Grand National
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....Haven't really changed much since April and I've been backing accordingly. I'm struggling to choose an outright winner at this stage but my book consists of the following :-
Capps Bleu - obvious choice for obvious reasons
Weird Al - still too high in the handicap, I thought it was a tired fall in April.
The Package - has still got room for improvement so cannot be discounted
Sea bass - obvious choice for obvious reasons
Chicago Grey - was running a cracking race, great chance from a similar mark.
Long Run - looks as if this could suit him, worth a dabble at the price.
King Fontaine - is a good 'un, simple!
I realise that I've not really narrowed it down that much
but I'm sure the picture will become clearer over the coming months. Any advice or comments will be taken on board, serious feedback is appreciated.
JBNAY.
Capps Bleu - obvious choice for obvious reasons
Weird Al - still too high in the handicap, I thought it was a tired fall in April.
The Package - has still got room for improvement so cannot be discounted
Sea bass - obvious choice for obvious reasons
Chicago Grey - was running a cracking race, great chance from a similar mark.
Long Run - looks as if this could suit him, worth a dabble at the price.
King Fontaine - is a good 'un, simple!
I realise that I've not really narrowed it down that much
but I'm sure the picture will become clearer over the coming months. Any advice or comments will be taken on board, serious feedback is appreciated.JBNAY.
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Here's my early ante post selection...
It's an article I wrote and published on Decemeber 2nd on my website I'm creating at the moment. See if you agree or not.
As the sun continues to rise on a new jumps season, thoughts of Aintree in April seem far away. The Grand National captures the heart of the country like no other race and it’ll be interesting to see how the changes to it’s structure impact upon this love. The alteration to the distance of the race and the start being further away from the grandstand have the potential to appease those who still chip away at the event each year for being too dangerous. At it’s core though it’s still a spectacle that every man and his dog likes to try and find the winner of. Going back to work on the Monday with a smug grin adorned on ones face and cash in ones pocket is all part of it’s heritage.
While it may seem strange to seek out the winner of a race that’s still some five months away, I enjoy it. Attempting to crack the puzzle based on only a small percentage of information compared to that which shall be available come the day, is a tantalising prospect. From an ante post list longer than the race itself, step forward The Package. The Johnson/Pipe/Murphy team know just what it takes to land the huge prize, having done so recently with Comply Or Die, and this fellow has a similar profile. He put up a fantastic display back in March at the Cheltenham Festival when returning from over a year off the track to finish a gallant fourth in the JLT Handicap. That was a display of courage and class, both of which will only help come April. Returning this season he’s landed the Badger Ales Trophy in game fashion, popping his fences nicely that day and staying on well to beat the talented Michel Le Bon. The pair pulled well clear of the rest. Trainer David Pipe has indicated already that he’s a National horse and he’ll be trained with that in mind. He experienced the Aintree fences first hand when unseating there as a seven year old in Don’t Push It’s race. He’ll return next year a much wiser and stronger ten year old. Watching his races he seems very nimble and intelligent in big fields and in both festival races he’s competed in over fences, he’s had to race wide out for most of the way round. Yet he’s remained in contention when others have cried enough.
In the Hennessy this weekend he produced an encouraging display in what looked a strong event. It was unfortunate that Timmy Murphy injured himself the day before and had to watch from the sidelines. The fact Murphy turned up to see The Package live on Saturday, when seemingly in considerable pain whilst talking with Messrs McGrath and Francome on Channel Four, indicates that he rates him highly. Tom Scudamore did a fine job as the substitute but Murphy knows the horse well and he’ll be itching to get back on him again. Still, the fact he stayed on and took fourth was pleasing considering he had three Grade One winners ahead of him filling the first three places. He was well clear of the rest and from the visual clues, coupled with what Murphy was saying, he seems like he’ll appreciate the extra distance the National has to offer. His mark is heading towards 150 now, but he has the ability to back that mark up and the 33/1 currently available with William Hill is just big enough to tempt. He appeals as an each way selection, even in early December.
