TIDAL BAY

Place chance defo,but i think yesterdays race highlighted why he won't win the GN.
Massive task off top weight yesterday,even bigger task at Aintree.

Depends on what the handicapper does and Long Run is still an intended runner. On official ratings if both run he would get in with 11-05 with Long Run on 11-10.  Not impossible and the handicapper has a habit now of making it a bit easier for top weights, but he'll have a job on this year justifying it.

Much as I love Tidal Bay - can't see a 13 year old winning a GN

Yes, but he's not just any 13 year old, he's Tidal Bay

Am i right in saying that Phil Smith can give Tidal a lower mark than his rating (compressing the handicap) ,the GN is the only race this can happen.
If this is correct  then Tidal is appealing even at 13.

He would be the first Arkle winner to do the double if he manages it. What a great career this horse has.

Hope he does not run, because if he does and anything happens to him then we will have the 2012 post race turmoil all over again

Phil Smith ridiculously gave Tidal Bay 9 pounds lower to race off last year.He was gambled in to 16/1 favourite as a result before getting injured.I remember lots of people (myself included) thinking it should have been more like 4 or 5 pounds off. If he does the same this year then 33/1 will look a great bet.I feel he will take off less from Tidal Bay this year.Also,this is a horse who is proven off top weight in class handicaps already and Phil Smith job is to make it equal,not favour the top weight.They have already squashed the handicap by making the top weight carry only 11st 10lbs.

I would rather ave it like that than a load of runners out of the handicap.
Tidal will be a few pounds well in but still a mighty task.
He is a great bet for a place tho

Cut into 14/1 by skybet on the back of that Hennessy Gold cup run. Ran on well late, obviously got the stamina as he showed in the Welsh NAtional too. 25/1 best price is still too big i'd say.

Yeh way too big
Every chance pricewise will put him up as well

Why is Tidal bay not running @ Cheltenham .... Gold Cup - World Hurdle - Festival Handicap....My opinion is that he would have a far better chance of winning - placing in those races rather than the National.... Why risk the old warrior in the National we all know top weights don't win it and to risk him in the race  is i feel wrong (God forbid if anything did) Owes Mr Wylie NOTHING and my opinion is that he should not be running in the race as he wont win and should instead be running @ Cheltenham

Now do you understand why Tidal is running.

With any luck, he's got to be in the top half dozen. With a bit of good luck he can win. 20's is a good price, and he'll be 12/1 or shorter on the day.

Tea for Three had a hard race, as did Triolo in the Gold Cup, so fingers crossed.

Personally, think he only runs well on heavy. So unless it rains a bit more between now and then an Ante Post on him is a bit iffy. Plus like its been mentioned Long Run is still down to run

While Tidal Bay is extremely well handicapped , my recollection from his run in the race a few years ago was that he didn't really take to the Aintree experience on that occasion.

I think he's the wrong horse to say that he didn't take to aintree given the way he runs.What I mean is, if coming off the bridle and making hard work of it is the way you judge Tidal Bay not taking to the track then you could say that about the vast majority of tracks he has ever run at.
If a horse who normally travels gets to aintree and is off the bit or backing off fences then you can be confident they dont like the place but Tidal bay is not that sort of horse.

I think I'd much rather have Tidal Bay than Long Run in a match bet. Tidal Bay is still running really well, Long Run, regressing very quickly. A great story if he wins. Though maybe I'm too sentimental. I did back Big Bucks after all.

Still, if you can't back your favourites......

although I would love to see Tidal Bay win it's got 2 massive negatives to overcome. Top weight and 13 years old

I understand the point you are making Biscar but can you explain why Nicholls ran the horse (the year after he unseated in the National ) in the Liverpool hurdle (won by his stablemate Big Bucks ) rather than the GN before sluicing up in the Whitbread at Sandown ?

No but then I can't explain why he never ran in the gold cup this year or why in 2013 his target at the age of 12 was the world hurdle even after winning the big chase in Ireland.

In any case is there still an aintree factor, at least as regards the course,the first faller last year at the canal turn in all likelihood down to 40? horses trying to take a sharp left.
What is so different about the race now,for me just the number of runners and the extreme distance.

I think in the past the big stary fences and the clout they got if they hit one would disturb many a horse but is that still a valid factor?

Tidal Bay that unseated in the GN was Howard Johnson trained,i am sure everyone agrees he is a different horse trained by PN.

Come on Tidal, you can do it. Bring the house down and give me my best moment in HorseRacing.

I've not backed him Budd, but from a horse racing story it would be amazing.

Would be brilliant if he won, probably make me weep

When the owner mentioned he has been racing for 9 years, it makes you realise why we love national hunt.

Over the years I have backed him to win everything bar The Dunmow Flitch. He may well have gone close to winning this years Gold Cup had he been given the chance.
My worry is that they will complicate the ride.

Go on Shock,have a few bob on the ol fellow.You know it makes sense mate.

Seriously though,if ever a horse was tailor made for a Grand National its him imo.Just hope hes interested!! if he is hes a major player.

I backed him 3 year ago @ 40/1 and it was a decent bet at the time for me but alas it wasn't to be, and just can't see him doing it at 13.

Will be chuffed for everyone if he wins it though.