Grand National
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20 Feb 15
10:04
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11 Mar 02
You look like a genius (unlikely) or fool (more likely), for what its worth:
Teaforthree
Shotgun Paddy
Living Next Door
First Lieutenant
Teaforthree
Shotgun Paddy
Living Next Door
First Lieutenant
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Godsmejudge
Al Co Spring Heeled Monbeg Dude |
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Theatrical Star
Godsmejudge Maggio Back In Focus |
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Home Farm
Rubi Light Alderwood Theatrical Star |
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Merry King
Pineau De Re Wyck Hill Night In Milan |
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pineau de re
spring heeled unioniste merry king |
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gods me judge
shutthefrontdoor rocky creek baltazzaar king |
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Balthazar king
Sam winner Saint are Night in Milan |
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Godsmejudge
Teaforthree Alvarado Night In Milan Rocky Creek(for 5 place players!) |
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I fancy Teaforthree and Night in Milan too. T43 has been well treated by the handicapper, was placed off 11st 3 a couple of years ago, is in decent form and is the right age. 33/1 is massive
I liked the look of Night in Milan last year but it didn't get in, it's got a little bit high in the weights but still has a chance. Didn't run too badly at all at the weekend and 50/1 is also a great bet |
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Can't see past Rocky Creek if he gets a clear round.
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I completely agree with the bloob, am all over t43. He looked in great form first time out, then ran just over a week later to try and qualify for the foxhunters, but you could tell beforehand the trainer was really uncomfortable with it, he needed a bit of time. After that forgiveable and predictable flop the handicapper has given him 7lb back, which was a big surprise. Expect most of T Martin's yard to be running (badly) in meaningless hunter chases next Feb:)
I think he's thrown in, He's the right age, he knows his way round, he stays, handles any ground, and travels. I think it's a blessing that the Cheltenham plan went wrong because he's better when fresher these days imo, I think running in the gold cup last year might have taken the edge off him for Aintree. I also like Godsmejudge, though but worried he's on the small side. Particularly like Merry King, who ran a blinder in the Hennesy, and is by Old Vic, who's progeny have a remarkable tendency to take to the big fences. And if I have to have 4 at this stage I'll throw in the Druid's Nephew. Interesting there's only one vote for Shutthefrontdoor. If you believe the hype you'd think he was going to start about 4/7. But then the National market isn't really made by people who know anything about it. |
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Think since they made all the big modifications 2 years ago its starting to become a race for extreme stayers, lets look at the 1st 4 home in the last two years.
2014 Pineau De Rei.. Won the Ulster National over 3m 4F Bath King... Cross Country form at 4m Double Seven..an Outlier..had only won at 25f Alvarado.. Won over 3m 4F at Chelt(well 33.5 but its a stiff Hill  )2013 Auruoras Encore.. beaten a head in the previous years Scottish National Cappa Bleu..PLaced in previous Aintree and welsh Nationals Tea For Three..Won 4m Nat Hunt Chaae Oscar Time...2nd in a previous National With the jumping not such a test as it was and combined with my thoughts that a mark of 150 here means you're nearly Gold Cup class..so they're out despite the compression and a personal bias against horses who have run in the race before(if they've run well the handicapper takes notice and if they havent then maybe they are not suited. Two at present Royale Knight Godsmejudge |
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Mon Parrain
Night In Milan Monbeg Dude Oscar Time |
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my 4 would be:
Teaforthree 33/1 Night in Milan 50/1 Theatrical Star 66/1 Chance du Roy 40/1 |
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It's impossible to look at a list of National entries without wondering why State of Play isn't on the list
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Unioniste
Prince De Beauchene The Druids Nephew The Package I backed Rocky Creek when the weights were published but have a feeling he does not really get the trip. Unioniste will get it on his Irish and his run behind Coneygree looks pretty good to me when you consider he was trying to give the Gold Cup hero 5. But in truth my short list just goes on and on. |
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Rocky Creek
Teaforthree Prince De Beauchene Saint Are |
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Spring Heeled
Pineau De Re Rocky Creek Balthazar King |
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Buddy Bolero
Broadway Buffalo Godsmejudge Harry The Viking (if he gets in!) |
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can I change my mind? with Theatrical Star a non-runner, Teaforthree missing a prep race (last run not great so needed one) and Royale Knight getting a decent prep in today. I would go for:
Royale Knight Alvarado Night in Milan Chance du Roy |
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My 4 are:
Night in Milan Saint Are Across The Bay Alverado |
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Godsmejudge
T43 Court By Surprise Royale Knight |
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1st godmejudge
2nd chance du roy 3rd alvarado 4th al co |
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In racecard order:
Carlito Brigante Night in Milan Al Co Portrait King |
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Cause of Causes
Ely Brown Renard Royale Knight I'd have Guess Again in there, but he's looking touch and go. |
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Cause of Causes
Gallant Oscar Broadway Buffalo Guess Again At least three possible NRs in there, in which case Pineau de Re, The Druids Nephew and Al Co. |
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Godsmejudge
Excellent form in staying chases, disappointing run last time out as was expecting more from a prep this close to the race. Nevertheless if he is in form on the day he is a great danger to all. TeaforThree Placed horses in the national do not have the greatest record in then going on to win the national but there can't be too many who are trying again on a 7lb lower mark.Yes he's had a few injury problems and LTO was a bit of a disappointment but he didn't run too well before placing at Aintree two years ago. A risk worth taking at the prices. The Druids Nephew His form behind Sam Winner at Cheltenham gave many a reason to believe he was well handicapped for the festival and he duly obliged. He's on the same mark here and can replicate sunnyhillboy from a few years ago and go close here. The trip is an unknown but has same sire as Balthazar King so there is hope in the pedigree. Merry King Ran well enough in last years Scottish national for a 7 year old and should stay this extreme trip now he's a year older and stronger. His run in the hennessy suggests to me he has improved and will be a danger to all. |
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t43 cant make I .
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In no particular order
ROCKY CREEK FIRST LIEUTENANT MON PARRAIN CARLITO BRIGANTE |
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Rocky Creek
Godsmejudge Soll Goonyella(if absent)-Portrait King |
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Al Co
Royale Knight Portrait King Balthazaar King first 3 all ran in a hurdle race lto  |
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AL CO
FIRST LIEUTENANT PINEAU DE RE GODSMEJUDGE |
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Shutthefrontdoor
Balthazar King Night In Milan Godsmejudge |
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Godsmejudge
Rocky Creek Monbeg Dude Al Co |
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Alvarado
Chance Du Roy Soll Rocky Creek |
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Mr Moloney has placed in the last 6 Grand Nationals on 3 different horses , a staggering achievement.
Even picked the right one when State Of Play & Cappa Bleu both ran, I think I recall. |
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a better jockey than Moloney would have won two of those races . i was hoping Moloney could have been suspended for the race and the champ be offered the ride . Alvorado has serious chance but he will come flying through late again to be placed
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A short legged Andrew Thornton......