Grand National
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Goonyella
Goonyella
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It's all about opinions , will be good to look at different peoples choices once the race is run .....at least we are not aftertiming.
Apart from Goonyella , I think Teaforthree and Rocky Creek look obvious possibilities . In addition I have a sneaky feeling that Colbert Station could run a cracker. He tips up far too often for confidence , but his falls have all been when still travelling well. These new hurdles may well suit him. |
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Yes sure it's just my interpretation but using On His Own as a yardstick let's look at Teaforthree and Triolo D'Alene (I'm on this one) in the Gold Cup, and I appreciate that it was a warm up for the National, but they were going for it at 2 out. T43 was beaten 21L and TD btn 30L off levels. Buckers was beaten 17L in the Bobbyjo giving OHO 5lb. T43 9/1Fav, BB 66/1.
I know these things rarely work out like this but the price of this one is wrong IMO. |
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f*ckinell sixtwosix, you've named three of mine there!
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Gold Cup was a total freak of a race, using that form literally is pretty dangerous imo
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I agree in principal Marychain about the Gold Cup, My point is that On His Own has had 3 cracking good runs on the spin and was in the form of his life and connections new this, thus supplementing him for the Gold Cup.
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Agree Marychain1 . It is the one worry I would have for Teaforthree (and any runner in the Gold Cup). It was a very average renewal , but it looked to take a stack out of the combatants .
On His Own peaked at the right time ,just like Synchronised , in a poor renewal . The quality of the Gold Cup goes up and down ....we had a stellar period and now three pretty average races. |
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I don't have any issue with Giant Bolster, On His Own or Lord Windermere's run in the Gold Cup. If someone had said you could throw a blanket over them as they finished I wouldn't have been surprised. I don't think its unreasonable to look at that form for what it is.
I would have assumed we were talking about the 3rd-5th placed finishers though, 15+ lengths behind Bob's Worth. |
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Sounds about right Marychain although not many win more than 1 Gold cup. Still the price differential on Buckers Bridge and T43, Triolo looks wrong on lines through OHO and to me that spells value. Noy saying it's going to win but is value based on form and price of the favourite.
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T43 surely too short though and priced up on basis that he was best finisher last year of those trying again.
Bit harsh begrudging Swing Bill a run given he was sixth last year and would have rewarded each way players with one or two firms at 80/1. Just wonder if Monbeg Dude might start favourite - by Saturday morning the general public will be buying into the idea that Zara trains him for her hubbie who bought him when p1ssed after a dwarf throwing contest. As for me, I'm increasingly keen on the chances of The Package. |
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Nick Henderson says 3 of his runners wont like the SOFT ground. So why on earth is he running them! Answer up maestro and give some respect to those who would appreciate the SOFT ground. Too many owners in this race for the craic.
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You answered your own question. It is the same with Festival handicaps. Those framing the races like to see the 'deadwood' keeping out something that potentially might have a few pounds in hand. It's alright raving about a better class of runner but often these horses are a couple of years past their best.
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The Ebor on the flat is a classic example. 3 year olds have no chance of getting a run
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Swing bill apparently last one in, so owners can withdraw Buckers Bridge if they prefer Goonyella.
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Is there any chance Katie walsh rides colbert station??
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Just wonder if Monbeg Dude might start favourite - by Saturday morning the general public will be buying into the idea that Zara trains him for her hubbie who bought him when p1ssed after a dwarf throwing contest.
 yes, reese, the public fall for that type of horse every year.... |
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The Ebor on the flat is a classic example. 3 year olds have no chance of getting a run
tommy, I think the order of ballot will be decided by official mark, not actual weight to be carried. 3yos would have as good a chance as any of getting in if they are good enough |
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They must now decide which of Buckers Bridge & Goonyella they believe is the better option....I know which one I think it is.
They may decide to try again in the Irish version ,so long as the ground does not dry out. But I think this ground and distance is spot on for Goonyella ....ffs Shakalakaboomboom runs and this fellow does not , has it jumped a fence in 2 years ? |
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ATR earlier showed Lynch on Buckers Bridge and Brennan on Goonyella. Would they have jocked them up if they were just going to pull Buckers Bridge? Don't associate Brennan with a decent Aintree record but perhaps the stats suggest otherwise? Clearly Goonyella has the better chance but I can see the owners leaving things as they are. Is there a chance of anything else pulling out?
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Pedro, re the Ebor, it is actual weight carried that decides balloting. If a 3yo has an official rating of 100 and a weight of 8st 7lbs he is balloted instead of a 4yo with 8st 8lbs rated 90.
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anyone know when the cut-off is for reserves getting in? something like 10am Friday rings a bell but any better info appreciated - cheers.
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9am Friday Just So
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thanks Fabulous
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Macmanus or Gigginstown wouldn't hesitate to withdraw one to get a better fancied reserve in to a race
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Don't think he will get a run now unfortunately . It is the not knowing how he would have done that is irritating .
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Oh well , that's the end of this 'non story' .
 Can't for the life of me see why they can't have the deadline at 9 am on Saturday .....oh ffs I forgot about the newspaper sweeepstake kits.  Let's see if all 40 are still running this time tomorrow. |
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^^ can you imagine the carnage if a horse won that wasn't on the bookies quickslips
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Too many 'dead wood' runners with marks reflecting ability they no longer haveabove him .
Shakalakaboomboom , Burton Port , Across The Bay , Lion Na Bearnai , Prince De Beauchene , Golan Way ......to name six who will not be troubling the judge even for a place. I wouldn't bank on Burton Port being past it, still young & with lots of class form and came 2nd last time out. |
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Cracking first run of the season chasing home Plinth in a hurdle race....hopefully won't be number 41 this year.
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I'm going to put that first fence Becher fence fall down to the low sun.
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*extra fences
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Grand staying on 3rd in the Thystes today , possibly being beaten by the Gold Cup Winner.
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78 this year ??
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I'm guessing 71. I take it 78 is your fancy?
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won't get in from 79 ......just like last year there will be a stack of higher rated ,on the downslide horses.
None of the 6 I highlighted last year came within a mile of the money. |
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Shame he will struggle to get in again .....no doubt because of high rated past it steeplechasers just like last year.
Jumped like a stag to won on soft ground today , would be a serious player on similar ground. |
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it would be favourite in my book if it got in, but it won't
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Trainers son has stated it won't run.
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Trainer said it wouldn't get in. He's probably right but I would expect them to leave the horse in at the second forfeit stage just in case.
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No way would he be fav.Goon is only a bet if getting soft going.
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Number 56 now ....with his new rating after Midlands Grand National romp he would be in the 40 no problem.......load of old has beens above him still on ludicrous ratings ,again.
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