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Grand National
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These 230 comments are related to the topic:
Grand National Analysis - Mordin Style (long post)
Grand National Analysis - Mordin Style (long post)
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Replies: 230
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might take some time though
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great trial by Quinz today
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Agreed judo, very encouraging.
I normally look around the 72nd to 77th horses on the list for the cut off point, that brings in backstage through to Cloudy lane. |
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Thought Rare Bob ran a solid trial today and came out best at the National weights in the Bobbyjo. Looks like he's being trained for it and hopefully will get a run and good ground.
Any chance according to the list Judo? |
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yes on the list quite well up there in the top 20 iirc( It's all quite tight down to 20 ish places so I am concentrating on the ones at the top and the ones who have RPRs much higher than the BHA mark they are set to run off)
a few negatives on other trends not on the list and I've dismissed him solely because of the number of races he has had which seems a major negative but there's nothing to say he can't run well I have a (long) short list of 13 like in the OP of this thread and I will post it up nearer the race but Rare Bob is not on it I can tell you. Be interesting to see Mordins list eventually |
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Cheers Judo. Got him at real fancy prices and will hope for the best.
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that's what I'm doing, getting on at fancy prices and hoping they shorten up to smear the green all round, well at least break even no matter what - not specifically looking for the winner now especially with trials still to come
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have just took the 16/1 ew CAPPA BLEU with laddies..hoping for a good run at least..
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he is 3rd or 4th on my list and very very solid
give a good run for the money if he gets round safely GL |
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Hi judorick. Any news on your analysis for which will be roughly the last horse do scrape into the National?
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something like Matuhi who was 66 on the original list? maybe 4 or 5 lower than him which was...Major Malarkey
wouldn't worry, all those right at the bottom have little chance in all probability |
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I have my own derivitive of one of Mordin's older scoring methods. Can't abide elimination method. Alfier Sherrin is also towards the top of my list along with The Package (until his injury Organisedconfusion scored very heavily so will back early and speculatively for next year). Nevertheless I knew from a very long way off that Poker De Sivola would also score heavily and have some very fancy prices in the win and in particular the TBP market. Ferdy is doing his usual in saying the plan will now be next year but if (on paper it looks a big if but expect plenty to still drop out) he does get in I anticipate a big run as long as we're racing on anything better than soft. No point putting all his eggs in one basket for 2014, only for it to come up a bog and scupper any chance. Anyway, he's still in the entries despite what Ferdy said so make of that what you will.
My main concern re Alfie Sherrin and The Package is the stallions terrible record over four miles thus far. I hope that dual Ascot GC winner Kayf Tara's progeny are late developers because his offspring is building an unimpressive record over four miles plus. Of course The Package and Alfie Sherrin have already failed to complete over the distance and Planet Of Sound conked out alarmingly last year. Thankfully, much of a horse's stamina is derived from the dam and Alfie Sherrin hails from the family of Whitbread winner and one time GN favourite Beau. Out of him and The Package it is definitely Alfie I have more faith in. He is a truly massive horse in terms of his scope. Look at him in the JLT last year compared to Fruity. He's twice the length! But the jury is most definitely out re Kayf Tara as a sire of extreme distance winners. Carruthers has won over 3m 4f but the furthest distance one has won over is 3m 6f when Dermatologiste won a low graded affair. I'm on but I'm in no way convinced....yet. |
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how does quel esprit fare judo? a french bred grey will do me again
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How do Auroras Encore and Any Currency fit on the trends? Just looking at some lowly weighted outsiders who look like they will stay.
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Oh and Across the Bay too please!
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am hoping and praying Poker de sivola gets in be game on then massive price this horse ew
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Waiting to see what Mordin himself comes up with in the Weekender on the Wednesday before the race
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I will be posting my selection(s) next week, interesting stuff
need to see which end up in the Irish National first |
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Be interesting to see what it is. I'm really struggling to find a strong fancy this year so need all the help I can get. Stuck on Seabass and Cappa Bleu at the minute but not feeling overly great with Seabass carrying more weight and Cappa Bleu feels more of a placed rather than winning horse to me.
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Cappa Bleu is very strong, well weighted and has a huge chance, I am on for a decent win GCW
you are right about Seabass. I have him breaking even right now, but he will struggle to confirm form with Cappa at the weights, certainly needs to improve plenty to win. My advice is always to have several running for you (like 7 to 13 runners) and to give yourself the most chances of collecting |
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What you keep on hearing all the time is to look out for horses who have "Run well in the race beforehand" it may have yielded some place returns, but apart from Amberleigh House and Hello Dandy, you'd have to go back to the Red Rum era to find a winner of the race who'd previously hit the frame in a previous National
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How many of those who ran well managed to get back in off a lower mark the next year?
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I wouldn't be taking 12s now but the ante post 26 before the Ascot race was good odds
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judo,whats left on your shortlist
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will be posting analysis next week mate
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so you have not had a antepost bet yet
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Will look forward to you analysis, Rick.
I've just sent you a pm. And now you've disappeared  I'm off out now. Be back in a while. |
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*your
This friggin forum. I'm sure there's a gremlin in here that tampers with our posts in transit  |
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I have had hundreds of ante post bets, backed and laid 20+ horses many many times since the weights came out, some are non runners (backed Alfie Sherrin, laid Prince de Beauchene, Wyck Hill, Katenko)
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I'm on 6. Doubt I will do any more.
Seabass @ 14.64 Cappa Bleu @ 15.54 Chicago Grey @ 18.49 Sunnyhill Boy @ 28 Rare Bob @ 38 Quinz @ 105 Best result (obviously) is Quinz. Worst winning result Seabass would be a 3-1 winning bet. GL |
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IS THIS LAD still about ????????
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