Grand National
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Looks a smashing bet to me, really does.
He won a recognised trial last time out at Haydock, easily. He is officially 6lb well-in, with more to come, jumps great and is ridden handily.
The form from his races this season, and those of last season have worked out fine. He is in the form of his life this season having Won 2/3. But the beauty for me is the fact he has had a nice 6 week break between each run, the trainer has managed him perfectly and found the key to keeping him sweet.
Connections have stated he must have heavy ground, but for me that does the horse a disserivice. He won a novice hurdle under a penalty on GS, and the same arguement was made for Synchronised! Aintree will water the going like last year if it is too quick, so it will be nice and safe. Off a mark of 138 he looks a smashing bet, he has the right profile for this race with the right exposure and experience.
Off a mark of 138, he should be able to travel within himslef most of the way and in theory have no trouble of staying the trip. I believe Giles Cross is a 150 horse. Money is down.
Good luck.
He won a recognised trial last time out at Haydock, easily. He is officially 6lb well-in, with more to come, jumps great and is ridden handily.
The form from his races this season, and those of last season have worked out fine. He is in the form of his life this season having Won 2/3. But the beauty for me is the fact he has had a nice 6 week break between each run, the trainer has managed him perfectly and found the key to keeping him sweet.
Connections have stated he must have heavy ground, but for me that does the horse a disserivice. He won a novice hurdle under a penalty on GS, and the same arguement was made for Synchronised! Aintree will water the going like last year if it is too quick, so it will be nice and safe. Off a mark of 138 he looks a smashing bet, he has the right profile for this race with the right exposure and experience.
Off a mark of 138, he should be able to travel within himslef most of the way and in theory have no trouble of staying the trip. I believe Giles Cross is a 150 horse. Money is down.
Good luck.
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Hope you're right. Backed him on here all rates down from 220 to 120. Ideal ground would be soft, though i believe good/soft will be ok. His jumping will be a major asset, likely to be up front out of trouble & stays all day. Bring on the rain!!
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he is my pick as well, will he get in?
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Also 25's with numerous firms and 42 on here!
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20/1 is with the NRNB concession ..
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Would have to be against you on this one. Can't be a coincidence that every time he has pulled up the going has had good in the description. Also doesn't look like he will stay the marathon trip. Got beat 100 lengths and finished very tired each time tried 4 miles.
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Officially 6lb well in? Will that make the slightest bit of difference 4.5 miles over fences of that nature? The race is and always will be a lottery. You could pick 3/4 of the field and still not get the winner. Greatest "leveller" race in existence. Anything could win and frequently does!
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non stayer, which might sound surprising given he runs in long distance races, but 4m 4f is a lot different to 3m 4f. O'Regan gave him a very clever ride lto and i dont think there was actually much in the tank, depsite looking to win cosy. Needs a bog too as hits the ground hard. The way he went from looking the winner 4 out to clambering over the last in the Welsh National tells its own story.
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This is an interesting one.
First and foremost you need a horse that will take to the fences and whist you can never ve sure until they try, as GC is such a good jumper it is not unreasonable to believe he will enjoy the test. However the advantage he has gained with his jumping may be because of his ability to jump out of bad ground. The likelier quicker ground may be a leveller in that respect but it will help GC get the trip. I would have concerns about the trip because like others he has simply been outstayed in the last two Welsh Nationals and the Eider last year. He is remarkably consistent and as long as he enjoys the fences, he will be prominent and you will certainly get a run for your money. Usually I prefer horses that are up with the pace in staying chases. There are a lot worse bets than this one but also a couple I prefer more |
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I'd agree about the non-stayer comments, I thought the same myself after each run at Chepstow. If you stop the race 3 furlongs from home each time he is the clear-cut winner. But you have to look at the horses that then stayed on past him and Won. One of them was Synchronised, and the other was Le Beau Bai who is a Chepstow specialist and had placed in the National previously off a 12lb higher mark.
Given that the horse seems to be in the form of his life at the momemt, and he'll be receiving weight from most of the runners should he get a run, then on this less demanding track and probable better ground then he may well stay the trip. Denis O'regan can ride a race from the front again like he did at Haydock. |
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Kelami, what do you think about the Ground & Trip ?
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I believe good/soft will be ok, but was talking to a friend this morning who knows the owner & she thinks it will have to be soft for the horse to be allowed to take his chance. As for the trip, you dont know for sure until the horse tries it, but i would be reasonably hopeful.
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I wouldn't use the eider as evidence that he didn't stay either
that was such a brutal race, even the winner didn't stay in those conditions! |
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OK thanks Kelami. When you say allowed then presumably it is the trainer with the final call as opposed to the owner ..
Agree re the Eider, so many horses fail to even complete that race it's like running the Gauntlet. |
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Love this nag. I was so happy he finally won a decent race lto. Even though he looks made for Aintree I cant have him on good ground. I fear they would go too quick for GC who simply has to be prominent all the time!
He needs it to be Idealy g/s-sft, I woudnt want it Hvy as that would suit others more ie LBB, WER and the current Gold Cup winner. He stays the distance imo providing its not a bog. |
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Does anyone know what connections intentions are with Giles Cross re this race?
