Why you should throw away all National stats except one!

Oops, should have said AGE stats, obviously...

As I forgot to include age in the title, will also discuss two other stats I believe aren't relevant...

The Mordin UR stat:  No horse except Bindaree has unseated rider in previous 17 starts and gone on to win.  Why 17 is so important I have no idea other than some serious backfitting?  There may have been some truth in the stat historically, maybe not, but the rebuilding of the core of the fences this year means we can now ignore it pretty safely IMO. 

The second season chaser stat is also a slight red herring IMO.  Lord Gyllene (technically a novice when he won!) and Bindaree both failed that test and neither were fluke winners.  Both however passed experience tests with 10+ starts and 3+ wins and both met the stat of class 2 win or first 3 in a class 1 at 26f+.   While I agree Teaforthree is probably badly handicapped, don't throw him out based on false stats!!   The stats that count are 9 chases or more (to include the outside chance of another Miinnehoma) 3 chase wins or more.  At least 1 handicap chase win is usual too though Bindaree for one didn't have one.  That could be held against Teaforthree.   

Some help here if possible, can anyone recall a winner of the race who hadn't won 3 or more chases?

the lack of a handicap win is a bit of red herring imo.

Virtually every horse who qualifies for the min 3 chase win stats has probably won a a handicap and that is probably a more relevant stat, together with whether they have won in a big field or not.

Teaforthree has only run in 4 hcap chases inc touched off in a Welsh National. If trends followers want to dismiss him on that basis, that's going well over the top in terms of going with rationale behind the stats rather than just the stats themselves

the age stat is a self fulfilling prophecy in that the majority of 8yos or under don't have the relevant chase experience to cope with a race like the National and / or not developed the requisite stamina which generally comes with age.

13yos+ are obviously well past their peak, so again would suggest that it is not the age stat itself that is important, its the chasing experience / stamina / retained ability factors that are more important factors.

The second season chaser failure stat has some merit in that if horses have acquired the requisite experience, they have probably had too many races in a short enough time and not necessarily been targetted at the National. And a "target" race it most certainly is - very unlikely that most winners had been asked to put up a peak performance within the last 3 or 4 months, but trained for one day in April

so how many can we rule out please?

Yes Pedrobob is probably lack of experience with young horses, agree the lack of a handicap chase win is also probably a red herring. 

Eliminations: Just Saint Are on age basis subject to fact he fails the experience test.

On the number of runs and wins the following all have either not enough chases or not enough chase wins:
Join Together35    
Colbert Station62    
On His Own46    
Cappa Bleu    
Oscar Time    
Lost Glory    
Saint Are
Quiscover Fontaine    
Becauseicouldntsee    
Harry The Viking    
Mr Moonshine
Ninetieth Minute   
Major Malarkey
Soll
Viking Blond    
Pentiffic
Gullible Gordon

Other key pointers for me:  Have mentioned before that nearly all national winners have solid form at 26f+ (using Racing Post distances) - either won a class 2 or first 3 in a class 1.
The horses who meet this stat are:
Imperial Commander
What A Friend
Big Fella Thanks
Seabass
Ballabriggs
Sunnyhillboy
Teaforthree
Join Together
Balthazar King
Cappa Bleu
Oscar Time
Chicago Grey
Mumbles Head
Auroras Encore
Any Currency
Viking Blond
Gullible Gordon

of those 17, 4 fail the experience test - Join Together, Gullible Gordon, Cappa Bleu and Join Together
leaves a long list of;
Imperial Commander
What A Friend
Big Fella Thanks
Seabass
Ballabriggs
Sunnyhillboy
Teaforthree
Balthazar King
Oscar Time
Chicago Grey
Mumbles Head
Auroras Encore
Any Currency

BFT only finally passed the stamina/class test in the Beecher and he failed to get home has he has in several nationals so I'm willing to knock him out too.  Ballabriggs and Oscar Time have not shown good only form recently for me and look on the downgrade, Aurora Encore and Mumbles Head don't look good enough and are also struggling for form. What A Friend and Chicago Grey have recent falls - no recent winner had fallen within 2 years other than in a previous grand national. 

