Grand National
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Ran a race full of promise LTO off higher handicap mark than his National mark. Finished 3rd without being given a hard race in 17 runner Leinster National worth £21000 to the winer and will be raised in the handicap for that run. Was fav for the Irish Grand National and finished 4th in 2009. This year he seems to have been prepared for 1 race and that is the National. Had a spin over hurdles than finished close up to Prince Du Bechene and Sea Bass when behind Roi Du Mee 9ib better off for 2 1/4 lengths with Sea Bass. The market is starting to wake up to this horse's chance and is now only 25-1 having been 40-1 a few days ago. The only negative is he sometimes makes mistakes. I have backed him for mildmay course chases in previous years at the Aintree Festival and he has spoilt his chances with mistakes. Whilst Cappa Bleu is the most obvious bet in the race surely Rare Bob is the best value
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Rare Bob has only fallen once in 28 chase starts and that was an UR when looking likely to give Prince De Beauchene 13lbs and a beating 2 years ago at Aintree on the Mildmay course. He was brought down in the National last year and that can happen to any horse. Looks like it's been laid out for this and must have a chance and represents value for me. Good luck.
Jumped around well in the Beecher last ssn. Was on him for the sweep last year, have him backed for a bit less this. Biggest worry would be if they overwater- needs decent ground to show his best.
I've thrown out the stat that showed horses who have unseated do badly here since they have now rebuilt the fences with a softer core. My concern with his horse is his poor record over 26f+ - has weakened towards the end of several races including the Beecher, the Whitbread and when 4th in the Irish national.
I can see your doubt, but the Beecher was Heavy and he had top weight of 11-10 and it was also heavy at Sandown for the Whitbread and he was carrying over 11st also. He did fade in the Irish National 2009 but was giving a stone to 2nd and 3rd and 7lbs to the winner and was still 20L clear of the 6th home. Is he bomb proof? No, but on favoured fast ground and only 10-06 on his back, I'll take my chance.
He is well handicapped,he jumped well when completing the course before and the likely decent ground now will defo help him.Can he stay well enough to win?I very much doubt it,though i expect a great run for your money for a long way.
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