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To win it id imagine tinkler
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The stats are dreadful for winners of the Haydock National trial. Plenty of National winners have come from placed and unplaced runners but I think I am right in saying the winner has never gone on the win the National in the same season
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But do they intent to be in it to win it or are they only going to run on soft ground and say we won't be in it on Good or faster ground so cann't win it.
Do previous stats have that much relevance for this race now that they water extensively and the size of the fences has been reduced? I cann't see too many negatives with Giles Cross in the National and his jumping technique looks ideal for the fences. His second to Synchronised last year strongly suggests he's got a lot of class and is there a jockey riding better than Denis O'regan? Going to take the cautious approch and wait for connections to fully commit before risking any money though the 20/1 nrnb is tempting and I'm probably being greedy in waiting. |
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Sint
Do you think he'll get in? If yes, then which 6 do you think will be out? I know you're nrnb, but I bet you've done the analysis  |
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I've been looking down the card. I'm no expert, but here are a few that must be doubtful. The
percentages are highly speculative and I'd welcome other opinions. Synchronised - Trainer reportedly keen to run. History suggests it's more unlikely. Owner definitely a sportsman. 50% ?? Quel Esprit - Missed the Gold Cup - "not right". Must be no better than, say 40% Black Apalachi - One race in 2 years, but was aimed at the race last year. 80% ?? West End Rocker - Missed a prep race a few weeks ago. 80% ?? Postmaster - Long time since a race. Must be unlikely to go. 75% ?? |
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Here's one for people who like C+D specialists...
State Of Play - Last two runs, 4th and 3rd in the National (2011 and 2010 respectively). |
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State of Play= The Pilgarlic
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Pete, The reason West End Rocker missed his prep was because The Baldfred Classic at Warwick was before The Grand National weights came out and connections wanted to protect his mark, hardly a negative.
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Thanks TB. I didn't know that. My list is completely speculative. I was hoping to
prompt Sint or the Headmaster to come up with a full list of every horses' prospects. |
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Pete, he also missed The Grimthorpe at Doncaster a few weeks ago. Withdrawn on the day because of the ground.
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i can only agree he has an amazing chance i was hoping he would get in last year as i thought he could have won it then but a year on and he has improved im hoping he drifts then back him just b4 the off
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Pete, I dont think Synchronised will run. I know Jonjo seems positive but prior to this season McCoy has always said he would struggle with the fences at Aintree. They also said this season each run takes a lot out of him so I dont see 4 weeks being sufficient for him to recover from the GC.
The Package - will he runs in this have only had one previous run this season with his main aim being the 3m chase at the festival where he finished 4th ? They might send him to the Grade 3 3m h'cap chase at the same meeting over regulation fences. I cant see Mullins running all of his. They wont all like Aintree! Deep Purple finished distressed last time out so debateable. |
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Is Weird Al a definate ? PU last time, they might save him for another crack at the Charlie Hall.
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WER definately runs. He only missed his prep because they did not want to risk jarring him up on the quick going at Donny.
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Pearlysteps pulled-up at the weekend, making it two races in a row now. I cant see him running tbh.
So basically Pete, i'd be very surprised if GC did not get in! |
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Good man Sint. Thanks.
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with the ground conditions clearly a concern i cannot see the dartnals risking him round aintree and the fact hes now been quoted for irish equivalent makes 16-1 a far better betting proposition for this race than aintree imo ( how do english ratings relate in irish races ??? )
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Yep they have said they will consider Ireland if the Going does not look suitable in Aintree.
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looks to be on a 6lb better mark in the English race
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Really like Giles Cross.
But he needs soft ground. Despite the clerk of the course's best efforts to keep the large expanse of Aintree on the soft side of good. It is an unequal battle with the forecast until Easter most likely to be dry. So in my opinion he has no chance and may not even run. |
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RP weekender 28/3 Alan King
Of the key players for liverpool WEST END ROCKER is in terrific form and I can't wait to get him there. Although he prefers some give I am sure they will ensure we get good safe ground. His long absence from the track is purely down to the fact that I protected his handicap mark until the weights were announced and then the ground went too quick for him at Doncaster where we planned his prep run |
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if ground better than GS it won't run
47/1 now |
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Victor Dartnall is aiming Giles Cross at Aintree rather than take him to Fairyhouse for the Irish equivalent on Monday, but he too would love to see some rain on Merseyside for his Haydock Grand National Trial winner.
"It looks as though he'll be going to Aintree now because the ground isn't soft enough for him over in Ireland," said the Devon trainer. "It's more likely to be softer at Aintree. It is softer there at the moment and hopefully they will get some more rain. "He's in great form and let's hope we are able to run him. "He should get in the race now as there are a few to come out." Giles Cross, who was 15 lengths ahead of Cappa Bleu when second to Le Beau Bai in the Welsh National, will have a different jockey on board as his regular partner, Denis O'Regan, is unable to ride at 10st 1lb. "Denis can't do the weight and the ones at the top are staying in," Dartnall went on. "It's a shame as he gets on so well with him. We've got someone in mind but we haven't decided yet. "The horse is in great order and if it was good to soft ground it would be brilliant for him." |
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What chance is there of soft ground,because i think good to soft is no good.
I have had my fingers burnt with these types before. Good jumper,placed form in nationals,won a valuable race,but all his best form is on heavy |