Grand National
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Aintree Grand National stats and breeding.
Aintree Grand National stats and breeding.
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i actually know 247, and in all honestly he is probaly the unluckiest punter in the national i know.
i aint spoken with him today, but i imagine , at this moment, he has a pint in one hand , and a industrial rope in the other ! so sick, he once piled into that clan royal of jp's a few years back only for the stupid jockey to drop his whip and almost run off the course in the last furlong, he then backed kings john castle a few years back that was probably certain to get around the course and it planted its ****in feet at the start. its so sick he will be laughing at this! he does read these races well, well, to what can be read within this type of race. |
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you cheeky ****, lol, its just that i dont tip horses in the national , i dont have the cheek. but i did tip you a 25/1 winner 2 days ago, and the 16/1 winner the day before so you shouldnt grumble! lol
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ohmywatagreydaylol
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R P Mclernon,who
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???
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monkey
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247
it has been a pleasure reading this thread,real intresting stuff |
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shame the jockey wasnt as good as the horse
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Why do jockeys like A p mccoy/walsh etc win most of the big pots? because theyre good at what they do.
The jockey on the winner is taking over from ruby,we all know that and have seen evidence at Cheltenham,lesson learnt,backing the right horse isnt enough,needs a good jockey as well.  |
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so 247, in summary, what is your conclusion about following stats in the national.
the winner carrying 11stone 6 lb, cant we conclude that just putting a line through a horse becasue of all these so called " gospel stats " is making it more impossible to find the winner, for eg Full finishing order of the 2012 Grand National , can you detail why you eliminated 6 out of these top 7? on those 10/12 stats you go by? It will be interesting to see when to foolow them, and when to not!!!  1. Neptune Collonges (Daryl Jacob) 33-1 2. Sunnyhillboy (Richie McLernon) 16-1 3. Seabass (Ms Katie Walsh) 8-1JF 4. Cappa Bleu (Paul Moloney) 16-1 5. In Compliance (Niall Madden) 100-1 6. Ballabriggs 7. Hello Bud |
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follow them even
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i think its safe to say , that trying to spend a lot of time trying to pick 3/4 horses in the national to win with is almost impossible, the odds of your horse getting brought down, or impeded, or the jockey being a **** is quite probable.
and it would take a nutter for someone to take their own selections seriously in the publicity stunt which is the John Smiths Grand National. Ok, finding the right animal on breeding is makes sense in theory...especially in high class flat races and the higher classes nh races, but the national is a no go for studying as far as im concerned. i think most sensible punters would agree. |
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dont know why Mclernon is getting a slagging, he brought the horse there , was just beaten by a horse that had classier form, and that had been aimed at the race all year.
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Actually i think when reading back on what was said people will realise what a total numpty you are !!!yes i did say numpty(thats being polite,embarressment to humanity would be more accurate.yes that was the HUMAN RACE,which you are obviously not part of because you have an inability to read or understand the language in which we speak on here !!!)DOH.
I think i actually said "THESE WERE NOT MY SELECTIONS BUT WERE THE 4 HORSES THAT CAME UP ACCORDING TO THE STATS OF PREVIOUS WINNERS",feeling stupid are we???you should be you retarded apology for a human being,ffs,try reading and stop trying to be intelligent.  Not claims to fame but just facts according to what we had regarding previous winners,as i said,beaten a nose by a less than glorious ride(watch the replay),but i do love young chappies like you that want to comment after the event.  ,please continue in your dream,as you were  |
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lol.quite like that,impressed ??
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kid is right,dont argue with gods
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rozelkid"please god dont let me open my big gob until i actually know what im talking about" !!!obviously not going to happen any time in the near future!!!!!
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thats a load of bollocks for a start, they were your selections, you have beeen telling me all week that they were on the phone you retard
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its easy to say that they were not your selections, then what were you retard???
were they the ones that you said had no chance??? mmm, starting to this this post below is making sense by your comments on your last post! MTanoraksallaroundme Date Joined: 16 Mar 12 Add contact | Send message 14 Apr 12 21:30 Joined: 16 Mar 12 | Topic/replies: 4 | Blogger: MTanoraksallaroundme's blog well well well what a wancfestofafred 247 stop vanking and get a life u knobe whatagreyday long live the knobs |
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THEY WERE YOUR SELECTIONS!
