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Weght Dont Push it carried 11-5 in 2010 and won Tony McCoy only winner to date. Does that let a few horses into the stats. Agree with the rest of system
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Weght Dont Push it carried 11-5 in 2010 and won Tony McCoy only winner to date. Does that let a few horses into the stats. Agree with the rest of system
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This year its Saint Are and Chicago Grey. Not bad last year..a brought down and a 16/1 chance beaten on the nod. GL all
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Smartie i would take a look through those stats again if i was you, cos as a 7yo Saint Are is definitely not a qualifier!
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The stats were mine...the original thread was actually posted before Silver Birch's GN win in 2007. (You can also tell this from the reference to Lord Gyllene's win).
FWIW, I dont believe the weight stat holds much water now. I also think the 1 win in a season stat should be amended to "1 chase win prior to publication of weights", as this obviously relates to the protection of the horse's handicap mark. Finally, I think the 4-6 runs and recent run stats are most under threat now, as more sophisticated training methods mean trainers to no longer need to use the racecourse to get their horses fit. |
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Yes, throw out weight stat for sure since the compressed handicap. The "won over 3 miles" is pretty pointless now too with the new qualifying rule in place, 37 of this years 40 pass it! You are welcome to adopt or adapt the 26f(25.5f in reality with RP rounding) stat that I use. Winner of class 2 chase at that distance or further or placed 1-2-3 in a class 1 at this distance or further. Only winners to fail it from 1988 onwards are Monty's Pass and Red Marauder the year only 2 finished. I was using a similar method in the 80's and was successful then too but don't have data to prove before 1988.
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Ilnamar! You are correct, it was yours. I just dragged it up because I think its always worth a look. Is saint Are a 7yo? Christ Id better give up!
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To be honeest if you apply those stats as they are Smartie, then the best qualifiers this year are Chicago Grey as you said, and more surprisingly Forpadydeplasterer!!
But as has been said above, i think that the weight stat for one is no longer relevant. And i have a feeling we could see the first top weight winner since Red Rum! |