Grand National
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Grand National Analysis Judo Style 2013
Introduction
Back in February, when the weights were released, I built my usual 'Mordin Style' spreadsheet for the National and I have been updating it ever since as runners completed their preparations. I initially included the original trend of 'not French bred' but then also had a look at the same data with the 'French bred' column removed. It didn't make much difference except a couple moved up because they are French bred. With Mon Mome and Neptune Collonges both winning in recent years I think it was entirely reasonable to knock the French thing on the head.
I actually spent a lot of time throughout the period between the announcement of the weights and Cheltenham Festival doing several other things to help my ante post betting. I looked at each entrant and studied their lifetime career to see if I could spot ones which seem to have been aimed at the race from early in their career (and looking for markers that indicate that was always the plan) and I spent a lot of time analysing handicap performances to find horses whose OR underestimates their peak performance.
I've also been updating for non runners and new information as we've gone along and ended up with a spreadsheet that looks like this. The horses are marked out of 13. (there were others like The Package who scored highly but is now a non runner – they have been left out)
Top of the Spreadsheet
Sunnyhillboy 11
Bostons Angel 11
Cappa Bleu 11
Oscar Time 11
Quiscover Fontaine 10.5
Seabass 10
Becauseicouldntsee 10
Auroras Encore 10
Balthazar King 9.5
Saint Are 9.5
Chicago Grey 9.5
Rare Bob 9.5
Imperial Commander 9
Big Fella Thanks 9
Teaforthree 9
Poker de Sivola 9
Lost Glory 8.5
Swing Bill 8.5
Backstage 8.5
On His Own 8.5
Everything else on the sheet scored 8 or less and I have eliminated them from consideration for betting purposes. Of course, that does not mean they can't or won't win just that I am not betting them.
Eliminations Based on Key trends
Even at twenty runners the short list is far too long so I have applied some key trends to help cut it down to a more manageable size.
Firstly, I will eliminate all that are currently novices or raced as a novice in the previous season. This eliminates Saint Are and Teaforthree from the list and also picks up Colbert Station, Join Together and some others.
Becauseicouldntsee has failed both the tests for 'won at 3 miles' and the 'won at 3 miles 3 furlong OR placed 1,2,3,4 in a National' and that is enough to eliminate him.
I am going to be very strict on age and only consider backing horses aged 9, 10 or 11 which means I eliminate Lost Glory, Imperial Commander and Oscar Time fall outside this range
I have set a minimum handicap mark of 137 below which I eliminate all the runners so Backstage and Poker de Sivola are dismissed
I also have a strong belief, despite Neptune Collonges winning last year, that National types should be lightly raced. To get a mark in the spreadsheet they needed to have raced 15 times or less over fences however in order to be eliminated I think the ceiling should be higher so I have set it at less than 20 races. Rare Bob, Big Fella Thanks, Chicago Grey and Swing Bill are all eliminated at this stage.
Final Short List
Sunnyhillboy
Boston's Angel
Cappa Bleu
Quiscover Fontaine
Seabass
Auroras Encore
Balthazar King
On His Own
Comments of the Short List Horses
Sunnyhillboy: was desperately unlucky not to win the race in 2012 and could well run very well again; however, off a 10lb higher mark and with a less than ideal preparation I doubt very much I will be backing him this year and I have not in the ante post market. 0Lbs in hand on Hcp analysis
Boston's Angel: a Grade 1 winner 3 times as a novice, placed at the Cheltenham Festival in the Cross Country this year. Considering he is joint top of the spreadsheet he is a huge price at 85. He definitely runs and is well worth having on your side. Has run 6lbs better than his OR in the past.
Cappa Bleu: a very strong candidate having finished 4th in the race last year and yet gets in on a 2lb lower mark. If you haven't I suggest you watch the race and look out for him being badly hampered and losing lots of ground and momentum during the race when avoiding a faller. Stayed on very well and I expect him to go very close. Certainly weighted to reverse form with the two that finished ahead last year. Excellent prep run showing his well being and OR some 9lb lower than peak effort.
Quiscover Fontaine: very interesting horse who ran 4th in the same Irish National (when just 7yo) as Sunnyhillboy in 2011 (which is what switched me on to SHB last year) and now 14lb better off for 4.5 lengths. Clearly been campaigned with the National in mind as no runs allowed that could have caused his mark to rise. Looks completely plotted up, ran in the race in 2012 when he fell at the 17th, approximately half way. Given how close he got to SHB in the Irish you would have he would have got quite close had he stood up. 11Lbs ahead of OR on hcp analysis.
Seabass: ran a cracker in last year's race and now runs off 5lb higher. Will probably run well again, OR 7lb lower than peak performance. Seems a bit obvious and I only have him in a small green
Auroras Encore: ran a very creditable second off 6lb higher in last year's Scottish National and if reproducing that effort would be dangerous. I have backed him ante post at 220 to 160 and he is still backable at current odds.
