Cappa Bleu - Best form this season for the GN?

Agreed. Likes to run fresh too, so 50 odd days off a plus.

Im on at 25s,but will he run?

No, this isn't the best form guide thus far. The best form guide is the Welsh National. It's had as many subsequent wins as Cappa's Haydock race but three runners that have come from Chepstow have gone on to win three races each worth over £31k - Midlands National, Warwick's Classic Chase and the Haydock Grand National Trial. Killyglen, Tamarinbleu, Merigo, and Mostly Bob's wins were all in £12k and below races.

Couple this with the fact that Cappa Blue's dam is by Strong Gale (36 runners have gone to post since 1996 with Strong Gale in them and all have failed to achieve even a placing) then he doesn't have much going for him.

He's a weak finisher (Tamarinbleu would have won in another couple of strides) failing to go through with his efforts at both Ascot and Chepstow and is essentially a bridle horse that needs to be produced at the exact right moment. He jumps beautifully but his jumping went to pot at Chepstow in the home straight when his stamina gave way.

Massive lay and maloney would be an eegit to get off SOP for this horse.

Massive lay and Moloney would be an eegit to get off SOP for this horse.

All a matter of opinion but I think he would be barking mad to opt for a 12 year old that has run with credit but still been soundly beaten in the last 3 renewals as opposed to a lightly raced one who has already shown a very decent level of form and may still have untapped potential.

I agree that the Welsh National form should be taken seriously and Cappa's run behind two lightly weighted mudlarks stacks up pretty well to me.

I dont think the orginal poster was suggesting one piece of form from Cappa - more that his overall form is very solid.   If the WGN is the best piece of form this season - which horse is the one to be on from that race?

Horses for courses,i backed both giles and le beau 4 welsh national,but would'nt touch either at aintree,i think CBs lack of chase starts is more of a concern 4 backers

Does anyone know how many other runners have strong gale in their pedigree.? interesting stat to consider!

Frankly no and I don't wish to get myself tied in knots by such stats...The same was said of french breeds even though I backed a number of them who ran cracking races for many years...Mon Moe has silenced those critics.....I prefer to look at the evidence of the horse's performance and leave the stats to look after themselves...I think the forecast in weather...watering and the need to have it the easy side of good will suit Cappa and ease Evan's worries from this report today...

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/12/04/03/RACING_National.html&BID=465

I think that strong gale stuff is utter pony,a stupid stat,right up there with french bred,grey horse,headgear nonsense

Well the weather and ground appear to have just come right...can't understand the drift on BF....looks to me like there has been an overreaction to CB alongside many others because of anticipated bad ground but I'm not convinced from recent reports it will be that bad with the draining improvements...some good and bad value in the market at the moment....happy with my average price of 20s...