Grand National
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Not only have i applied 14 stats that were achieved by all recent winners,i have also applied some very interesting breeding stats that have appeared in the 9 generation tree of recent winners.
Dating back to 2002 all winners had either Vimy(king george winner)or his sire Wild risk appear in their 4th or 5th generations,Wild Risk coming from the Blandford mare Wild Violet.
The only winner that didnt was 2009 winner Mon mome,but he had Blandfords son Blenheim(derby)in his 8th line and grandson Mahmoud(derby) in his 7th line on his sires side.
Add to this the appearance of Brantome(Arc,2yo French triple crown)8th line,Vieux Manoir(Grand prix de paris,2nd St Leger)7th line and Exbury (Arc,Coronation cup,Grands prix de saint cloud,Prix Ganay,Prix Boiard)5th line,along with a few Blandford lines on the dams side,i think a picture is beginning to form of the very high class lines bred into these National winners,many originating from champion sire Blandford.
After applying the 14 stats associated with previous winners i came up with a list of four.
According to pete.
Sunnyhillboy.
Killyglen.
Rare Bob
The female tail lines are in sinc with previous winners,ATP speed 10 stamina 16,SHB speed 6 stamina 15,K speed 3 stamina 13 and RB speed 5 stamina 17,but only 3 have the Vimy/Wild Risk influence in their 4th or 5th generations,and they are Sunnyhillboy with Vimy 4th and Wild Risk 5th,Rare Bob with Vimy in his 5th line and Killygen with Vimy also in his 5th generation.
Make of it what you will but facts are facts and theyre all weighted under 11 stone,so given the recent recent rain ide say these stats are even more relevant.
Enjoy,hope the winners in there.
Dating back to 2002 all winners had either Vimy(king george winner)or his sire Wild risk appear in their 4th or 5th generations,Wild Risk coming from the Blandford mare Wild Violet.
The only winner that didnt was 2009 winner Mon mome,but he had Blandfords son Blenheim(derby)in his 8th line and grandson Mahmoud(derby) in his 7th line on his sires side.
Add to this the appearance of Brantome(Arc,2yo French triple crown)8th line,Vieux Manoir(Grand prix de paris,2nd St Leger)7th line and Exbury (Arc,Coronation cup,Grands prix de saint cloud,Prix Ganay,Prix Boiard)5th line,along with a few Blandford lines on the dams side,i think a picture is beginning to form of the very high class lines bred into these National winners,many originating from champion sire Blandford.
After applying the 14 stats associated with previous winners i came up with a list of four.
According to pete.
Sunnyhillboy.
Killyglen.
Rare Bob
The female tail lines are in sinc with previous winners,ATP speed 10 stamina 16,SHB speed 6 stamina 15,K speed 3 stamina 13 and RB speed 5 stamina 17,but only 3 have the Vimy/Wild Risk influence in their 4th or 5th generations,and they are Sunnyhillboy with Vimy 4th and Wild Risk 5th,Rare Bob with Vimy in his 5th line and Killygen with Vimy also in his 5th generation.
Make of it what you will but facts are facts and theyre all weighted under 11 stone,so given the recent recent rain ide say these stats are even more relevant.
Enjoy,hope the winners in there.
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Nice work, national pedigree's are always of interest to me and something i look into in detail. Out of those 4 i can only have Sunnyhillboy. I'm presuming, other than Ballabriggs, you have a few others that are over the 11 stone mark
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I have backed three of them so I am pleased to see your work come down on them too
Sunny at 65 Killy at 38 Rare Bob at 75 maybe need to have a bit on According to Pete although I haave already traded most of my liability away Very interesting bloodline work - not something I know anything about or how to do really fingers crossed |
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Good work 247...that's really interesting.
Go Sunnyhill!! |
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Interesting stuff 247...can you publish a complete list of runners that fit just the breeding stats?