Balthazar King: been running well in Cross Country races, likes good ground and is a bold front runner. Likely to give a good account
On His Own: red hot favourite for the race, going well when falling in 2012, since won very nicely in ahurdle on only subsequent start. Very unusual to go into a National with only one run in 12 months and that over hurdles. He is very short in the betting for such a profile
Betting Advice
Unless you are already on at good odds I don't see there is any value in backing the favourite. Yes, he might have lots in hand however he is very short and I could not recommend him.
I was devastated when Sunnyhillboy got nutted on the line last year and I will be even more gutted if he wins this year. However, I really don't think he can win off 10lb higher with a poor prep and he cannot be recommended.
This leaves me with 6 to consider. Seabass did not really seem to see it out last year and is higher in the weights. He will surely struggle to confirm the form with Cappa Bleu and he is passed over.
Let's have a look at the current prices:
Boston's Angel : 90 / 100
Cappa Bleu : 13 / 13.5
Quiscover Fontaine : 70 / 90
Balthazar King: 26 / 27
Auroras Encore: 130 / 140
Clearly Cappa Bleu is the most strongly fancied in the market and I have no doubt he will give a tremendous run for your money. Make sure you have him onside.
However, I strongly believe that QUISCOVER FONTAINE represents massive value at the current price. I believe he has been prepared specifically for the race ever since running 4th in the Irish National. He is of course owned by JP McManus and I think it has been a long term plot. We know the form is outstandingly good because Sunnyhillboy (also owned by JP) went and hacked up at Cheltenham then was touched off in the National. Quiscover Fontaine is fully 14lbs better off with Sunnyhillboy for a 4 and a half length beating. I suspect there might well be an almighty plunge on the horse and my advice is to get as much on at the price as you can afford to lose and be prepared to back and lay it all the way in if the plunge starts. This would then allow you to green up.
I also recommend getting Boston's Angel into a very good green number as he is joint top rated on my spreadsheet yet is 90 to back. £50 would be winning you over £4400. Seems a massive price to me.
I would also get a small amount on Auroras Encore and Balthazar King as they won't cost too much.
Recommendation
Back QUISCOVER FONTAINE maximum stakes
Back BOSTON'S ANGEL half maximum stakes
Back Balthazar King, Auroras Encore and Cappa Bleu moderate stakes so they give you a reasonable win
Introduction
Back in February, when the weights were released, I built my usual 'Mordin Style' spreadsheet for the National and I have been updating it ever since as runners completed their preparations. I initially included the original trend of 'not French bred' but then also had a look at the same data with the 'French bred' column removed. It didn't make much difference except a couple moved up because they are French bred. With Mon Mome and Neptune Collonges both winning in recent years I think it was entirely reasonable to knock the French thing on the head.
I actually spent a lot of time throughout the period between the announcement of the weights and Cheltenham Festival doing several other things to help my ante post betting. I looked at each entrant and studied their lifetime career to see if I could spot ones which seem to have been aimed at the race from early in their career (and looking for markers that indicate that was always the plan) and I spent a lot of time analysing handicap performances to find horses whose OR underestimates their peak performance.
I've also been updating for non runners and new information as we've gone along and ended up with a spreadsheet that looks like this. The horses are marked out of 13. (there were others like The Package who scored highly but is now a non runner – they have been left out)
Top of the Spreadsheet
Sunnyhillboy 11
Bostons Angel 11
Cappa Bleu 11
Oscar Time 11
Quiscover Fontaine 10.5
Seabass 10
Becauseicouldntsee 10
Auroras Encore 10
Balthazar King 9.5
Saint Are 9.5
Chicago Grey 9.5
Rare Bob 9.5
Imperial Commander 9
Big Fella Thanks 9
Teaforthree 9
Poker de Sivola 9
Lost Glory 8.5
Swing Bill 8.5
Backstage 8.5
On His Own 8.5
Everything else on the sheet scored 8 or less and I have eliminated them from consideration for betting purposes. Of course, that does not mean they can't or won't win just that I am not betting them.
Eliminations Based on Key trends
Even at twenty runners the short list is far too long so I have applied some key trends to help cut it down to a more manageable size.
Firstly, I will eliminate all that are currently novices or raced as a novice in the previous season. This eliminates Saint Are and Teaforthree from the list and also picks up Colbert Station, Join Together and some others.
Becauseicouldntsee has failed both the tests for 'won at 3 miles' and the 'won at 3 miles 3 furlong OR placed 1,2,3,4 in a National' and that is enough to eliminate him.
I am going to be very strict on age and only consider backing horses aged 9, 10 or 11 which means I eliminate Lost Glory, Imperial Commander and Oscar Time fall outside this range
I have set a minimum handicap mark of 137 below which I eliminate all the runners so Backstage and Poker de Sivola are dismissed
I also have a strong belief, despite Neptune Collonges winning last year, that National types should be lightly raced. To get a mark in the spreadsheet they needed to have raced 15 times or less over fences however in order to be eliminated I think the ceiling should be higher so I have set it at less than 20 races. Rare Bob, Big Fella Thanks, Chicago Grey and Swing Bill are all eliminated at this stage.
