says he had problems, which are now sorted, and that's why he didn't finish properly last year, but he said the same about Sivianaco Contin in the GC, who ran even worse. He may be right, he often is, he's the best trainer we've ever had .... but the reality is he cannot KNOW RC will stay, no-one will until April 11. I you back him, you are taking a big risk on his stamina.

I love the shape of the market this year, the first 4 all look very opposable. Shutthefrontdoor is far from certain to jump round imo, let alone jump well enough to win. He's already too short and the AP hype will almost certainly mean he'll just keep getting shorter. Rocky Creek and The Druid's Nephew have big stamina doubts. Balthazar King is hopelessly handicapped. There are much solider propositions further down the betting and it's very much a race to play each way at 25s plus this year for me.
By:
Facts
When: 22 Mar 15 09:57
Lol. Bet365's 33/1 hammered by Forum members. Back to 20/1 now Happy
By:
Angel Gabrial
When: 22 Mar 15 12:05
Balthazar King is hopelessly handicapped

I wouldn`t agree Barry. Yes 3lb higher than last year but that 3lb may easily be negated by his freshness this year. Last year he had to dig very deep in the X- Country at Cheltenham just 24 days earlier. He ran a cracker all things considering and this year he has been trained for the race so i expect him to run at least 3lb better than he did in last years GN.
By:
GI MAC
When: 22 Mar 15 12:40
Some comments from trainers website:

Alan confessed that he was "disappointed" with Godsmejudge's run over hurdles at Bangor. "We'll have to run a few tests, but that was not him," was the trainer's assessment about our Grand National hope, who will have to bounce back to become a contender for Aintree.
By:
Facts
When: 22 Mar 15 17:24
AG

Agreed. Major chance this year imo.
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 22 Mar 15 23:10
No denying that yesterdays run was hugely disappointing. I expected him to show a lot more sparkle than he did. I'm not ripping up my ticket but nowhere near as confident as I once was.
By:
barry rico
When: 23 Mar 15 02:26
was a shocking run bt godsmejudge yesterday , Alan king to carry out tests on the horse as it was such a below par performance .  Last year he ran a bad race on 1st march 2014 ( tailed off and pulled up 4 out ) followed by a brilliant effort  to finish close  2nd in the Scottish national to Al Co , so hopefully he will bounce back. ALCo ran a good race yesterday and this strong stayer would have to enter calculations .
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 23 Mar 15 09:53
I would be very happy with Saturdays performance if I was on Al Co. I wouldn't be too happy with his performance last time over these fences BUT it may have just been a case of getting experience of the fences whilst protecting his handicap mark for a very shrewd trainer.
By:
sintonian
When: 23 Mar 15 18:07
Al Co has had 3 runs over hurdles and 1 over fences this season..odd prep?
By:
Tatie Baron
When: 23 Mar 15 19:07
That Becher run was enough to scare me off Al Co, didn't seem to enjoy it one bit to me. Interesting they are persevering though.
By:
jasey
When: 23 Mar 15 20:27
Ballabriggs prep was 2 hurdles then 1 chase prior to his win and last years winner had about 4 pops over hurdles.
Page 1 of 2  •  Previous 1 | 2 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com