ACROSS THE BAY OUT.

Great I just did him last night. Small comfort that it was NRNB at least. Thought he had a great each way chance. Do you know the reason why he is out??

I don't know the exact details no but the stable staff wanted to nab a little bit of money before it went public tomorrow.

Are you sure he's out? Spoke to somebody who knows the owner of the horse earlier and he has no idea of their being any problem with the horse and he runs as far as he is concerned. Has somebody started a rumour or jumped the gun perhaps?

I've seen that conversation on twitter colldogg as I've read that blog the guy put up the other day

As far as I'm concerned, this horse is a runner until confirmed otherwise by the trainer and given that its just been matched at 48, I'd say the horse is fine

Non runner written all over it

put it this way, mccain has been tweeting last night and this morning about henry brooke being conditional of the year, mainly taking the p1ss out of him admittedly but my point is the news would be out by now and 1000/no offers the prices if wasn't running

107 quid up now wanting to back ATB at 50, 22 at 55 and 28 at 60, this horse is fine

Apparently McCain has told owner nothing wrong at all. Well done Roselier for adding some spice on a non-racing day .

Thanks Roselier, did your stable lads take my place lay at 27 too?

I very rarely come out on top in these situations but I managed to back the horse at 160, 140 and 130 win and 28 place last night, thanks from me as well !

Happy I read about these people who have got on at fancy prices now. Wish I followed suit but I'm just happy to get a run at 33/1 for 6 places. Not quite sure he's good enough to win but he should be placed if he gets round.

I remember last year when I was on Sunnyhillboy that their was a similar drift on him out all the way from about 20s to 65 a week before the race. Hope it's a good omen for Across the Bay running as well as Sunnyhillboy last year!

Also just to add, can anyone understand the disparity in prices between Cappa Bleu and Across the Bay when you look at their run at Carlisle back in November off level weights? Cappa Bleu seems to be 10/1 for staying on past well beaten horses last year. Across the bay is real value.

^couldn't agree more with that, think its a knocking good horse

Firstly, i was pleased this morning to see the price had come back (backed him straight after his latest hurdles win) , one of my savers

secondly, surely you can not use the CB piece of form literally, ATB was in fine form in coming into the race after winning at Kelso whilst CB was having his first race since last years Grand National. They were never going to knock him about on the heavy going that day.

Carlisle in November isn't terribly relevant. ATB was fit having won a few weeks earlier, Cappa is being prepared just for Aintree and would have been nowhere near wound up. Also, the ground was bottomless.

Cappa has been there and done it before. He absolutely flew home last year, and is weighted to beat the horses that finished in front of him. According to the trainer he met a lot of trouble in running and is expected to benefit from the experience this time round. A reproduction of last year's run would put him very close, and there's a good chance he can improve on it.

Across the Bay is a very nice horse and possibly is a bit under the radar, but I can understand him being the much bigger price. He has never won on anything other than soft or heavy, which he won't get. We has only won or placed once beyond 3m, in a small field, and never beyond 3m2f. On his only attempt at further, he was tailed off. There's a major stamina doubt. He has also tended to race very lazily, and to jump right, and could easily get tailed off quickly and lose interest. That said, I think he's fairly handicapped on his best form, he has a bit of class, has a big jump in him, and has run a couple of good races over hurdles at the meeting in his younger days, on goodish ground. He's a bit of a thinker and much depends what is going on between his ears, but those sort of horses sometimes do well in this race, so if it lights him up he wouldn't be without a chance. Don't be too surprised if he's pulled up on the first circuit though.

I abcked Cappa Bleu last year and ignoring any hard luck stories he was beaten 12 lengths off 147, he now finds himself rated 2lb lower, is that enough ?
Do we think the winner of this years race is going to be around 10lb worse than last years ?
Very rarely does a horse win the race having completed the course the previous year, National debutants or previous years fallers are where I look closest for clues...

I accept your points barry, I wasn't really referring to the carlisle race

Of course there are doubts about ATB (some of which I think can be argued either way tbh) but he's gunna be 40/1 would be amazing if he was that price and had OHO's credentials

Was just saying that at the prices and weights between the two then Across the bay is real value. He has decent form at Aintree and I just can't have Cappa Bleu being such a shorter price than ATB. If you look at him going over the last fence last year he was in about 9th place and it was just the none stayers he went past. Can't see it myself.