Final Short List
Sunnyhillboy
Boston's Angel
Cappa Bleu
Quiscover Fontaine
Seabass
Auroras Encore
Balthazar King
On His Own
Comments of the Short List Horses
Sunnyhillboy: was desperately unlucky not to win the race in 2012 and could well run very well again; however, off a 10lb higher mark and with a less than ideal preparation I doubt very much I will be backing him this year and I have not in the ante post market. 0Lbs in hand on Hcp analysis
Boston's Angel: a Grade 1 winner 3 times as a novice, placed at the Cheltenham Festival in the Cross Country this year. Considering he is joint top of the spreadsheet he is a huge price at 85. He definitely runs and is well worth having on your side. Has run 6lbs better than his OR in the past.
Cappa Bleu: a very strong candidate having finished 4th in the race last year and yet gets in on a 2lb lower mark. If you haven't I suggest you watch the race and look out for him being badly hampered and losing lots of ground and momentum during the race when avoiding a faller. Stayed on very well and I expect him to go very close. Certainly weighted to reverse form with the two that finished ahead last year. Excellent prep run showing his well being and OR some 9lb lower than peak effort.
Quiscover Fontaine: very interesting horse who ran 4th in the same Irish National (when just 7yo) as Sunnyhillboy in 2011 (which is what switched me on to SHB last year) and now 14lb better off for 4.5 lengths. Clearly been campaigned with the National in mind as no runs allowed that could have caused his mark to rise. Looks completely plotted up, ran in the race in 2012 when he fell at the 17th, approximately half way. Given how close he got to SHB in the Irish you would have he would have got quite close had he stood up. 11Lbs ahead of OR on hcp analysis.
Seabass: ran a cracker in last year's race and now runs off 5lb higher. Will probably run well again, OR 7lb lower than peak performance. Seems a bit obvious and I only have him in a small green
Auroras Encore: ran a very creditable second off 6lb higher in last year's Scottish National and if reproducing that effort would be dangerous. I have backed him ante post at 220 to 160 and he is still backable at current odds.
Balthazar King: been running well in Cross Country races, likes good ground and is a bold front runner. Likely to give a good account
On His Own: red hot favourite for the race, going well when falling in 2012, since won very nicely in ahurdle on only subsequent start. Very unusual to go into a National with only one run in 12 months and that over hurdles. He is very short in the betting for such a profile
Betting Advice
Unless you are already on at good odds I don't see there is any value in backing the favourite. Yes, he might have lots in hand however he is very short and I could not recommend him.
I was devastated when Sunnyhillboy got nutted on the line last year and I will be even more gutted if he wins this year. However, I really don't think he can win off 10lb higher with a poor prep and he cannot be recommended.
This leaves me with 6 to consider. Seabass did not really seem to see it out last year and is higher in the weights. He will surely struggle to confirm the form with Cappa Bleu and he is passed over.
Let's have a look at the current prices:
Boston's Angel : 90 / 100
Cappa Bleu : 13 / 13.5
Quiscover Fontaine : 70 / 90
Balthazar King: 26 / 27
Auroras Encore: 130 / 140
Clearly Cappa Bleu is the most strongly fancied in the market and I have no doubt he will give a tremendous run for your money. Make sure you have him onside.
However, I strongly believe that QUISCOVER FONTAINE represents massive value at the current price. I believe he has been prepared specifically for the race ever since running 4th in the Irish National. He is of course owned by JP McManus and I think it has been a long term plot. We know the form is outstandingly good because Sunnyhillboy (also owned by JP) went and hacked up at Cheltenham then was touched off in the National. Quiscover Fontaine is fully 14lbs better off with Sunnyhillboy for a 4 and a half length beating. I suspect there might well be an almighty plunge on the horse and my advice is to get as much on at the price as you can afford to lose and be prepared to back and lay it all the way in if the plunge starts. This would then allow you to green up.
I also recommend getting Boston's Angel into a very good green number as he is joint top rated on my spreadsheet yet is 90 to back. £50 would be winning you over £4400. Seems a massive price to me.
I would also get a small amount on Auroras Encore and Balthazar King as they won't cost too much.
Recommendation
Back QUISCOVER FONTAINE maximum stakes
Back BOSTON'S ANGEL half maximum stakes
Back Balthazar King, Auroras Encore and Cappa Bleu moderate stakes so they give you a reasonable win
Show More
I wondered if it was you Judo on the other place! Nice write up. Completely at odds with my evaluation, but wouldn't it be a boring place if everyone had the same opinion.
Good luck.
Good luck.
thing is JOCI this is a PROVEN method that has worked many times including short listing Mon Mome, how many years have you applied your method to the National mate?
the novices and second season chasers you have selected are instant dismissals for me, they rarely win
the novices and second season chasers you have selected are instant dismissals for me, they rarely win
Fair enough, but this puts me off Quiscover Fontaine:
1 not in the right weight range
2 doesn't have the requisite handicap chase profile
3 not in the right OR range
4 French bred - ok, there have been a couple of recent winners, but that doesn't represent a 'sea-change' for me
5 been unplaced on his last 5 or so runs
6 not won a listed / graded chase or a 'high value' chase - is he classy enough?