It's an article I wrote and published on Decemeber 2nd on my website I'm creating at the moment. See if you agree or not.
As the sun continues to rise on a new jumps season, thoughts of Aintree in April seem far away. The Grand National captures the heart of the country like no other race and it’ll be interesting to see how the changes to it’s structure impact upon this love. The alteration to the distance of the race and the start being further away from the grandstand have the potential to appease those who still chip away at the event each year for being too dangerous. At it’s core though it’s still a spectacle that every man and his dog likes to try and find the winner of. Going back to work on the Monday with a smug grin adorned on ones face and cash in ones pocket is all part of it’s heritage.
While it may seem strange to seek out the winner of a race that’s still some five months away, I enjoy it. Attempting to crack the puzzle based on only a small percentage of information compared to that which shall be available come the day, is a tantalising prospect. From an ante post list longer than the race itself, step forward The Package. The Johnson/Pipe/Murphy team know just what it takes to land the huge prize, having done so recently with Comply Or Die, and this fellow has a similar profile. He put up a fantastic display back in March at the Cheltenham Festival when returning from over a year off the track to finish a gallant fourth in the JLT Handicap. That was a display of courage and class, both of which will only help come April. Returning this season he’s landed the Badger Ales Trophy in game fashion, popping his fences nicely that day and staying on well to beat the talented Michel Le Bon. The pair pulled well clear of the rest. Trainer David Pipe has indicated already that he’s a National horse and he’ll be trained with that in mind. He experienced the Aintree fences first hand when unseating there as a seven year old in Don’t Push It’s race. He’ll return next year a much wiser and stronger ten year old. Watching his races he seems very nimble and intelligent in big fields and in both festival races he’s competed in over fences, he’s had to race wide out for most of the way round. Yet he’s remained in contention when others have cried enough.
In the Hennessy this weekend he produced an encouraging display in what looked a strong event. It was unfortunate that Timmy Murphy injured himself the day before and had to watch from the sidelines. The fact Murphy turned up to see The Package live on Saturday, when seemingly in considerable pain whilst talking with Messrs McGrath and Francome on Channel Four, indicates that he rates him highly. Tom Scudamore did a fine job as the substitute but Murphy knows the horse well and he’ll be itching to get back on him again. Still, the fact he stayed on and took fourth was pleasing considering he had three Grade One winners ahead of him filling the first three places. He was well clear of the rest and from the visual clues, coupled with what Murphy was saying, he seems like he’ll appreciate the extra distance the National has to offer. His mark is heading towards 150 now, but he has the ability to back that mark up and the 33/1 currently available with William Hill is just big enough to tempt. He appeals as an each way selection, even in early December.
THARAWAAT
beaten 20ls in april after being hampered at beechers
2nd time around.nothing will be finishing better.
only had one run since staying on nicely .50/1 decent
enough price to have ago.hopefully get in around the
10st mark . gl
beaten 20ls in april after being hampered at beechers
2nd time around.nothing will be finishing better.
only had one run since staying on nicely .50/1 decent
enough price to have ago.hopefully get in around the
10st mark . gl
AT A BIG PRICE A MUST ON ANY LIST MUST BE
ALWAYS WAINING
ONE RUN OVER HURDLES IN FEB
THEN ONWARDS AND UPWARDS FOR THE BIG ONE
C U ALL THERE
ALWAYS WAINING
ONE RUN OVER HURDLES IN FEB
THEN ONWARDS AND UPWARDS FOR THE BIG ONE
C U ALL THERE
Positive result today in the Lexus for The Package. A welcome form boost to his chances.
Value King , nice write up. Yeah, that's what I said! 
I have spent the last couple of days seeking out the 33's at two well known stores.
I do agree that 33/1 is value , but it will be gone by the morning I suspect.
At this stage though, I like to have several on my side and not put all my eggs in one basket.
GL and keep me posted on your thoughts.
I have spent the last couple of days seeking out the 33's at two well known stores.