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THEY WERE YOUR SELECTIONS!
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i was imply asking you a simple question about stats...not breeding, your post on here was about breeding , whos the retard now????no need to get personal becasue you failed to pick a winner that went against all your stats! |
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was simply asking a question about stats...and the importance of them.
think you need a chill pill mate!! lol |
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Neptune Collonges
Sea Bass Cappa Bleu In Compliance im simply pointing out that stats and breeding dont meant **** in the grand national and the result points that out today by the top 6 places! |
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Ill fated According to Pete was so unlucky and I really think he would have been involved in the finish. So sorry for all his connections. Good thread 247.
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yeah, feel sick for the owner, the bbc did a video preview with the owner today who also breed him, he must be so cut up up , the horse is his pride and joy, kept him in his stable in his back garden since a baby and this happens today, he must have a bitter view of this national race now.
gutted for him. |
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Rozelkid
You sound like a knuckle dragger so i am sure 24/7 realises life is too short to debate with you any longer. The stats are not 100% obviously but the horse which came top on the stats was Sunnyhillboy who lost by the width of a bookies pen. The other 3 major stat horses failed to complete, which is unfortunate but nothing to do with the stats not being an excellent pointer. All the Sunnyhillboy backers were very unfortunate today and thanks for the thread 24/7. By the way i told you Cappa Bleu would run well  .. |
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well angel gabrial, you sound like an ignorant fairy if you want to get personal.
im just making the point that stats dont mean nothing in the national , because what you are doing is eliminating the chances of 6 of the top 7 horses in the race today including the winner! you are looking at those stats as being justified becasue the one you backed came a a whisker 2nd ( talking through your pocket) , what about the the other horses that were eliminated because of the stats??? this is why the bookies love people who go through stats etc..because its a complete load of bollocks! and the RESULT HAS PROVEN IT!!!!!!!!! work out the maths of the horses that filled the top 7 places, with regards to the ratio of the field that were eliminated by using the stats...you are trying to beat astronomical odds , not to mention the nature of the race! work that out , then come to a factual conclusion ...rather than fairy tale delusions! as you say..im a knuckle dragger , and even i can work that out without a calculator!! yours sincerely the realist! |
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The stats are only a guide..
The betting is only a guide.. You seem to think all the stats followers are blind to everything else. It is just another piece of the equation for assessing a possible elimination process. I brought up Cappa Bleu earlier who i fancied yet the stats were against it. So what!! If a stats horse wins say 7/10 are you saying the the stats are irrelevant ? |
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Angel,
i've not been trying to get personal here,or cause arguments for arguments sake on this thread, im just trying to state simple facts. I'm forever trying to get people who follow stats in a national race to realise this. If someone uses stats as a guide then what they are actually doing is eliminating the simple mathamatical facts without realising it, because the simple fact is that they are being blind to everything else by using them! you cant use something as a guide then choose not to use them beacuse all it is was a guide! it doesnt make sense becasue you are effecting the odds of selecting the winner..and being blind to everything else. you dont come to a conclusion on something and then dont use it if you believe you have whittled it down to the odds in your favour. i find myself getting so fustrated when i hear people saying those exact words...Stats are a guide! betting is a guide! there not my selctions but its just a guide, what a complete load of bollocks! if thats not the case then why calculate them or try and work them out ??? its completley dillusuional , nevermind in a race like the national! IF someone breaks down a 40 runner race , over 30 odd fences, then a stat guide by default is going against mathamatical probability !! thats exactly the point im making, it comes with the territory with the national becausue what people dont take into account is the IMPLIED ODDS in the national!!!! its the most important thing that retards who follow stats dont take into account. but stat followers are blind to implied odds...and thats the point im making! especially in the national , on all the stats used in this thread the result is actually almost as worst as it could be, the talk of sunny being unlucky is just judgement being clouded again ...by the simple probability of sunnyhill winning...rather than not winning! If you think the stas are a guide then its a bad guide , and thats a fact! theres no hiding from it! |