7 not won over 3 miles +
8 has not been running to the 'expected' RPR level in his recent runs
9 hasn't won in a 'large field' chase
10 6 out of 7 of his wins have been at no further than 2m 1f
11 has fallen in 2 out of his last 9 races
The horse just seems to have so many negative to overcome.
1 not in the right weight range
2 doesn't have the requisite handicap chase profile
3 not in the right OR range
4 French bred - ok, there have been a couple of recent winners, but that doesn't represent a 'sea-change' for me
5 been unplaced on his last 5 or so runs
6 not won a listed / graded chase or a 'high value' chase - is he classy enough?
7 not won over 3 miles +
8 has not been running to the 'expected' RPR level in his recent runs
9 hasn't won in a 'large field' chase
10 6 out of 7 of his wins have been at no further than 2m 1f
11 has fallen in 2 out of his last 9 races
The horse just seems to have so many negative to overcome.
I;m on at 120/1 though which makes up for it. A lot of what you say is easily forgiven once you see what they have done since he ran 4th in the Irish National. I have no doubt if Willie Mullins was desperate to get a win at 3 miles into him that they could have found any number of races. But they chose not to expose him, so they have kept him deliberately at shorter distances and hurdles so as to not allow the handicapper to put him up. Do you deny the form with Sunnyhillboy is strong? 14lb better for 4.5 lengths with a horse that hacked up at Cheltenham and got beat a nose in the National. 120/1??????????
No I don't deny the form with SHB. 120/1 allows you plenty of leeway to back and lay admittedly. Unlikely winner for me though.
If he wins, will send you a bottle of your tipple!
If he wins, will send you a bottle of your tipple!
Everything else on the sheet scored 8 or less and I have eliminated them from consideration for betting purposes. Of course, that does not mean they can't or won't win just that I am not betting them. And will be smugly dismissing anyone who suggests backing them.
FYP
FYP
Ironic that Teaforthree has 10 Chases under rules , has never fallen, has won over 4 miles at the Chelteham festival, runner up in the Welsh National yet the stats point to a horse that has fallen twice, has 10 Chases under rules and has never won beyond 20 furlongs.
Which horse out of the two has the proven stamina and has jumped the most fences? and which one looks the safer jumper? and which one has proven himself to be 10lb superior?
Now then, which one has been crossed off the list?
It`s a strange world.
Which horse out of the two has the proven stamina and has jumped the most fences? and which one looks the safer jumper? and which one has proven himself to be 10lb superior?
Now then, which one has been crossed off the list?
It`s a strange world.
Teaforthree was in my top 20 but I am choosing to dismiss - not only because he was a novice last year but because of his handicap mark which is ridiculous 151 is way too high. Look at how far he got beat in the Hennessey off 144. He gets 7lb from Imperial Commander (also on list), imagine what IC would have done in a Hennessey off 151. No comparison. Teaforthree should be giving about 3lbs to Harry the Viking by my estimation and he;s giving 11
notice you don't mention price
notice you don't mention price
nice write up judo...as always between yourself and joci you both put a lot of effort in so fair play to you.
well really think quiscover is underestimated myself at the odds and was hard on the snaffle when he tipped up last year having jumped well till that point...
he has been plotted up again by shrewd connections with the mark well and truly preserved and at least in this race the handbrake will be released as has been firmly on in all his races since the race last year...
well really think quiscover is underestimated myself at the odds and was hard on the snaffle when he tipped up last year having jumped well till that point...
he has been plotted up again by shrewd connections with the mark well and truly preserved and at least in this race the handbrake will be released as has been firmly on in all his races since the race last year...
Good write up judo.
I let sentimentality get in the way of my selections which helped last year. My 5 main bets are
Imperial Commander
Across The Bay
Joncol
Bostons Angel
Forpadydeplasterer
With little plays on
Lion Na Bearnai
The Rainbow Hunter
Major Malarkey.
I let sentimentality get in the way of my selections which helped last year. My 5 main bets are
Imperial Commander
Across The Bay
Joncol
Bostons Angel
Forpadydeplasterer
With little plays on
Lion Na Bearnai
The Rainbow Hunter
Major Malarkey.
Alkeyhole, where have you seen that Bostons Angel is out?
I can't find anything.
I can't find anything.
Typical had a decent bet on bostons last night,now a n/r bet it on here instead of the bookies hey ho.its defo a n/r makbe-diva just announced on atr.....
From ATR
"The eight horses to come out were Prince de Beauchene, Bob Lingo, Tofino Bay, Lion Na Bearnai, Bostons Angel, Beshabar, Wyck Hill and Magnanimity."
"The eight horses to come out were Prince de Beauchene, Bob Lingo, Tofino Bay, Lion Na Bearnai, Bostons Angel, Beshabar, Wyck Hill and Magnanimity."
From ATR
"The eight horses to come out were Prince de Beauchene, Bob Lingo, Tofino Bay, Lion Na Bearnai, Bostons Angel, Beshabar, Wyck Hill and Magnanimity."