I do agree that 33/1 is value , but it will be gone by the morning I suspect.
At this stage though, I like to have several on my side and not put all my eggs in one basket.
GL and keep me posted on your thoughts.
Ellis, gonna watch the race again, will come back with my thoughts but at 50's sounds good
It's still holding at the 33's with one firm at the moment. He's the one that really grabs my attention at this stage and I'll stick with him for the time being. It's a long way from the race itself and I don't want to invest too much across a number of potential runners only for something to go wrong. I'm happy biding my time and watching the season unfold.
Some nice runs from Teaforthree(Hennessy 6th), Hold On Julio(Hennessy 5th) and Michel Le Bon(Badger Ales 2nd) on January 5th in the Welsh National would give him an even more solid look on form alone. Especially after he was dropped 1lb for finishing 4th in said Hennessy behind BW, TB and FL. Also, once he's reunited with Timmy Murphy he's a better horse.
Some nice runs from Teaforthree(Hennessy 6th), Hold On Julio(Hennessy 5th) and Michel Le Bon(Badger Ales 2nd) on January 5th in the Welsh National would give him an even more solid look on form alone. Especially after he was dropped 1lb for finishing 4th in said Hennessy behind BW, TB and FL. Also, once he's reunited with Timmy Murphy he's a better horse.
Always Waining, for obvious reasons, Wayward Prince, who travelled better than I've ever seen him last time, is unbeaten at Aintree and has a grade 1 hurdle win there to his name, plus Join Together, who looked a natural last time, are my 3 against the field. Hope one of them can erase the memory of Sunnyhill Boy, who I'd backed in November last year, being chinned on the line.
After viewing last years national live and observing the movement of On His Own through the race I was never as excited to back horse A/P for a race that was going to be twelve months away. I went to P/P's and got 33/1 on weekly basis for a few months and then to Boyle's where I continued to back him at 25/1. I have finished backing OHO and hope he gets to the race safe and sound. His owner Mr Wiley holds the key to the race having other fancied runner Prince De Beauchene and of course Tidal Bay, the horse that could dictate the weights. I was very impressed with PDB run over hurdles at christmas and placed a covering bet. Good Luck to all on your own views and bets.
On His Own is fairly obvious imo, but price aint up to much now
have backed Always Right, Knockara Beau and Balthazar King for small steaks at decent odds
gl
have backed Always Right, Knockara Beau and Balthazar King for small steaks at decent odds
gl
All the 33/1 has gone now. Best priced 25/1. It'll be a very interesting race tomorrow at Chepstow. Can the form be boosted further?
On Always Waining, Tidal Bay, Fruity o' Rooney, Across the Bay and Soll all treble figures except Tidal. Should have a good idea today whether some of them have any chance with 3 running.
has everyone missed the fact that prince de beauchene was 7/1 fav for the race lace last year only to suffer a stress fracture 2 weeks after his prep race which he jumped the last fence 40 lengths clear to be allowed to cruise down to walk over the line for an easy win.
hes back this year and won a hurdle race far too easily over the christmas period ive already taken 25/1 in september and hes now 14/1 fav. with paddy power.
the owner also owns tidal bay winner of the lexus over christmas but he now carries top weight of 11-12 and will run because prince de beauchene will then get in with 10-11 and is the winner for me if he takes to the fences, also it is stated of the 2 horses ruby will ride the prince and i know he likes the horse a lot. has always looked a national horse to me even before he had jumped a fence. he is the perfect age as well.
i think the prince will line up for the same prep racde as last year at the back end of february on ireland if indeed they even bother with a prep race.
my other each way shot is alfie sherrin incredibly well handicapped but 8 pounds out of the handicap if tidal bay does run but if he gets in then off 10 stone will stay all day and if there at the last could go away to a very easy victory
hes back this year and won a hurdle race far too easily over the christmas period ive already taken 25/1 in september and hes now 14/1 fav. with paddy power.
