Grand National
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This is it guys!!!!
I copied these stats from a thread that was posted on here prior to last years' National so take no credit for them if they are of interest to anyone... makes interesting reading though!
'Apologies if someone has already done one of these threads - I couldn't see one. All trends are for last 10 years unless otherwise stated:
Lets start with some abolutes:
Won a chase over at least 3 miles - 100% (and indeed, every winner since at least 1988)
Aged between 8 and 12 - 100% (and every winner since 1978: only 3 8yos, 4 12yos since 1978)
Ran 4-6 times in season - 100% (only Miinehoma since 1988 ran less than 4 times)
Carried 11-1 or less - 100% (only 2 carried 11-0 + in last 20 runnings)
Appying these trends to the top 70 currently entered, 51 runners are eliminated.
Had a run within last 50 days - 100% (18 ex last 20 ran within 36 days)
Had not finished out of the frame or pulled up in a previous GN - 100% (Amberleigh House was 3rd, and also brought down, 2 others fell previousl)
Managed at least a place in one of previous 3 runs - 100% (allows us to eliminate some woefully out of form old-timers)
Had won a maximum of one race that season - 90% (Exception was Lord Gyllene 10 years ago)
Sunnyhilly Boy
Killyglen
This system works amazingly well each year and i suggest doing a forecast! Tell me how great this is at 430 !
GL all
I copied these stats from a thread that was posted on here prior to last years' National so take no credit for them if they are of interest to anyone... makes interesting reading though!
'Apologies if someone has already done one of these threads - I couldn't see one. All trends are for last 10 years unless otherwise stated:
Lets start with some abolutes:
Won a chase over at least 3 miles - 100% (and indeed, every winner since at least 1988)
Aged between 8 and 12 - 100% (and every winner since 1978: only 3 8yos, 4 12yos since 1978)
Ran 4-6 times in season - 100% (only Miinehoma since 1988 ran less than 4 times)
Carried 11-1 or less - 100% (only 2 carried 11-0 + in last 20 runnings)
Appying these trends to the top 70 currently entered, 51 runners are eliminated.
Had a run within last 50 days - 100% (18 ex last 20 ran within 36 days)
Had not finished out of the frame or pulled up in a previous GN - 100% (Amberleigh House was 3rd, and also brought down, 2 others fell previousl)
Managed at least a place in one of previous 3 runs - 100% (allows us to eliminate some woefully out of form old-timers)
Had won a maximum of one race that season - 90% (Exception was Lord Gyllene 10 years ago)
Sunnyhilly Boy
Killyglen
This system works amazingly well each year and i suggest doing a forecast! Tell me how great this is at 430 !
GL all
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Weght Dont Push it carried 11-5 in 2010 and won Tony McCoy only winner to date. Does that let a few horses into the stats. Agree with the rest of system
Weght Dont Push it carried 11-5 in 2010 and won Tony McCoy only winner to date. Does that let a few horses into the stats. Agree with the rest of system
This year its Saint Are and Chicago Grey. Not bad last year..a brought down and a 16/1 chance beaten on the nod. GL all
Smartie i would take a look through those stats again if i was you, cos as a 7yo Saint Are is definitely not a qualifier!
The stats were mine...the original thread was actually posted before Silver Birch's GN win in 2007. (You can also tell this from the reference to Lord Gyllene's win).
FWIW, I dont believe the weight stat holds much water now. I also think the 1 win in a season stat should be amended to "1 chase win prior to publication of weights", as this obviously relates to the protection of the horse's handicap mark. Finally, I think the 4-6 runs and recent run stats are most under threat now, as more sophisticated training methods mean trainers to no longer need to use the racecourse to get their horses fit.
FWIW, I dont believe the weight stat holds much water now. I also think the 1 win in a season stat should be amended to "1 chase win prior to publication of weights", as this obviously relates to the protection of the horse's handicap mark. Finally, I think the 4-6 runs and recent run stats are most under threat now, as more sophisticated training methods mean trainers to no longer need to use the racecourse to get their horses fit.
Yes, throw out weight stat for sure since the compressed handicap. The "won over 3 miles" is pretty pointless now too with the new qualifying rule in place, 37 of this years 40 pass it! You are welcome to adopt or adapt the 26f(25.5f in reality with RP rounding) stat that I use. Winner of class 2 chase at that distance or further or placed 1-2-3 in a class 1 at this distance or further. Only winners to fail it from 1988 onwards are Monty's Pass and Red Marauder the year only 2 finished. I was using a similar method in the 80's and was successful then too but don't have data to prove before 1988.
Ilnamar! You are correct, it was yours. I just dragged it up because I think its always worth a look. Is saint Are a 7yo? Christ Id better give up!
To be honeest if you apply those stats as they are Smartie, then the best qualifiers this year are Chicago Grey as you said, and more surprisingly Forpadydeplasterer!!
But as has been said above, i think that the weight stat for one is no longer relevant. And i have a feeling we could see the first top weight winner since Red Rum!
But as has been said above, i think that the weight stat for one is no longer relevant. And i have a feeling we could see the first top weight winner since Red Rum!
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