"The eight horses to come out were Prince de Beauchene, Bob Lingo, Tofino Bay, Lion Na Bearnai, Bostons Angel, Beshabar, Wyck Hill and Magnanimity."
7 not won over 3 miles +
10 6 out of 7 of his wins have been at no further than 2m 1f
Easy for me to knock a bet when i havent done a fraction as much research but doesnt sound like a national winner to me at any price. Good luck though
10 6 out of 7 of his wins have been at no further than 2m 1f
Easy for me to knock a bet when i havent done a fraction as much research but doesnt sound like a national winner to me at any price. Good luck though
Last years fallers won't be winni g this year.
Look at how far he (Teaforthree) got beat in the Hennessey off 144.
Staying on though Jud and imagine another mile. QUISCOVER FONTAINE is the price he is because he has never shown any stamina unless of course you think kept on one pace in a slowly run Irish Grand National cuts the mustard.
If you look at the bigger priced winners in the past 20 years then you soon see that Mon Mome, Silver Birch, Royal Athlete..had all won beyond 3 miles and had proven stamina. These stats are striking.
Staying on though Jud and imagine another mile. QUISCOVER FONTAINE is the price he is because he has never shown any stamina unless of course you think kept on one pace in a slowly run Irish Grand National cuts the mustard.
If you look at the bigger priced winners in the past 20 years then you soon see that Mon Mome, Silver Birch, Royal Athlete..had all won beyond 3 miles and had proven stamina. These stats are striking.
Good write up Judo - thanks. Have done Rare Bob, Auroras Encore, Imperial Commander and Lost Glory. All in your long shortlist plus a couple of others who look unlikely to get in.
Auroras Encore has run in 23 chases so according to your methodology you should have eliminated him, shouldn't you?
James you have been a member for 10 years yet this is your first forum reply.
Man you have discipline.
Man you have discipline.
Well spotted. Never bothered looking at the forum until now but seeing as I've just doubled my post count, am kind of enjoying it, and have such a lot of ground to make up, maybe I should become a regular.
FWIW I think Quiscover Fontaine is an interesting horse at the price.
But what makes anyone predict that there will be 'an almighty plunge' when he went off at 50/1 / 96.86BSP in last years race?
Get on 'as much as you can afford to lose'? Eh, no thanks.
Also, things like being very strict on age are silly. That's like the way people used to knock French breds.
Pure trends people do this without any great reason behind it. Silly.
But what makes anyone predict that there will be 'an almighty plunge' when he went off at 50/1 / 96.86BSP in last years race?
Get on 'as much as you can afford to lose'? Eh, no thanks.
Also, things like being very strict on age are silly. That's like the way people used to knock French breds.
Pure trends people do this without any great reason behind it. Silly.
126/1 BFSP, WD !, must have been quite a reasonable win 
first two finishers in the final short list of 4 (Boston's Angel did not run)
I backed Auroras Encore and Cappa Bleu, too, thanks to Rick! 
cheers rick.bet you enjoyed that.gave it everyone. Party Time
Thanks Rick, had Tea For Three too, but only a very tiny bet on him.
Rick you are an absolute star!
Just heard all horses are ok. What a perfect result.
Rick you are an absolute star!
Just heard all horses are ok. What a perfect result.
Well done judo. Glad too you didn't put me off Teaforthree.....decent place bet at >4/1.
oh and Oscar Time was joint top rated on the spreadsheet initially but I dismissed him as a 12 yo, he was 4th
Well done Jud, If you had shown some common sense with T43 you could have had the tricast
I was looking for the winner and to have big bets and I was right that T43 was not the winner
but if you look he does appear on my 'long' short list
but if you look he does appear on my 'long' short list
I know Jud but how about next year you look for a short list for combo tricasts/quads lol..
You could have had a corker this year.
You could have had a corker this year.
I see I have won much more than I expected. I must be working my bets out incorrectly 
Rick, I'm going out now. I'll pm you tomorrow and ask you to explain a few things to me, if you wouldn't mind.
Have a great evening and thanks again xx
Rick, I'm going out now. I'll pm you tomorrow and ask you to explain a few things to me, if you wouldn't mind.
Have a great evening and thanks again
xx
Sorry im a bit late joining the party....THANKS judo fantastic work it pulled me outta the mire EXCELLENT work really looking foward to your next coup........
you're v welcome
I do send out these documents earlier to friends and family and other punting mates
if you want to be involved just PM me with an e-mail address
although I have to say most of my heavy punting is on NH racing so it is likely to quieter on the flat
I do send out these documents earlier to friends and family and other punting mates
if you want to be involved just PM me with an e-mail address
although I have to say most of my heavy punting is on NH racing so it is likely to quieter on the flat
Bloody synthetics picking all these big priced winners 
Excellent work and well rewarded for your efforts,Congratulations
Excellent work and well rewarded for your efforts,Congratulations
Never a problem mate,Be well and have a great evening.