the owner also owns tidal bay winner of the lexus over christmas but he now carries top weight of 11-12 and will run because prince de beauchene will then get in with 10-11 and is the winner for me if he takes to the fences, also it is stated of the 2 horses ruby will ride the prince and i know he likes the horse a lot. has always looked a national horse to me even before he had jumped a fence. he is the perfect age as well.
i think the prince will line up for the same prep racde as last year at the back end of february on ireland if indeed they even bother with a prep race.
my other each way shot is alfie sherrin incredibly well handicapped but 8 pounds out of the handicap if tidal bay does run but if he gets in then off 10 stone will stay all day and if there at the last could go away to a very easy victory
Pandy
I see where your coming from regarding PDB but he was backed into 7/1 on the strength of been "well in" last year, I believe he was due to go up 15lb after the G.N. So is he well in this year?
I was mighty impressed with his run over hurdles at christmas and subsequently backed him at 20's. But as already stated I backed ON HIS OWN @ 33's (who you didn't didn't mention is also owned by Mr Wiley)on the strength of last years run. If you didn't notice him in last years race watch a replay. Last year Townsend took over in the saddle at the last minute due to Ruby's injury. He was very unlucky in race and I know there is always hard luck stories in a national,but this is truly worth watching. I'm sure Townsend would love if Ruby chose something else this year and he got a second bite on OHO.
GL with your selections.
I see where your coming from regarding PDB but he was backed into 7/1 on the strength of been "well in" last year, I believe he was due to go up 15lb after the G.N. So is he well in this year?
I was mighty impressed with his run over hurdles at christmas and subsequently backed him at 20's. But as already stated I backed ON HIS OWN @ 33's (who you didn't didn't mention is also owned by Mr Wiley)on the strength of last years run. If you didn't notice him in last years race watch a replay. Last year Townsend took over in the saddle at the last minute due to Ruby's injury. He was very unlucky in race and I know there is always hard luck stories in a national,but this is truly worth watching. I'm sure Townsend would love if Ruby chose something else this year and he got a second bite on OHO.
GL with your selections.
Always Waining, grave doubts about him seeing this trip out and the 7lb rise from last year is asking a lot.
OHO now down to 10s on here , what has happened is there some news I have missed ?
Best odds available today (might be useful as a reminder come April)
16-1 prince de b, on his own, 20-1 tea43, join t, sea bass, 25-1 package, shakalakab b, Capps b, sunny hill boy, others 33-1 or more.
Why is the package not available to bet with lludbooks?
16-1 prince de b, on his own, 20-1 tea43, join t, sea bass, 25-1 package, shakalakab b, Capps b, sunny hill boy, others 33-1 or more.
Why is the package not available to bet with lludbooks?
Teaforthree being by Oscar will appreciate better ground. A big rangy type who has a National way of jumping and will gallop all the way to the line.
One of the picks mentioned on here was responsible for severely hampering my choice
last year, where he finished on the deck, lessons will have been learned and
maybe that horse will be successful this year.
Puzzle away, posters.
last year, where he finished on the deck, lessons will have been learned and
maybe that horse will be successful this year.
Puzzle away, posters.
One of the few trumpeters who's nom de plume does not lie.
Rare Bob - A long shot yes, but maybe being trained for this. Has won a Grade 1 Chase previously(not the best G1 ever) and has run well at Aintree in April before. Was placed in the 3m1f listed handicap in 2010, and had just hit the front 2 out when coming down against Prince De Beauchene giving him 13lbs in the same race in 2011. Tried his luck in the National last year but was brought down early. Has had 1 HURDLE race in January this year and will now get in near the 10st mark and will receive about 12lbs from PDB. Just seems a bit of value to me, but I may be way off.
and Tharawaat -who brought him down wasn't entered
At this stage I like Quito De La Roque and Magnanimity
February update - here's where I'm at ( before the weights are announced)
By far my strongest and most rewarding fancy is THE PACKAGE as I think he has the most scope to improve.
I've just got this nagging doubt that he won't run, don't know why, had him last year at 440 on here (439-1 !) so you can understand my frustration if he doesn't make the line up again!