^thats what I was agreeing with, we'll get there between us

I don't hold with 1lb per length in the National horse 9, I think 1.5-2 is more realistic, so he's only got 7 or 8 to find imo. That can be one fence.

Shouldn't under estimate the affect of a higher weight in the National too. I know it's close on ratings between Seabass and Cappa Bleu but got to factor he is actually carrying a few pound over 11 stone which may make him tire more easily than last year.

Surely Cappa has the perfect weight off 10-11 ?

Yeah I've backed Cappa, I actually switched from Seabass to Cappa because of the fact I mentioned.

you should have stayed with seabass i will be amazed if cappa even gets placed just does not stay this far in my opinion

Barry M - that's a fair point, but even so this would have to be a significantly worse National than last year for Cappa Bleu to win IMO.
I still prefer to look at race debutants or last seasons fallers/UR/BD

Sorry boy wonder, Cappa was probably the strongest finisher in last year's race. He lost his position in a bit of scrimmaging out in the country, but finished like the proverbial train! (Well he ran on strongly anyway lol). Stamina is definitely not a question mark for him and has clearly been trained for the race. I am not making a case for him, but he stays longer than the mother-in-law

sorry but watch the race again he never lost any ground doesnt stay a yard past 3m

Thats bollox.
Won foxhunters chase

Yeah very unfair, also third in a Welsh National

Fact is he wasn't given a very good ride last year, was took around course and found wall of horses, given better and more prominent ride will go well. Win only though no value now in way betting. Stayed on a lot better than others in last 2furlongs . stays for me- just whether he can do it quicker than others.

Although very painfull i  have just watched last years race again,Cappa found off the bridle and stayed on.He hasn't ran in a gruelling Welsh National this season either.

Strange race that Cappa ran last year tbf. You would say based on his last run over 3m that he shouldn't really get outpaced but it did look that way. he stormedpast Ballabrigs whodoes stay the trip.

must be long odds on Moloney will hold Cappa Bleu out the back again. So why will the result be any different?

Experience? I know the horse is 11 but it was only his 7th chase start last year. Jockey may keep him a bit more handy this year.

Back to the original post, where is Roselier lately since he put me away with his ATB "scoop"

back to the original post all is well with the horse and brooke will ride him

I thought ATB looked a non stayer in the WELSH.

The Welsh National form is a myth. ATB was carrying the welterweight of 11st 12 in deep heavy ground. Teafortree who finished second was on 11st 3 when Carberry came crusing past on Moonbeg Dude. Do you not think Dapper Donald McCain ran him for that reason to ensure he was dropped a few pounds prior to the National weights camme out in early Feb.

He's a horse I keep going on and off but when I watched the Welsh he didn't seem to run like a non trier to me as was bang there until stanima came into play. Of course he could just have faded due to being undercooked but that's something we won'tknow.

Gold Cup - I suppose what I meant was that under that weight the performance he put in was as good as could have been expected. Realistially no chance under 11st 12 on that ground. Maybe Donald realised this so he ran according to expectations. I did not think he was a non-trier but got some good experience over big fences.

He has won over the Aintree fences aswell.

I take a different view,i think welsh national performance showed he probably won't be classy enough to win GN

2 words - wind op

The magic wind op

I suppose its not in the public domain whether he has had a wind op and only those connected to the horse will know for def. I can see the point of whether he is classy enough to win GN but to be placed in the first 6 with BV is good enough for me.

Welsh National and i think of Mon Mone, he went off 9/2 Fav carrying a lightweight and beaten a fair way, low and behold a few months later he wins the big one at 100/1. Can be a brutal race on bad ground for the prize winners.
I would be wary on taking the WN form at face value

Mon Mone had placed previously in a Welsh National but tbf even looking after the event I still can't find a piece of form beforehand that would have made me back him to win the national off 148.

just had a look at Mon Mome's GN result.
Cloudy Lane at topweight off 158 that day, the same as Imperial Commander this year !!!!!!!  really !!!!

Haha that's proably why the weight carried stat has goneto sh1t recently.