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You'll find vimy and blandford in the old vics
Blandford is in Saddlers Wells, whilst Vimy himself produced Busted, very well known for his staying powers. HTH folks  |
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Yes Blandford(Princess of Wales stakes)did appear in Saddlers wells 6th line on his sires side along with his son Blenheim(1930 Derby,owned by H H Aga Khan III)5th line,and grandson Mahmoud(1936 Derby)4th line.
Add to that Carbine(1st Melbourne Cup (AUS), Sydney Cup (AUS-2m)X2, Champion S. (AUS)X2, Flying S. (AUS)X2, AJC Plate (AUS-24F)X3, Cumberland S. (AUS-1.75m), All-Aged S. (AUS-8F). 2nd AJC Autumn Plate (AUS-1.5m).) appearing on Sadlers Wells sires side in the 8th line and Spearmint(1906 Derby,Grand Prix de Paris)in the 7th,and we are getting a very interesting picture of the immense lines of class and stamina bred into some of these horses. No surprise that Sadlers Wells has himself sired so many high class progeny,incidently all those mentioned above appeared in numerous lines on Sadlers wells dams side. |
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Good news, have backed Killy, ATP and Rare Bob (but traded out of a lot of Rare Bob recently to leave a small green).
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Vimy Wild Risk
Synchronised 0 0 Ballabriggs 5th sire 0 (Won National in 2011) Weird Al 5th dam 0 (Fails to qualify,only 1 chase run was a handicap) Neptune Collonges 0 0 Calgary Bay 0 0 Alfa Beat 0 0 Planet Of Sound 5th sire 0 (Fails to qualify as only 1 of his chase runs was a handicap,also has 14 speed points) (in his conduit mare profile,3 more than any winner since 1980,hedgehunter had 11) Black Apalachi 4th sire 5th dam (2nd in 2010 National,fails to qualify this year on the 8 to 12 yo rule,hes 13) Deep Purple 0 0 Junior 0 0 Chicago grey 0 0 tatenen 0 0 Seabass 5th sire 0 (Fails to qualify on minimum 5 runs over 3 miles in chase or hurdle,hes had 2 and was) ( was beaten both times) Shakalakaboomboom 0 0 west End Rocker 0 0 According to pete 0 0 On His Own 5th sire 0 (Fails to qualify on minimum 9 chase rule and minimum 49 days since last run,hes been (off for 78 days come Saturday) Always right 0 5th dam (Fails to qualify on 49 day since last run rule,off 56 come Saturday) Cappa Bleu 5th sire 0 (Fails to qualify on minimum 9 chase starts,only had 6,and been off 56 days come) (Saturday) Rare Bob 5th dam 0 Organisedconfusion 0 5th dam (Fails to qualify on 8 to 12 rule,only 7,and the minimum 5 starts over 3 miles in a (chase or hurdle,although this didnt stop him winning the Irish National he is (considerably worse off with a few runners here,Sunnyhillboy(10lb for 6 lengths)Rare) ( Bob,beaten 2 1/2 lengths,18lb worse off) Treacle 0 0 The Midnight Club 0 0 Mon mome 0 0 (Explained above) Arbor Supreme 5th sire 0 (Not run since December 2011,49 day rule) Sunnyhillboy 4th sire 5th sire Killygen 5th sire 0 Quiscover Fontaine 0 5th dam (Fails to qualify on minimum 9 chase start rule,only had 7,also only ran once at 3) (miles) Tharawaat 0 0 Becauseicouldntsee 5th sire 0 (Not won a chase value 17k and not had minimum 3 chase wins) Le Beau Bai 0 0 State Of Play 0 0 Always Waining 0 0 Swing Bill 0 0 Postmaster 0 0 Giles Cross 0 0 Midnight Haze 0 0 Vic Venturi 4th sire 5th sire (Off for 62 days,49 day rule) In Compliance 4th sire 5th sire 5th dam (Not won over 3 miles) Viking Blond 0 0 |
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That didnt post to well,but basically explains all top 40 runners on Saturday that have Vimy or Wild Risk in their 1st 5 generations and why they dont qualify as having a chance if they do have these horses in their family lines.