That leaves a short list6;
Imperial Commander 
Seabass
Sunnyhillboy
Teaforthree
Balthazar King 
Any Currency

Handicapping and class wise Imperial Commander comes out best.  Teaforthree look made for the race but isn't that well handicapped.  Balthazar King is versatile and still improving but has quite an absence to overcome.  Any Currency is a live outsider.  Prefer Sunnyhillboy to Seabass from last year's race both have quite a bit to do at the weights though.

just a footnote, Balthazar King's record off a break of 3 months or more is 1211111...

I really fancy the top 2 of those, but the best way to go about that is knock Imperial Commander out, as he fell at Liverpool 2 years ago, abeit over the traditional fences, but he also carries top weight. When did a top weight last win the National. Red Rum I would think.
So back the other 5 and hope Any Currency wins, as that will be the longest price

I'd be hestiant to knock out Cappa Bleu on experience given he's completed the course,placing in the process. How much more experience do you need?

Experience of winning races?  Plodding round and going past a few beaten horses doesn't make you competitive.

Cri****, no way am I knocking IC out, how many top weights were rated anywhere 185 at their peak?  Top weight stat means nothing to me anyway, with an average of around 36/37 runners in the race, even allowing for occasional joint top weights you would only expect a top weight to win on average every 25-30 years?   Two won in the 70's, Red Rum and L'Escargot.  Two in less than 40 years is not a negative for something that only applies to 3-4% of runners.

Can't believe these nannying t-wunts won't even allow your name cric nut

But given horses who don't have much experience don't do well in the national, surely it was a good run on only his 7th start and can improve for the experience? The horse he finished behind last ran well at Cheltenham.

But still only has head in front twice, he's not for me, think he will place again but not win.

Cappa Bleu won a few point to points.

I'm willing to use point to points to help overlook up his low number of runs but not to count them as wins for this purpose.  He is probably the safest place bet in the race but can't see him winning.

Was tempted to say this thread is slightly misguided !!but only because I think you may have said it on another thread,lol.
So I wont,instead ill just say I think you have been up to many hours,posting at 6 am ???.

Quote "of those 17, 4 fail the experience test - Join Together, Gullible Gordon, Cappa Bleu and Join Together"

Notice anything wrong with this comment ?
I hate doing things like that,you suss a good bit of useful info and make a right c u N T of it posting,lol.

Yes I left Gullible Gordon in as second reserve by accident instead of Mortimers Cross, neither were remotely on my radar so wasn't relevant to me :)  I wasn't up at 6am, am not in the UK :)

Thread says age doesn't matter basically, other than the extremes, also weight carried doesn't matter just whether well handicapped or not.  For me experience matters, jumping matters, ability to deal with a big field matters and proof of stamina at high class matters.   I set tests that pinpoint the right type of horse rather than look at a few hit or miss trends.   Hope that helps.

Ok adding Cappa Bleu to my shortlist, if I give him half a run for each point to point and half a win for each ptp win he would have the equivalent of 12 runs 4 wins.  His run at Ascot last time reads really well and I just watched it and can see him doing well.

Cappa Bleu has a jockey on board with an awful Aintree record, btw.

Thread says age doesn't matter basically, other than the extremes, also weight carried doesn't matter just whether well handicapped or not.

Would disagree with the "weight carried doesn't matter angle. Every pound over around 11-05 / 06 is crippling imo. Probably like having to give the others another 10 length start for each extra lb.

Laws of physics and history of the race say otherwise pedrobob, lots of horses run well with big weights, effect is nothing like 10x

Jockeys are something I give no more than a glance to to be honest Srich, they are something that the crowd over factor into prices so not a variable of great interest to me.  Moloney has a fine record in the race by my reckoning, nursing an inexperienced Cappa Bleu into a place last year in spite of being hampered and three times getting State Of Play into the frame even though that horse was really way too small to be jumping round Aintree.

agree they run well, thieves, but they don't win

Doesn't mean they can't win, most of them have just been badly handicapped.