Good work JR...you deserve your rewards (and I hope you collected heavily and did the F/C) even though I despise 99% of betting trends 
there was a lot of background knowledge and judgement and handicap assessment involved - hence dismissing Sunnyhillboy and Seabass who also were at the top of the spreadsheet - indeed Sunnyhillboy was joint top rated
thanks, was robbed last year, have not won as much as I would have last year but still very nice
Congrats Judo; i'm interested in your workings if you willing to send. I've PM'd my email address.
Judo, well done, congrats, etc etc. But how come you didn't eliminate Auroras Encore?
From your post: "I also have a strong belief, despite Neptune Collonges winning last year, that National types should be lightly raced. To get a mark in the spreadsheet they needed to have raced 15 times or less over fences however in order to be eliminated I think the ceiling should be higher so I have set it at less than 20 races. Rare Bob, Big Fella Thanks, Chicago Grey and Swing Bill are all eliminated at this stage."
Auroras Encore had raced in 23 chases before today. So, how come he made the cut? Fat finger syndrome?
From your post: "I also have a strong belief, despite Neptune Collonges winning last year, that National types should be lightly raced. To get a mark in the spreadsheet they needed to have raced 15 times or less over fences however in order to be eliminated I think the ceiling should be higher so I have set it at less than 20 races. Rare Bob, Big Fella Thanks, Chicago Grey and Swing Bill are all eliminated at this stage."
Auroras Encore had raced in 23 chases before today. So, how come he made the cut? Fat finger syndrome?
JH 
Talk about pissing on a guy's chips!
I suspect JR's had a rather good day.
Talk about pissing on a guy's chips! I suspect JR's had a rather good day.
Very well done judo!
I usually enjoy reading your thoughts which are obviously thoroughly researched.
I usually enjoy reading your thoughts which are obviously thoroughly researched.
see you all next year
research starts as soon as the weights are released in February
research starts as soon as the weights are released in February
Hate to p1ss on this "lovefest" bonfire and at the risk of further threats to have "arms and neck broken" but .......how eaxactly did Aurora Encore pass the "lightly raced" elimination stat ?
He's run 43 times, 23 over fences.
He's run 43 times, 23 over fences.
flyingbolt, I know you can handle yourself, but Mr judo would have to get past me first before any nasty bone breaking!
Cheers mate.I realised after I'd posted that this had already been mentioned but after further delving the only horse in the whole race that had run more often was Always Waining.
its like when the french stat was adjusted to suit his selection.
Does it really matter that much. Whatever the logic, he posted up the horses as a bet, so fair enough for that.
Quite right JOCI.
Both you and judo put a lot of effort into analysing races and freely give your opinions (as does another poster koikeeper who specialises in hunter chases). Nobody is obliged to accept the advice, so the carping I really don't understand.
I had a little bit on AE as judo suggested and am very grateful to him for putting it up. I certainly wouldn't have backed it otherwise.
Both you and judo put a lot of effort into analysing races and freely give your opinions (as does another poster koikeeper who specialises in hunter chases). Nobody is obliged to accept the advice, so the carping I really don't understand.
I had a little bit on AE as judo suggested and am very grateful to him for putting it up. I certainly wouldn't have backed it otherwise.
As much as he comes across like he's never had an actual conversation with another human being face to face sometimes, you can't dispute that he recommended backing the winner at triple figure prices, and backed it himself at 200+. Well done Judo.
festivalfanatic 07 Apr 13 09:26
Quite right JOCI.
Both you and judo put a lot of effort into analysing races and freely give your opinions (as does another poster koikeeper who specialises in hunter chases). Nobody is obliged to accept the advice, so the carping I really don't understand.
I had a little bit on AE as judo suggested and am very grateful to him for putting it up. I certainly wouldn't have backed it otherwise.
I liked that, 'koikeeper' and 'carping'.
Quite right JOCI.
Both you and judo put a lot of effort into analysing races and freely give your opinions (as does another poster koikeeper who specialises in hunter chases). Nobody is obliged to accept the advice, so the carping I really don't understand.
I had a little bit on AE as judo suggested and am very grateful to him for putting it up. I certainly wouldn't have backed it otherwise.
I liked that, 'koikeeper' and 'carping'.
Joci and Judo clearly put a lot of effort into their selections, and, regardless of winning or losing, I'm always interested to see their thoughts. Always slightly surprised to see their methods getting stick.
Judo's analysis of Auroras was very good, well done, and enjoyed seeing Joci's trends for the main races at Aintree.
Judo's analysis of Auroras was very good, well done, and enjoyed seeing Joci's trends for the main races at Aintree.
Does it matter ?
Well the fact is that after totally failing to pass one of HIS KEY TRENDS the winner seems to have got on his final list by mistake.After all it's the man himself who has insisted throughout that his method is to stick rigidly to HIS trends.
So yes I'd say it does matter otherwise what's the point of all that "research" ?
He might just as well stick a pin and hope for the best.
Well the fact is that after totally failing to pass one of HIS KEY TRENDS the winner seems to have got on his final list by mistake.After all it's the man himself who has insisted throughout that his method is to stick rigidly to HIS trends.