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First line is Vimy and 2nd is Wild Risk.
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Just to explain because i have been asked,take Seabass,he has Vimy in his 5th generation on his sires side but fails to qualify as all recent winners had run over 3 miles over fences or hurdles at least 5 times,hes ran twice under rules and was beaten on both occasions.
Hes obviously not won at 3 miles which is also a requirment of previous winners. |
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see if this comes out any better 247lol, it probably wont.
Vimy Wild Risk Synchronised 0 0 Ballabriggs 5th sire 0 (Won National in 2011) Weird Al 5th dam 0 (Fails to qualify, only 1 chase run was a handicap) Neptune Collonges 0 0 Calgary Bay 0 0 Alfa Beat 0 0 Planet Of Sound 5th sire 0 (Fails to qualify as only 1 of his chase runs was a handicap, also has 14 speed points) (in his conduit mare profile,3 more than any winner since 1980,hedgehunter had 11) Black Apalachi 4th sire 5th dam (2nd in 2010 National, fails to qualify this year on the 8 to 12 yo rule, hes 13) Deep Purple 0 0 Junior 0 0 Chicago grey 0 0 Tatenen 0 0 Seabass 5th sire 0 (Fails to qualify on minimum 5 runs over 3 miles in chase or hurdle, hes had 2 and was) ( was beaten both times) Shakalakaboom 0 0 west End Rocker 0 0 According to Pete 0 0 On His Own 5th sire 0 (Fails to qualify on minimum 9 chase rule and minimum 49 days since last run,hes been (off for 78 days come Saturday) Always right 0 5th dam (Fails to qualify on 49 day since last run rule, off 56 come Saturday) Cappa Bleu 5th sire 0 (Fails to qualify on minimum 9 chase starts,only had 6,and been off 56 days come) (Saturday) Rare Bob 5th dam 0 Organisedconfusion 0 5th dam (Fails to qualify on 8 to 12 rule, only 7,and the minimum 5 starts over 3 miles in a chase or hurdle, although this didn’t stop him winning the Irish National he is considerably worse off with a few runners here, Sunnyhillboy(10lb for 6 lengths) Rare Bob, beaten 2 1/2 lengths,18lb worse off)Treacle 0 0 The Midnight Club 0 0 Mon Mome 0 0 (Explained above) Arbour Supreme 5th sire 0 (Not run since December 2011,49 day rule) Sunnyhillboy 4th sire 5th sire Killyglen 5th sire 0 Quiscover Fontaine 0 5th dam (Fails to qualify on minimum 9 chase start rule,only had 7,also only ran once at 3)(miles) Tharawaat 0 0 Becauseicouldntsee 5th sire 0 (Not won a chase value 17k and not had minimum 3 chase wins) Le Beau Bai 0 0 State Of Play 0 0 Always Waining 0 0 Swing Bill 0 0 Postmaster 0 0 Giles Cross 0 0 Midnight Haze 0 0 Vic Venturi 4th sire 5th sire (Off for 62 days,49 day rule) In Compliance 4th sire 5th sire 5th dam (Not won over 3 miles) Viking Blond 0 0 |
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Why is According to Pete a qualifier if he doesnt have the right breeding?
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He qualified on all the 14 statistics that previous winners had.
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And cheers rozel
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Good work..
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I wouldnt say According to pete doesnt qualify on breeding totally,after all he does have plenty of lines of Blandford and Carbine,but hes not coming up with Many of Blandfords classier progeny,Blenheim(Derby) makes 4 appearances in ATP's 7th generation line on his sires side and Mahmoud(Derby) makes 2 appearances in the 6th on the sires side,whilst on the dams side Blenheim makes 2 appearances,1 in the 7th and 1 in the 6th line.