I'm also in deep on Seabass and Cappa Bleu and if either prevails then I'm in good profit.
Chicago Grey, Colbert Station, Weird Al, Backstage, Sunnyhill Boy, On His Own and Prince de Beauchene all cover my stakes.
If anything else wins then I'm fooked
I think that most of my betting is done
now
By far my strongest and most rewarding fancy is THE PACKAGE as I think he has the most scope to improve.
I've just got this nagging doubt that he won't run, don't know why, had him last year at 440 on here (439-1 !) so you can understand my frustration if he doesn't make the line up again!
I'm also in deep on Seabass and Cappa Bleu and if either prevails then I'm in good profit.
Chicago Grey, Colbert Station, Weird Al, Backstage, Sunnyhill Boy, On His Own and Prince de Beauchene all cover my stakes.
If anything else wins then I'm fooked
I think that most of my betting is done
now
Flippin heck JB you've got half the field backed !!And you are fooked - 'cause Tidal Bay wins (imo) 
Facts, 
the handicapper is obviously desperate to help a top weight land the spoils to attract other owners of top class horses to enter in forthcoming years and enhance the appeal of the race, however imo tidal bay does not have the qualities of a national winner . If it came up soft then a place bet would be an attractive proposition, but with getting over a stone I think that my e.w bet on the well handicapped THE PACKAGE is standout value and I would not swap it for any other at this stage. GL
Angel, can't have T43 as mcCoy likely to choose Colbert?
the handicapper is obviously desperate to help a top weight land the spoils to attract other owners of top class horses to enter in forthcoming years and enhance the appeal of the race, however imo tidal bay does not have the qualities of a national winner . If it came up soft then a place bet would be an attractive proposition, but with getting over a stone I think that my e.w bet on the well handicapped THE PACKAGE is standout value and I would not swap it for any other at this stage. GL
Angel, can't have T43 as mcCoy likely to choose Colbert?
As Colbert is a JP horse I don't think he'd have much of an option.
Chicago Grey running a cracking race last year? I think most horses were until the 5th fence. Have you got the right horse?
GoldCupWinner, apologies if my deliberately vague write-up has misled you. I base my selections on value ( I took 55 and 50 for c.g.) and potential. I thought and still think, that c.g. has the potential to perform from an attractive handicap mark, that's why I have included him in my portfolio last year. I consider His current price of 16/1 to be poor value.
I have taken the 130's available on here this week for Weird Al as although he's likely at carry a pound or two more than last year I just couldn't resist those odds!
I've also had a bit more on Cappa Bleu, he is the only horse that matched Neptunes turn of foot over the last half mile IMO and strikes me as the most likely winner, time will tell!
I have taken the 130's available on here this week for Weird Al as although he's likely at carry a pound or two more than last year I just couldn't resist those odds!
I've also had a bit more on Cappa Bleu, he is the only horse that matched Neptunes turn of foot over the last half mile IMO and strikes me as the most likely winner, time will tell!
Surely King F can win the Durham national off this mark?
I guess Blinkers will either make/ break.
I'm having a good e/ w punt to recoup my big race losses.
Dangerous thing letting ur heart rule ur head!
I guess Blinkers will either make/ break.
I'm having a good e/ w punt to recoup my big race losses.
Dangerous thing letting ur heart rule ur head!
Hmmmm,
A bit non plussed by that performance, travelled and jumped beautifully then done for pace before running on.
Seems to have his own ideas about the game!
He's worth keeping an eye on tho....
Will return with thoughts on next years GN in Dec
Thanks to everyone who posted, I really appreciate your views and opinions, even if I don't agree!
Jb
A bit non plussed by that performance, travelled and jumped beautifully then done for pace before running on.
Seems to have his own ideas about the game!
He's worth keeping an eye on tho....
Will return with thoughts on next years GN in Dec
Thanks to everyone who posted, I really appreciate your views and opinions, even if I don't agree!
Jb
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