So yes I'd say it does matter otherwise what's the point of all that "research" ?
He might just as well stick a pin and hope for the best.
have to agree with Bolty.
Wd Rick on getting the winner and like others don't wish to rain on your parade. But surely your age trend clearly eliminates Aurora's Encore?
The write up on the horse doesn't explain why you left it in - and ruled out four others (including the 5th and 6th finishers) without any other consideration?
Stats and trends are all very well. But unless there is a reason behind the trend / stat, they are pointless.
You eliminated an obvious candidate and near winner in T43 on a strict 2nd season chaser rule. This is a fair enough criteria, though the reason behind it as others pointed out earlier is probably more to do with experience gained over fences, not that it's running in the National less than two years after its chase debut.
Wd Rick on getting the winner and like others don't wish to rain on your parade. But surely your age trend clearly eliminates Aurora's Encore?
The write up on the horse doesn't explain why you left it in - and ruled out four others (including the 5th and 6th finishers) without any other consideration?
Stats and trends are all very well. But unless there is a reason behind the trend / stat, they are pointless.
You eliminated an obvious candidate and near winner in T43 on a strict 2nd season chaser rule. This is a fair enough criteria, though the reason behind it as others pointed out earlier is probably more to do with experience gained over fences, not that it's running in the National less than two years after its chase debut.
[b]I liked that, 'koikeeper' and 'carping'.[/b
Wish it had been intentional
Wish it had been intentional
well done judorick he ticked a lot of boxes fair to say any winner wouldnt tick every trend and yes he had had more than 15 chase starts and he hadnt run over hurdles this season but nick mordins 13 key trends these were the only two he didnt meet 6lb lower than his scottish national 2nd gave him a big chance on spring ground but sadly even though he was on my original shortlist in february i didnt bet him
Auroras Encore is 11 so fits the age bracket perfectly - 8 and younger, plus 12 and older were eliminated
I kept Quiscover in even though he had never won over 3 miles (placed in the Irish National was good enough for me) so clearly I was being flexible in my approach and you clearly need to be in approaching races like this
I would also point out that I was focosing on my top rated runners which were (from the OP):
Sunnyhillboy 11
Bostons Angel 11 - (NON runner)
Cappa Bleu 11
Oscar Time 11
Quiscover Fontaine 10.5
Seabass 10
Becauseicouldntsee 10
Auroras Encore 10
And as I said I was against Sunnyhillboy with his bad prep and 10lb higher mark, against Seabass who I predicted would not be able to finish in front of Cappa Bleu, against Becauseicouldnt see because he had neither won at 3 miles nor placed in a National and against Oscar Time because he was 12
so that didn't leave too many at the top of my list and meant I had to keep AE onside. As I also said, I started backing him speculatively for a few quid right back in February so I couldn't realistically leave him out of calculations. I was grateful that PW tipped up Quiscover too as it helped me lay off plenty of liability.
Amazing that, having posted a short list of 4 that provided the first 2 home and a 120 BSP winner, you get grief.
Anyway, glad some people got on and thanks for the PMs people.
I kept Quiscover in even though he had never won over 3 miles (placed in the Irish National was good enough for me) so clearly I was being flexible in my approach and you clearly need to be in approaching races like this
I would also point out that I was focosing on my top rated runners which were (from the OP):
Sunnyhillboy 11
Bostons Angel 11 - (NON runner)
Cappa Bleu 11
Oscar Time 11
Quiscover Fontaine 10.5
Seabass 10
Becauseicouldntsee 10
Auroras Encore 10
And as I said I was against Sunnyhillboy with his bad prep and 10lb higher mark, against Seabass who I predicted would not be able to finish in front of Cappa Bleu, against Becauseicouldnt see because he had neither won at 3 miles nor placed in a National and against Oscar Time because he was 12
so that didn't leave too many at the top of my list and meant I had to keep AE onside. As I also said, I started backing him speculatively for a few quid right back in February so I couldn't realistically leave him out of calculations. I was grateful that PW tipped up Quiscover too as it helped me lay off plenty of liability.
Amazing that, having posted a short list of 4 that provided the first 2 home and a 120 BSP winner, you get grief.
Anyway, glad some people got on and thanks for the PMs people.
" to get a mark on the spreadsheet they needed to have raced 15 times or less over fences however in order to be eliminated I think the ceiling shall be higher so I have set it at less than 20 races"
This was part of your opening post.
Just two questions.
1.Having run in 23 chases how did Auroras Encore "get a mark on the spreadsheet" in the first place ?
2.Having run in 23 chases why wasn't he eliminated along with the 4 you did eliminate at that stage ?
Many thanks.
This was part of your opening post.
Just two questions.
1.Having run in 23 chases how did Auroras Encore "get a mark on the spreadsheet" in the first place ?
2.Having run in 23 chases why wasn't he eliminated along with the 4 you did eliminate at that stage ?
Many thanks.
apologies judo, of course Aurora's was fine on your age stat.
But it simply didn't pass the "no of races" trend.