Blandford also makes 2 appearances on the dams side in the 7th generation line,and Blandfords son Badruddin(3rd 2000 guineas) appears in the 6th line on the dams side. But overall he doesnt look anywhere near as classy on breeding as some of the others. |
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Excellent reading.Why do I think there is something in killyglen's dam side that tells me it wont stay?How do you access so much breeding detail?
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Firstly i subscribe to http://www.pedigreequery.com/,only $10 a month but longer you subcribe for cheaper it is.
This allows me to access any family tree back to the beginning of its line,its actually free to view any 5 generation tree. I also have a number of other sites i can refer to,like http://www.bloodlines.net/TB/Families/FamilyNumbers.htm,which gives you an in depth look at the British thoroughbred family trees. Not sure why Killyglen strikes you as a non stayer,it was going extremely well until it was badly hampered,this appeared to unsettle it slightly as it made a bad error at the next,but was still travelling as well as anything when falling at the fence after that. |
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It is very interesting because that Blandford line is awesome,he was responsible for some top class animals,many of which appear on multiple occasions in these national winners.
I think this along with the stats gives you a strong reading into whose who in the national field,after all your not seriously going to consider a horse like Seabass who although having Vimy in his 5 generation chart has only ran twice over 3 miles and been beaten in both,the minimum requirment of ALL recent winners is 5 runs over 3 miles,then you need to have won over 3 miles,so its profile doesnt look right. Be a bit fishy if this won(pardon the pun) |
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visited that site-many thanks and now I see it-or them-Strong Gale and Phardante on the dam side-are you sure he'll stay?Other query-is there any site advising on ground preferences for progeny of sires?
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Is that day rule the only reason you are ruling Always Right out? Would be wary doing that with National a week later this year.
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If anyones wondering why mccoy isnt on Sunnyhillboy,it might be because he struggles to do the weight,his lowest riding weight is 10st 4 lb,only 1lb less than sunnys set to carry.
J P mcmannus had multiple entries in the Irish National recently but Mccoy wasnt on the right one,Alfie Sherrin 3rd but his mount Groody Hill pulled up. Sunnyhillboy not only has a perfect profile hes actually 10lb well in on his new mark,i think people are reading to much into the Mccoy factor,realistically Synchronised looks to have a lot on his plate,especially as the ground looks like it will ride quite dead,he had run against sunny before in the 2011 Irish National giving 16lbs and was pulled up,he has to give 19lbs here. |
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Only thing that worries me about sunnyhillboy is that jonjo says he's a bit small. Will he take to Aintree fences?
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Yes i did have a second look at Always Right GoldCupWinner,what worried me a bit was hes 10 and only ever had 11 runs and hes pulled up in his last 2,obviously he cant be the soundest horses.
Hes only ever ran once at a trip under 3 miles,will he have the speed to lie up with some of these ?,if he was 66 + i might have a saver,not 38 though,think theres enough there to put me off getting involved |
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Lol,love this Sunnyhill small talk,i mean its absolutely hilarious,the fences and course in general is far less daunting then they used to be and i very much doubt sunny will fail on grounds of his size,his jumping looks ok to me.
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Haha thx for your opinion much appreciated. I'm just a bit war because last time I backed a horse who they said was too small is Arbor Supreme the first time he ran in National. He's fell twice now but guessing he doesn't jump as well as Sunnyhillboy anyway.
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i thought his jumping was a positive
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wary*
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Actually referring to the 49 day rule i think it could be signicant this year,they have had some heavy rainfall this week and although it looks likely to dry out a bit now,racecourse fitness could be a big plus come Saturday.
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Arbor Supreme-just love his breeding-pity about his jumping
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Yes looks awesome,but out since last year,major put off.
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Overall when putting everything into consideration we can get some extremely valid reasons why certain horses wont be winning and maybe might look quite smart come Saturday.