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Angel,
i've not been trying to get personal here,or cause arguments for arguments sake on this thread, im just trying to state simple facts. I'm forever trying to get people who follow stats in a national race to realise this. If someone uses stats as a guide then what they are actually doing is eliminating the simple mathamatical facts without realising it, because the simple fact is that they are being blind to everything else by using them! you cant use something as a guide then choose not to use them beacuse all it is was a guide! it doesnt make sense becasue you are effecting the odds of selecting the winner..and being blind to everything else. you dont come to a conclusion on something and then dont use it if you believe you have whittled it down to the odds in your favour. i find myself getting so fustrated when i hear people saying those exact words...Stats are a guide! betting is a guide! there not my selctions but its just a guide, what a complete load of bollocks! if thats not the case then why calculate them or try and work them out ??? its completley dillusuional , nevermind in a race like the national! IF someone breaks down a 40 runner race , over 30 odd fences, then a stat guide by default is going against mathamatical probability !! thats exactly the point im making, it comes with the territory with the national becausue what people dont take into account is the IMPLIED ODDS in the national!!!! its the most important thing that retards who follow stats dont take into account. but stat followers are blind to implied odds...and thats the point im making! especially in the national , on all the stats used in this thread the result is actually almost as worst as it could be, the talk of sunny being unlucky is just judgement being clouded again ...by the simple probability of sunnyhill winning...rather than not winning! If you think the stas are a guide then its a bad guide , and thats a fact! theres no hiding from it! |
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less of your hitler talk 247, just becasue your horse did not win, or that someone asked you a question on the probibility of a stats based study succeeding ... doesnt mean you can give one of your hitler rants again about an individuals humanity.leave the humanity hitler rants for your mirror!!! haaaaaa lol suppose you looked like a bit of a **** today when you assumed you won miles before the line, i can probaly understand why your a bit pissed off as you probably looked like a right ****!!!!! |
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Thx forthe thread. I thought we had won after the last! Bring on next year!
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Rozey
You are not getting it are you! Its all about what is more likely to happen, when people use the stats. If it was not more likely then the stats would not exist!! Its not difficult to understand really. See i put in a top stats horse and my own idea of a national type. 2nd and 4th....NC was overlooked by thousands of punters because they thought he would struggle because of his profile. If i thought he had the right profile and did not fit the stats it would not put me off in the slightest. Yet generally the horses the fit the stats has a more credible profile. |
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stats are fine, if you are talking about a trainer/horse/owner record at a track...but not if a horse is grey!!!
or if hasnt run for 49 days! or if it has run in 10 chases? if you are eliminating 36 horses solely on these 12 stats or breeding trends then its almost a certainty every year that you will eliminate the winner. you picked cappa bleu which the stats said would not win! 247 said he would pay you himself if it won ...in other words using stats made him put lines through 6 of the top 7 horses. its got nothing to do with whats likely to happen, you cant do that in the national! its my point!!!!!! im just saying that you cant follow stats of this kind in the national, the implied odds negate them. just deluding that it helps is crazy! look at the result! my closing statement is that if you want to try and pick the winner for the national, then dont solely create a small list on the basis of stats..we see it in the papers every year where the industry suggest you use them. youve said it yourself ...using stats to try and predict what is likely to happen! ITS THE GRAND NATIONAL, WHERE HALF OF THE FIELD DOESN'T FINISH! |
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What an excellent thread 247. Your analysis of the stats and breeding some of the best I have come across. I think it is a bit harsh to call Mclernon a monkey. He gave the horse an excellent ride up until the elbow where unfortunately he made a mess of it. After watching race again luck was certainly against you. Rare Bob pinged te first 5 fences before getting brought down by not a horse but a jockey. Killyglen's race finished at the canal turn the first time and Robbie Power should be ashamed if he actually claimed his riding fee after such a soft exit. According to Pete was well in contention till been brought down by On His Own and to lose his life in such circumstances so so sad for all connected. Looking ahead you would have to think Sunnyhillboy will have a great chance of winning the race next year, as well as On His Own who was tanking when falling.
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