But it simply didn't pass the "no of races" trend.
i had already backed it weeks before I wrote the piece and it was in my top 7 so could hardly not put it up
frankly the number of races trend was a convenient way of getting rid of a couple without resorting to 'I don't think it can win' arguments
anyway don't give a toss now haha it won
frankly the number of races trend was a convenient way of getting rid of a couple without resorting to 'I don't think it can win' arguments
anyway don't give a toss now haha it won
As I suspected.
Thank you for your honest answer(at last).
Thank you for your honest answer(at last).
I passed over AE because of his damn fall 2 runs ago, I might have got on on the basis of your list JR but that you had completely lost the plot with QF, who failed every single national stat I have, and didn't really look into the others further. Interestingly those that pass my main system included all the first 4 home. If I'd combined with your spreadsheet analysis I'm sure I'd have cleaned up. Excellent tipping whatever ;)
Ilnamar 01 Apr 13 01:12 Joined: 27 Dec 01 | Topic/replies: 173 | Blogger: Ilnamar's blog
Everything else on the sheet scored 8 or less and I have eliminated them from consideration for betting purposes. Of course, that does not mean they can't or won't win just that I am not betting them. And will be smugly dismissing anyone who suggests backing them.
FYP
just like to point out that the first 5 finishers all scored at least 9 out of 13, you mug
Everything else on the sheet scored 8 or less and I have eliminated them from consideration for betting purposes. Of course, that does not mean they can't or won't win just that I am not betting them. And will be smugly dismissing anyone who suggests backing them.
FYP
just like to point out that the first 5 finishers all scored at least 9 out of 13, you mug
So the final conclusion is that the trends missed the winner for the 2nd year running but you backed it on the basis of a flutter.
Well done anyway
Well done anyway
Ha ha that is so funny seeing as your the dummy that put up Lost Glory as some sort of "nearly a trends horse".
If you had done the basic trends correct,you would have had the winner and second and probably third.
If you had done the basic trends correct,you would have had the winner and second and probably third.
I thought that was consistent to be fair - it was a similar trends mock
Dog of a pick admittedly but consistent. You failed to pick 5 to beat it by the way
Dog of a pick admittedly but consistent. You failed to pick 5 to beat it by the way
I was taking the micky with my picks against it,i put up 5 who i thought did not have a hope of winning to show how stupid your selection was.
Have started building the spreadsheet today, 115 entries so lots of work to be done, will be working on this race regularly right up to the day
It worked - Mordin's stats added to his own intuition. Stop knocking it.
just excited about the National Shocks mate, takes about 10 weeks of my year
usually worth it though, remember backing Auroras at 220+ in mid February thinking 'hmm just maybe'
I remind everyone, if you compare the result of the race to the table in the OP, the first 5 home ALL scored 9 points on the spreadsheet
usually worth it though, remember backing Auroras at 220+ in mid February thinking 'hmm just maybe'
I remind everyone, if you compare the result of the race to the table in the OP, the first 5 home ALL scored 9 points on the spreadsheet
Yes it's still a great race Judo in spite of the tinkering with the fences. Will be a bit different with the weights this year, depending on what the handicapper does with Tidal Bay. Officially 168 but I reckon will give him 165 meaning horses under 140/141 will be out of the handicap proper. Anyway already on Triolo at 150, however it will fail your age stat but will take my chance. Good luck and look forward to the read.
Dropped tidal bay 8/9 lbs last year.hopefully only 4 or 5 this year.
Can't see the point of only dropping Tidal 3llbs
160-162 would still make it a huge task
160-162 would still make it a huge task
The reason I think the handicapper will drop TB only 3lb is because he put him up 5lb for his last run. We'll have to wait and see as only guessing.
first stage spreadsheet complete, only new info (plus the weights) to be added
Any selection for the National based on previous stats are now irrelevant due to massive changes made to the race conditions. It is no longer the course/race it was. More akin to a normal park course now - in actuality easier, the . 'Fences' are like hurdles topped with a few feet of soft spruce. The race has been ruined IMO.
I would still not bet on a 7 or 8 year old, or a horse that has not won a race with 10 or more runners in
Interesting read judorick well done on doing so well in 2013 will read with interest your advice this year.
I still got the 1-2 last year from 4 runners on the day so my approach clearly worked. There was a lot of reliance on assessing handicap marks as I hint at in the OP. The main point was to chop the field down to a manageable short list with a reasonable probability of containing the winner and then to hone in on the more likely winners - and a lot of that was down to judgement of the type of horse, age, handicap mark etc
I repeat: the first 5 finishers in 2013 ALL scored at least 9 on the spreadsheet so clearly those that had a traditional National prep still came to the fore despite the modifications to the fences
there may be a chance that it all unravels this year but I cannot chuck a proven method away for no good reason
I repeat: the first 5 finishers in 2013 ALL scored at least 9 on the spreadsheet so clearly those that had a traditional National prep still came to the fore despite the modifications to the fences
there may be a chance that it all unravels this year but I cannot chuck a proven method away for no good reason
I think trainers will still prep horses in the same way so the stats are still valid.
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