Grand National
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*****GODSMEJUDGE *****
*****GODSMEJUDGE *****
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Barry M: ref my post on Rocky Creek. Surely the starting point for a Grand National assessment is to decide on the right price over 3 miles around a park course and then modify your prices to allow for doubts about jumping round, getting the trip, the going etc. I was just pointing out that you would start Rocky off at around 5/2 and then work from there. 12/1 is still a very generous price imo. He may have weakened last year from the second last but he had run in some hard races and the National was not his main target. This time it has been the target all along and the last run showed him to have improved significantly. I would not rule out Unioniste either if it came up soft but he has gone up the handicap.
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I know Jasey but 3:1 seems a bit odd to me. 2:2 better to see if he likes jumping fences this season
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Agree sage re Rocky Creek had big bet on him last year e/w,and have done so again.
As he still maturing and improving,goes on any ground jumps well and class horse of race, Lets hope he stays a bit better,as if I remember from last year he was ridden pretty close to pace. Held up bit more, will be right in the mix,with The Druids Nephew being a big danger if seeing out trip imo. |
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Going back to Godsmejudge, he needs to make up 30 lengths on RC for the extra trip at the same weights.
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Alvarado is now the new number 40.
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sageform 24 Mar 15 14:10
Going back to Godsmejudge, he needs to make up 30 lengths on RC for the extra trip at the same weights. Aintree race can make a mockery of such stats. |
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The 2015 Old Moores Almanac says a 9 year old carrying 10-8 may win the Grand National
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Facts, of course the National is different, that is why the market is what it is. I would make Godsmejudge 66/1 to beat Rocky Creek over 3 miles round Ascot or Kempton on the same terms as their last meeting but of course mistakes, interference, stamina issues etc. could bring them together or more likely, both will fall or be brought down.
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How positive are we that Godsmejudge will line up. I here that Alan King is not a fan of the Grand National and tends to target those staying types at the Scottish National. My view is unless you can get a NRNB price then leave till closer to the time when an intent to run comes out of his yard (unless someone on here tells me it has, but I have not heard it)
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Sage
I have backed Rocky Creek but 3 on soft ground has no bearing on this race.GMJs form over extreme distances is far superior to Rockys. If they raced off the level over 4 mile I would still fancy GMJ to beat Rocky. |
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All a matter of opinion. Is a win and a second in the Scottish National better than 5th in a Grand National? Course form is worth an extra few pounds to me.
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do anybody know what was the outcome of Godsmejudges tests after saurdays run ?
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I doubt there was anything wrong. Racecourse exercise gallop to aid fitness,was all it was ever intended to be imo.
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the plan is still the grand national according to the trainer in the weekender today
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Dont get this "course form" for finding the winner of the race, Amberleigh House apart i cant think of a Horse thats finished in the 1st 5 in a previous National going on to win the race...you'd have to go back to Hello Dandy/Red Rum/L'Escargot..some of them go on to be placed in minor Positions, but imo if you dont win it 1st time, or were unlucky in falling...your off my shortlist...you either were not good enough or didnt like the trip....
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In fact the only ones who triumphed on their 2nd go were fallers West Tip,Little Polvier and Hedgehunter who all fell if memory serves me right
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http://www1.skysports.com/racing/news/12426/9775769?
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Think Little Polvier was on his fourth go when he won.
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Rocky Creek was galloping all over the field jumping the third last , the view now seems to be they will pace him for his stamina to last.
Easier said than done , horse reminds me of Big Fella Thanks who twice was running all over the field , failing to see the trip out. |
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Mon Mome was 10th then won the following year. Red Marauder and Silver Birch both fell the previous year
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Amberleigh House won on his third attempt as well
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Correct 626, it was the fourth attempt by Little Polvier, having fell twice before. Since the 80's, there have been 8 winners who've fell in previous attempts over the fences.
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Trainer Alan King had hoped to give the nine-year-old a profitable spin over hurdles at the Welsh circuit, but he ended up finishing last of 11 runners in a three-mile handicap.
The Barbury Castle handler was initially convinced something was amiss with the 2013 Scottish National winner, but he has returned to Wiltshire in sound health. Aintree on April 11 is still very much the plan for Godsmejudge, with Wayne Hutchinson set to renew acquaintances on Merseyside, where he is a general 20-1 chance. "He's fine, all is OK," said King. "He didn't like going back hurdling and the plan didn't work. All roads still lead to Aintree and Wayne will ride him." Plan ? Profitable spin ? Surely weren't expecting horse to finish in the money ? |
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Would be interesting in the Scottish National off a mark only 1lb higher than he won off(OR now 141)
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pleased godsmejudge is fine after the Bangor race , was sure there must have been some type of sickness or injury the way he ran . it was 3 years since his last hurdles race so maybe he just never fancied it . i was surprised in the first place that he put him over hurdles at this stage of the year , normally you would just run them over hurdles to protect their handicap mark . if Wayne hutchinson had ridden the horse at Bangor then the trainer would have had more idea why godsmejudge ran poorly, so as Dennis oreagan had never ridden it before it he would not know if horse felt any different than normal .
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pleased godsmejudge is fine after the Bangor race , was sure there must have been some type of sickness or injury the way he ran . it was 3 years since his last hurdles race so maybe he just never fancied it . i was surprised in the first place that he put him over hurdles at this stage of the year , normally you would just run them over hurdles to protect their handicap mark . if Wayne hutchinson had ridden the horse at Bangor then the trainer would have had more idea why godsmejudge ran poorly, so as Dennis oreagan had never ridden it before it he would not know if horse felt any different than normal .
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