I keep coming up with the same 3,Sunnyhillboy,Rare Bob and Killyglen,obviously Rare Bobs the value and if you look closely hes not only well weighted but has some of the best form(won a grade 1 chase),looking at his action ide say he wants better ground,but funnily enough has won on soft/heavy,which makes me scratch the head a bit. He ran very well to be 4th as a 7yo in the 2009 Irish National(good) and is only 1lb higher than when he won a 42k race in Ireland where he conceded organisedconfusion(2011 Irish National winner) 19lbs yet only concedes 1lb on saturday,messing about with him?,highly possible. |
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The problem with Rare Bob is he wont stay-he only ever won a novice race at 3m and Bob Backs dont get marathons
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Bob Back sire of Bachanal winner of the 2000 stayers hurdle at Cheltenham,Bobs Worth winner of the 2012 sun alliance chase,Minella Four Star winner of the 17 runner 2011 totesport.com Midlands Grand National Chase(4 miles 1 1/2 furlongs) by 11 lengths from Balyyfitz and SYNCHRONISED
 ,Mostly Bob winner of the 3 mile 2 1/2 furlong Raceodds Handicap Chase at Cheltenham from Mon Mome,Bob Ar Aghaidh winner the Real Estate Properties Ltd Handicap Chase over 3 miles 4 furlongs,and on the flat Bobs Return winner of the 1993 St Leger.He may not have set the world alight with his progeny over the jumps or flat as yet but given the appearance of Wild Risks sons Worden(at 3 3rd: King George VI & Queen Elizabeth,at 4 1st: Washington DC International S. (USA), Prix du Prince d'Orange (FR))and Vimy in Rare Bobs dams 5th line,plus numerous lines of Blandford-Blenheim and Blandford-Bahram,im reasonably happy given decent going that he has a fair chance. |
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Interestingly the Blandford-Blenheim combo appears in the damline of Minella four star.
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So with multiple Blandford lines in Rare Bobs damline im hoping there will be sufficient stamina injected into his pedigree.
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And we also have the family line of GAINSBOROUGH(1st 2000 Guineas S. (GB), Derby S. (GB), Newmarket Gold C. (GB), September S. (GB), Autumn S. (GB),September S. (GB).Winner of the English triple crown & sire of Hyperion & Mah Mahal, dam of Mahmoud. Champion sire in 1932 & 1933. Died on June 5, 1945),HYPERION( 1st Epsom Derby, St. Leger S., Chester Vase, Prince of Wales S),Saint Crespin(Won the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe in 1959 among other famous group 1 races)being combined with the Blandford-Blenheim line to produce Rare Bobs damline,so theres plenty of hope that the class and stamina will be there.
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For the benefit of a certain person
 (extreme distance)totesport.com Midlands Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Listed Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) (4m1f110y) 4m1½f Good To Soft 22 fences 2 omitted £41,770.80, £16,124.40, £8,434.80, £4,568.40 « 1 Minella Four Star (IRE) 25/1 8 9-95 David Pipe 133 * * » ch g Bob Back (USA) - Market Lass (IRE) (Orchestra) C O'Farrell5 Chased leaders, led before 4 out, stayed on well « 2 11 Ballyfitz 16/1 11 10-02 p Nigel Twiston-Davies 133 * * » b g Overbury (IRE) - Running For Gold (Rymer) David England Dropped to rear 4th, headway 6 out, stayed on well from 2 out, took modest 3rd last, kept on well to take 2nd towards finish (tchd 20-1) « 3 1 Synchronised (IRE) 9/2F 8 11-12 Jonjo O'Neill 159 * * » b g Sadler's Wells (USA) - Mayasta (IRE) (Bob Back) A P McCoy Mid-division, dropped to rear 11th, headway 6 out, chased winner 2 out, kept on same pace, lost 2nd towards finish (op 5-1) |